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Holland is getting some nice play as a sleeper this year. He threw 24 innings in the playoffs, had a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 3.38 despite getting hammered by the Tigers in the ALCS. During that time he had 14 Ks and 8 walks. Holland also signed a team-friendly 5-year extension, guaranteeing he'll be a Ranger for a while.
In the regular season Holland threw 198 innings and went 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. For those of you who believe in the Verducci rule, he threw about 130 innings in 2010 and about 220 in 2011 when you count the playoffs and his time in the minors.
His 2011 indicators: 7.36 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 46.4% GB rate, 11% HR/FB, 3.94 FIP and 3.76 xFIP. He also threw an impressive 4 shutouts for the season.
Bill James has him at 188 IP, 4.07 ERA and 156 Ks. ZIPS likes him even less than that, at 173 IP, 4.16 ERA and 141 Ks. But both of those are regression-based and see Holland's 2009 struggles as relevant... I'm not sure if they are.
AL LABR prices:
Darvish $18
Morrow $15
Holland $14
Hellickson $14
McCarthy $14
E Santana $13
C Buchholz $13
Fister $12
I'm posting a poll question - for an AL only league, would you take Holland and $4, or would you take Darvish? I think most people would take Darvish. Lately I'm wondering if that's the right call.
I do worry about Holland's arm a little bit, but Mike Maddux and the Rangers know what they're doing. I can see 200 innings, 14-15 wins, a 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 165 Ks for Holland.
If you believe in first/second half splits, Holland was 7-4, 4.68 ERA, 2.00 K/BB before the all-star break and 9-1, 3.06 ERA, 3.1 K/BB in the second half.... K's went up AND walks went down.
In the regular season Holland threw 198 innings and went 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. For those of you who believe in the Verducci rule, he threw about 130 innings in 2010 and about 220 in 2011 when you count the playoffs and his time in the minors.
His 2011 indicators: 7.36 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 46.4% GB rate, 11% HR/FB, 3.94 FIP and 3.76 xFIP. He also threw an impressive 4 shutouts for the season.
Bill James has him at 188 IP, 4.07 ERA and 156 Ks. ZIPS likes him even less than that, at 173 IP, 4.16 ERA and 141 Ks. But both of those are regression-based and see Holland's 2009 struggles as relevant... I'm not sure if they are.
AL LABR prices:
Darvish $18
Morrow $15
Holland $14
Hellickson $14
McCarthy $14
E Santana $13
C Buchholz $13
Fister $12
I'm posting a poll question - for an AL only league, would you take Holland and $4, or would you take Darvish? I think most people would take Darvish. Lately I'm wondering if that's the right call.
I do worry about Holland's arm a little bit, but Mike Maddux and the Rangers know what they're doing. I can see 200 innings, 14-15 wins, a 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 165 Ks for Holland.
If you believe in first/second half splits, Holland was 7-4, 4.68 ERA, 2.00 K/BB before the all-star break and 9-1, 3.06 ERA, 3.1 K/BB in the second half.... K's went up AND walks went down.
- Wonderboy
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