2K11: Matt Kemp

[DJBeasties]

Last year he was a shiny-new Top 5 OF pick. Now the wheels came off and he's probably undervalued.

Three straight years of 600+ ABs and the first time in his career that he did not outperform his xBA by a large margin. Hit rate was now from career norms of 35% to 30% despite barely a change in his G/F/L splits.

Struggled vs RHP particularly in the 2nd half when his RC/G fell to a pedestrian 4.04 and of course he has off the field/manager issues and gets bounced around the lineup a lot.

I don't know that we'll get another $34 year from him in 2011 but I think $28 would be a reasonable expectation given the hit rate correction that will occur.

Only question to be is what's going on in his head and when will he grow up?

[joncarlos]

He was also an atrocious base-stealer last year, going 19 for 34. At least they let him keep running.

K rate was up a lot, LD% has declined for 3 straight years which explains the drop in AVG, but he is still hitting 20% line drives and the HR/FB didn't fall off.

Remember, this is a guy who only hit .290 with a .361 BABIP in 2008, so AVG isn't going to be his strong suit. But I can see him in the high .260s/low .270s, with 30 HR and 25 steals.

[joncarlos]

I think you're reading Kemp's BABIP as it pertains to his BA really wrong, JC.

The dude is a line drive machine. His LD%, both in terms of career and 2010, would indicate that his BABIP would be somewhere in the range of .320. Now, I know that the ol' "LD% plus 120" isn't perfect, but it generally is adequate for projecting xBABIP. And while you mention that he "only" hit .290 when his BABIP was .361, you fail to mention that he hit .297 when his BABIP was .345 the next year --- higher BA and lower BABIP.

Fair enough... but he had a .295 BABIP last year and hit .249. Give him back 25 points to get to .320 and maybe he hits a couple more HRs so his average is around .265. Maybe he bounces all the way back, but I just don't think he's a .290 hitter without an awful lot of luck.

[The Dane]

He may bounce back, but he'll do so on someone else's team. I'd take him on the cheap, but I know there are at least two people in each of my leagues who will bid on him like last year never happened. I also doubt he'll hit .290. I could see .265, 32 HRs, and 18 SBs. I could also see him run out of LA on a rail. That team is in turmoil and he may not have the demeanor to be a gentleman in the face of all of it.

[joncarlos]

After almost 2500 plate appearances, I think we have a pretty good understanding of what Kemp's skill set is. I think that .320 is still a low BABIP to project for him, particularly given that he hits the ball on a rope every single year. My point is still that he hit .297 with a BABIP of .345 in 2009. His career BABIP, lousy 2010 included, is .344. So which then would be the more reasonable type of season to project for a kid that's still just 26 years old? Before 2010 he had NEVER had a BABIP lower than .330 at any level of professional baseball, ever, and that was in a small 166 PA stint at the major league level in 2006.

The kid hit .342, .290, and .297 in three consecutive years and all of a sudden hitting .290 is doubtful? Suddenly the outlier becomes the norm?

Let's see what happens with the K rate... it was up 6% from 2009 to 2010. Let's also see what happens with his speed... he missed a lot of balls in the outfield and got caught stealing a lot. The most likely cause is just that he's a dumbass or was too busy thinking about Rihanna. But he could have also lost a half a step. Yes, he crushes line drives like no one else in the game, but don't forget that a lot of people said that his 08/09 AVG looked a bit flukey, and now that it's actually happened it's possible that they were right. His FB% is also on a 3-year trend and those don't usually become hits unless they clear the fence.

If you're saying the line is .290 I'm taking the under and it's not close. If you're saying the line is .275 I'm probably still taking the under but I'll think about it a lot more.

[schlesinj]

Lopes really helped the flying Hawaiian with his SB numbers, so hopefully it helps Kemp.

[Wonderboy]

If you can get him early in the second round, he may pay off. I'd be nervous with him as my first round pick.

[joncarlos]

Avatar bet time!!!! Woooooooooooooooooo!

OK. If Kemp hits over .290 I will use the avatar of your choosing from 10-15-11 until 12-15-11. If he hits under .290, I get to pick one for you for the same time frame. Fair?

[The Dane]

The thing about Kemp for me is that there is no way to separate what is a skills erosion and what is "dogging it" so the statistical debate on him is near-useless, in my opinion. I'll look more to the attitude of Kemp than his performance in Spring Training, because if he's "good" than he's a top-five OF... if he's disgruntled -even in a minor way- he's not worth what you'll have to pay to get him.

Just my thoughts.