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I wrote this in the 2k12 Pirates thread but I am curious to get some other thoughts on Presley.
Everything I've heard this spring has been positive. Coaches are impressed. He can really barrel the ball. He leads the Pirates in ABs and has a line of .333/.375/.467 this spring (with 2 walks and 6 Ks). He'll probably hit leadoff with Tabata in the 2 hole.
It's not in my sabermetric nature to trust a guy with zero ability to take a walk. But sometimes the hit tool is just there and you have to go with it. In order for me to be convinced I need to see a better contact rate. I'll buy a 4% walk rate and 12% K rate before I'll buy a 4% walk rate and a 19% K rate.
He will definitely be a fantasy asset if he hits .285 with 20+ steals and 80+ runs, which is something he can do. With a contact rate of 85% or better his AVG is going to be a plus. He just needs to get there. A lot of people think he can. I want to believe but I'm not sure I do.
July: 70 AB, .343 AVG, 8.9% walk rate, 13.9% K rate, .407 BABIP
Sept: 107 AB, .308 AVG, 2.7% walk rate, 20.9% K rate, .370 BABIP
Do I think he can be a high BABIP guy? Yes. Is he a pretty good baserunner and an asset in LF? Yes. But pitchers caught on pretty quick and started challenging him. So the most likely result is an empty .280 hitter next year.
Sept: 107 AB, .308 AVG, 2.7% walk rate, 20.9% K rate, .370 BABIP
Do I think he can be a high BABIP guy? Yes. Is he a pretty good baserunner and an asset in LF? Yes. But pitchers caught on pretty quick and started challenging him. So the most likely result is an empty .280 hitter next year.
It's not in my sabermetric nature to trust a guy with zero ability to take a walk. But sometimes the hit tool is just there and you have to go with it. In order for me to be convinced I need to see a better contact rate. I'll buy a 4% walk rate and 12% K rate before I'll buy a 4% walk rate and a 19% K rate.
He will definitely be a fantasy asset if he hits .285 with 20+ steals and 80+ runs, which is something he can do. With a contact rate of 85% or better his AVG is going to be a plus. He just needs to get there. A lot of people think he can. I want to believe but I'm not sure I do.
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