NL 12TO STretegies and Battle Reviews

[frae]

Pierre for $15? You get extra credit for SB by pinch runners?

The very sad truth, my 3 year old had a break down just before it was my turn to toss. I had Nyger Morgan in my que. While dealing with the melt down I came back to find that Morgan had came and gone. That money was to go to Nyger, there was no one left. Big DOH moment!

[roadtrip68]

Wish I would have came on here earlier today. Reading this thread is the highlight to a pretty crappy day. My MCCrushers came into the auction knowing inflation would be crazy. I love the competitiveness of this league but I am still trying to grasp spending the big money on the few big name guys available each year at the beginning of the draft. Inflation is crazy to say the least. I too had Holliday targeted along with Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Cuddyer. Fifty was also my limit on Holliday and forty on Zimmerman. After Holliday hit fifty, Zimmerman $45, and then Wright $43 I knew I was in trouble (that and glitch with CBS not allowing me to see what was being said on the message bar during the first part of the auction). I had a strong feeling that closers would be going for stupid money as there were not going to be very many available. I made a trade in the off season for Axford (along with Chris Young) and had Jansen already as a keeper so I was hoping to get a few set up guys who might strike it rich during the season. My starters were set as I have two more years of a cheap Kershaw, Wainwright (who I snagged last season), and Tommy Hanson (who I just extended for a year). Here is what I look like-

C HUNDLEY 8
1B LONEY 15 (KEEPER)
2B R ROBERTS 1 (KEEPER)
3B LOWRIE 16
SS S CASTRO 5 (KEEPER)
MI BLOOMQUIST 3
CI PACHECO 6
OF BELT 20, KUBEL 32, PENCE 15 (KEEPER), C YOUNG 24 (KEEPER), J RIVERA 10
UT BERNADINA 3, R TEJADA 7
BENCH-UTLEY 14, H SANCHEZ 1, J CONSTANZA 1, W ROSARIO FARM

SP KERSHAW 15 (KEEPER), WAINWRIGHT 5 (KEEPER), HANSON 10 (KEEPER), NOLASCO 12, VOLSTAD 1, BURNETT 4
RP AXFORD 21 (KEEPER), JANSEN 8 (KEEPER), PARNELL 4, R RAMIREZ 2, BASTRADO 1

[Don Quixote]

I had a poor keeper list, but I had money to spend for once. C. Ruiz $9, Prado $6, McGehee $8 (extended him last year, had to keep, ugh), Jay $3, LaHair $2, Pagan $4, J. Garcia $1, Niese $5, Putz $31, Wolf $5.

My plan, such as it was--Get off my a** and buy early at somewhere near reasonable inflation-adjusted prices, then sit back for a while, let others spend, and save a few bucks for the endgame.

Results--Well, I didn't get the particular guys I wanted, mostly because I wouldn't go over $54 for Hanley, $33 for Gallardo, $50 (!) for Holliday, or over market for a 2nd closer (I'd already kept Putz for $31). Early buys were Rollins $40, Chipper $10 (a WTF bid on a player I've never owned), Aaron Hill $20, Wandy $17, and Maybin $38 (I wanted him and wasn't going to be denied).

Moving into the middle rounds--Polanco $11 to boost a poor team BA, Cahill $19, Arroyo $1 crickets, Helton $15, Mujica $4 to help ERA/WHIP. Sat out a couple of rounds, then bought Coghlan $5, Karstens $3, Masset $1 (I know he's hurt), Barmes $3 to get to Dollar Daze. The rest is silence.

Rotolab prediction--frae 1st, Salamanders 2nd (went from "table bully" to first to Dollar Daze), Big Tymer, Dangerfield Rodneys, me, Crushers, Bucco Ball (kracker), Angry Young Man, Stomp, Sh*thouse Rats, Warriors (joncarlos), and eld. Considering that it had me in last pre-auction, I guess I did OK. Of course, computer predictions are pretty worthless, but it's nice to not be at or near the bottom anyway.

My gut feeling--I think power may be a problem on the offensive side. Pitching-wise, it looks good for wins and Ks, not so good at all for ERA/WHIP, and for now I have only one closer. However, I feel like I have a decent team and look forward to the season.

[gcstomp]

I see a first post on board from Salamanders. Big welcome to the bullpen. That is a positive to the board right there. Love your team Eddie!

Another thought I had was just toss the old damaged guys out at my toss to drain some bucks. My 1st toss was R Howard, someone went $29. Would he have gone so much a few rounds later? My next toss was Chase Utley who went $14. My next toss was Chipper Jones $10, who at that point was reasonable I think. Would it have made any difference in their prices if they were tossed out later, to their salaries?

[joncarlos]

curious - can you guys talk about how the astros move to the al in 2013 affected your strategies going in? did you plan to avoid houston players going in? or take them only at steep discounts? or collect them at low prices to trade later? just wondering how that situation played out, since i have an nl-only keeper auction coming up this weekend.

The only time I really thought about it was when Lyles came up for bid. The Astros are so horrible this year, and don't have a ton of interesting guys, so if I can't keep Bud Norris or Chris Johnson next year I don't really care. I don't expect them to become breakout stars so I'm happy just to use them for this year and throw them away. Since they didn't come at a discount I can only assume everyone else felt the same way.

[gcstomp]

Farm draft done. Update, I made about 10 mistakes in my rebuild process. No, 12, heck, make it a bakers dozen of errors. But I think this team will carry me for some money finishes for the next 5 years with a targeted rebuild in 2017, but per Mayan calendar all that long term planning may be for naught. Definitely did not end up with best team but I think it is very loaded with long term value and I feel will be a year after year top 4 finisher.

Farm: Anthony Rendon, Rymer Lirano, Cory Spangenberg, Matt Dominguez, Jon Singleton (who I will lose unless Astros trade him to an NL team in next year), Dan Vogelbach, James Tailion, Archie Bradley

[BubbaJack]

It's probably to early for a draft review, but I'm in first place, and I'm going to take advantage of it! I've been extremely lucky so far. M Morse was one of my better keepers, I thought, and he hasn't played at all this year. I threw out Lohse and Saunders for a buck in dollar daze, in all honesty thinking someone would bid two, and give me a better shot at grabbing a couple of middle relievers that could net me a few saves. They have been my best pitchers so far. I'm second in the league in saves, and I have one closer. Do I think I can hold on? In my opinion, I have a top three team. I have a couple of great trade pieces in Harper and Arenado. I don't want to trade either honestly, but how often do you get a chance to win a 12 team league with so many great owners? I think I'd be a fool honestly, to not trade at least one if I crunched the numbers and thought I could win. That is a long way off of course, but I'm already thinking about it. Which should show you I don't have a whole lot else to do with my spare time. I don't think I have the best team, but sometimes the best team on paper doesn't win, so I am optimistic.

[gcstomp]

Your Salamanders have been running away with it so far. I think you have set yourself up very nicely for a run this year if you were so inclined to move your farm guys in trade. As lucky as you have been with a couple of your $1 pitchers, Lohse and Saunders, your entire lineup has solid performers. I knew from time we left auction your team looked great for a run.

As always, Stomp has been active on trade front. Jettisoned Stanton, future hr king, for some useful but non elite parts, and patched up some major holes. The new Stanton owner will probably extend him to $20 G2016, so the trade has room to cause me grief for years. I love that I bombed with a $22 B Wilson, acquire a $20 Frank Fran who trashes my ratios in his 1st week on my team, huzzah. I hate closers.

[gcstomp]

Necro thread update. I am in 1st by a few points as of today, but that changes with Salamanders on a near daily basis. Top 3 Points look like 87 (our hero, Stomp), 78 tie w/Salamanders + Bucco. I fully expect standings to be very tight over next few weeks. Salamanders acquired huge value in recent deals, and is not only capped out, but has like $150 in overcap players sitting on bench, waiting for all star break cap to lift. Last years winner, Dangerfield, in 5th at 69 points, also acquired huge amount of value in recent deals. I am pretty sure the Dangerfield deal was the largest in league history, involving 22 players. Some staggeringly huge deals went down, I felt like it was a fireworks display. In the Macy's lingerie department. I had an outer body experience when I saw a team mascot traded away for a shipment of corked bats (Sammy says they are just for pregame batting practice).

I may be in 1st by a few points, but am despondent over my loss of Stanton. End of april, Mighty Mike (he will always be Mike to me) and his zero homers, bad knees, rumor of lingering pain all year, I traded away for a middling pack of useful non star players. This act propelled my less than sterling team to present day 1st placetude. But of course the boy who would be king has roared back to life since then, hitting a record 40 homers in may (its how it feels to me). Yes, if I could do it over again, I would not trade Stanton, even though I am pretty sure I will end up in a money spot (top 4), and would not have been in same spot without trade.

As a talking point, maybe worth discussing, is cost. In a tight keeper league such as NL 12TO, at what cost should you go for the gold? It appears we have 2 camps of view in the league, with the go for the gold types, they have teams that place year after year at the ends of the rankings, either right near 1st, or right near last, depending on the rebuild or go for it stage they are in. And we have a pack of modest movers, who live in the middle of the rankings every year. Should 2 such different animals live in same tribe? It almost feels like we have people playing 2 different games

[Big Tymer]

It was 18 players and 4 picks to be clear I actually had to go back and check since when you wrote 22 players that just seemed absurd but technically it's true.

Crazy deal but he came to me with the offer and I can't imagine I could have done better. In terms of your point on teams that trade off between 1st and last and others in the middle, I personally think that is pretty normal. Not sure which camp you'd classify me into but personally if I'm not going for it I'm looking to get better for next year. Finishing 4th is empty imo and hence I dumped with a pretty decent team to be more than that next year.

[gcstomp]

NL 5x5 12TO year in review. Welcome comments from anyone but especially 12TO participants.

Great race, after leading for 5+ months, Stomp lost lead with days to go. Then crawled back and ended up winning 102 to 98.5. I am sure I gave up more talent than anyone to get there, the early trade of Stanton will haunt me for years I am sure. Just a stupid move on my part, giving away that kid. Going into 2013, my rough keeper list looks like:
Pitchers: Dickey $7, Cueto $20, Hamels $29, A Chapman $5, Cishek $1
Hitters: 1b T Colvin $4, 2b B Phillips $31, 3b Frazier $5, OF G Jones $13 + 1 of either Duda $1, Denorfia $3, Bourn $37

Lets look back at the original big budget auction buys, as posted in start of thread. In hindsight, we have some shocking overpays:
50 MC Crushers $32 Kubel, Jason (OF ARI)
49 Angry Young Man $15 Quentin, Carlos (OF SD)
46 Dangerfield Rodneys $14 Drew, Stephen (SS ARI)
45 Velvet Steamroller $38 Maybin, Cameron (OF SD)
37 Big Tymers $11 Carpenter, Chris (P STL)
26 Minor Threat $40 Ethier, Andre (OF LAD)
25 Velvet Steamroller $10 Jones, Chipper (3B ATL)
20 Stomp! $50 Holliday, Matt (OF STL)
19 Stomp! $22 Wilson, Brian (P SF)
18 Dangerfield Rodneys $33 Cain, Matt (P SF)
17 Franco Prussian Warriors $37 Weeks, Rickie (2B MIL)
16 Franco Prussian Warriors $23 Montero, Miguel (C ARI)
15 The Rats $34 Papelbon, Jonathan (P PHI)
14 Big Tymers $33 Bell, Heath (P MIA)
13 MC Crushers $14 Utley, Chase (2B PHI)
12 Minor Threat $15 Soto, Geovany (C CHC)
11 Dangerfield Rodneys $33 Gallardo, Yovani (P MIL)
10 The Rats $26 Gonzalez, Gio (P WAS)
9 Angry Young Man $30 Cabrera, Melky (OF SF)
8 Minor Threat $43 Wright, David (3B NYM)
7 MC Crushers $20 Belt, Brandon (OF SF)
6 Stomp! $41 Victorino, Shane (OF PHI)
5 Velvet Steamroller $40 Rollins, Jimmy (SS PHI)
4 Bucco Ball $59 Tulowitzki, Troy (SS COL)
3 Bucco Ball $45 Zimmerman, Ryan (3B WAS)
2 Angry Young Man $54 Ramirez, Hanley (SS MIA)
1 The Rats $29 Howard, Ryan (1B PHI)

Can we say, in this particular league where early spending is always especially heavy, a wise move would be to conserve cash for 3rd round on? The team that did just that, Salamanders, did very well. Came in 3rd while retaining the golden egg, a $5 B Harper.

[Fresno Bob]

Flags fly forever...congrats!

[Big Tymer]

Not sure there is a one size fits all strategy that will work in this league. Ultimately with how competitive this league is you really need to just not buy the "wrong" guys and have the chips with keepers and young players to overcome draft mistakes with in season deals. Losing the Astros (while not a ton of talent) is only going to thin the pool out more so the true studs will still be going in the 50-60 range (and maybe Braun higher next year).

Carpenter at $11 might not have helped me this year but at that price he will be well worth a spot on the 2013 Big Tymers.

[BubbaJack]

The team that finished 3rd also finished 3rd the season before so I don't think that not paying top dollar for studs would automatically result in success. I think your keeper list should dictate where you spend money and how much you are willing to spend for a particular player. I nabbed Laroche for 20 and and Desmond for 23 and neither would have been considered bargains at those prices before the season began last year. All and all with the keeper list I had going in I opted to spread the risk on the players I drafted and still I made good buys and bad, just like everyone else. You won GC, perhaps your strategy was best.