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There aren't many players in the majors that are shorter than me, but the 5'5 Altuve is one of them. He terrorized the minor leagues in 2011, putting up some numbers that would be unbelievable in a video game:
High-A: 404/447/601
Double-A: 361/388/569
After that he was promoted to the majors as a 21-year old and held his own, hitting .276 in 234 PAs. Unfortunately, his walk rate was even worse than it was in the minors, resulting in a .297 OBP. He only struck out in 12.4% of his ABs and did manage a pair of HRs, so his BABIP was "just" .309, leaving room for his AVG to improve.
Altuve also stole 7 bases in his 57 games, leading to visions of a 20-steal, .290 average, 6-8 HR season for the Astros. (Actually, both ZIPS and Bill James have him projected for 10 HRs, and ZIPS has him down for 33 steals).
Here is some context for Altuve's value - NL 2Bs in his range from the LABR auction:
Neil Walker $20
Ryan Roberts $19
Rickie Weeks $19
Daniel Murphy $17
Altuve $17
Danny Espinosa $16
Aaron Hill $15
Those must have been some crazy auction dynamics... I'd pay $5 more for Weeks than any of those guys. But that's 7 of the 16ish 2Bs in the NL right there, all in the same range, and if the auction was done again the $22 Utley would also be in the middle of this group.
Altuve is young, he doesn't walk, he probably won't hit for a ton of power and he isn't going to be in a good lineup. But he will definitely be a plus player in AVG and give you good speed. Ultimately his value comes down to that speed. He stole 24 bases in 87 minor league games, but I'm just not convinced he's a 30-steal guy in the majors this year.
If you can get him cheap because he's not well known in your league then he's probably a bargain. But in a knowledgeable league, he'll probably be overpriced because someone is in love with him. (Possibly someone who listens to the Up and In Podcast)
Where will he hit in the lineup? MLBDC has him hitting 8th, but with Schafer and Lowrie hitting 1-2. If that's right I would think Altuve can force his way to the top of the lineup.
I'll go with 145 games, .288-7-55-60r-23sb
High-A: 404/447/601
Double-A: 361/388/569
After that he was promoted to the majors as a 21-year old and held his own, hitting .276 in 234 PAs. Unfortunately, his walk rate was even worse than it was in the minors, resulting in a .297 OBP. He only struck out in 12.4% of his ABs and did manage a pair of HRs, so his BABIP was "just" .309, leaving room for his AVG to improve.
Altuve also stole 7 bases in his 57 games, leading to visions of a 20-steal, .290 average, 6-8 HR season for the Astros. (Actually, both ZIPS and Bill James have him projected for 10 HRs, and ZIPS has him down for 33 steals).
Here is some context for Altuve's value - NL 2Bs in his range from the LABR auction:
Neil Walker $20
Ryan Roberts $19
Rickie Weeks $19
Daniel Murphy $17
Altuve $17
Danny Espinosa $16
Aaron Hill $15
Those must have been some crazy auction dynamics... I'd pay $5 more for Weeks than any of those guys. But that's 7 of the 16ish 2Bs in the NL right there, all in the same range, and if the auction was done again the $22 Utley would also be in the middle of this group.
Altuve is young, he doesn't walk, he probably won't hit for a ton of power and he isn't going to be in a good lineup. But he will definitely be a plus player in AVG and give you good speed. Ultimately his value comes down to that speed. He stole 24 bases in 87 minor league games, but I'm just not convinced he's a 30-steal guy in the majors this year.
If you can get him cheap because he's not well known in your league then he's probably a bargain. But in a knowledgeable league, he'll probably be overpriced because someone is in love with him. (Possibly someone who listens to the Up and In Podcast)
Where will he hit in the lineup? MLBDC has him hitting 8th, but with Schafer and Lowrie hitting 1-2. If that's right I would think Altuve can force his way to the top of the lineup.
I'll go with 145 games, .288-7-55-60r-23sb
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