Value calculations question

[Todd Zola]

in this case, morneau has 24 more runs 25 more rbi 5 more hr and 35 points of BA over Napoli. Napoli hass 5 more steals. Napoli is valued 2 dollars higher.

Like I said, speaking in generalities.

In 12 team mixed leagues with 2 catchers, the bump is usually $8-$9. 15-team mixed is $6 or $7. 12-tam AL/13-team NL, it is $1-$2.

[Don Quixote]

It's a constant debate, absolute value vs. relative value, and it's one for which there is no one right answer IMO. Napoli's numbers carry more weight relatively, because the average catcher's numbers are well behind his and the average 1B's numbers aren't nearly as far behind Morneau's. The question is whether/how much to pay for that relative advantage. In this case, being averse to bad BAs, I don't value Napoli over Morneau, but neither do I value him much below.

I have no fixed way of dealing with this issue. I let the auction dynamic decide things. Take value where you get it. Do I buy a crappy catcher and a good-but-not-great 1B, or a sub-par 1B and a better-but-not-absolutely-great C?

[Hornsby]

You also have to weigh in the real world here and now. Napoli might not get more than about 300 AB's this year. Washington has already said that he's not going to be catching much, and that Moreland is his 1st baseman...now add in the fact that Young appears to be untradeable, and you have a glut of players at the DH position.

I know that has nothing to to with the algorithms, but life has a way of intruding on neat scientific principals.

[Todd Zola]

It's a constant debate, absolute value vs. relative value, and it's one for which there is no one right answer IMO. Napoli's numbers carry more weight relatively, because the average catcher's numbers are well behind his and the average 1B's numbers aren't nearly as far behind Morneau's. The question is whether/how much to pay for that relative advantage. In this case, being averse to bad BAs, I don't value Napoli over Morneau, but neither do I value him much below.

I have no fixed way of dealing with this issue. I let the auction dynamic decide things. Take value where you get it. Do I buy a crappy catcher and a good-but-not-great 1B, or a sub-par 1B and a better-but-not-absolutely-great C?

This is why I believe that static values generated from static projections are a snapshot guide and that the real focus should be on intrinsic value to your team, which is a meld of raw value, market value and what your team looks like and there is no algorithm that can account for that.

[Todd Zola]

You also have to weigh in the real world here and now. Napoli might not get more than about 300 AB's this year. Washington has already said that he's not going to be catching much, and that Moreland is his 1st baseman...now add in the fact that Young appears to be untradeable, and you have a glut of players at the DH position.

I know that has nothing to to with the algorithms, but life has a way of intruding on neat scientific principals.

The flip side is an injury or struggle to any one of 5 or so opens up more time for Napoli. My money is on someone getting hurt or struggling. I can't tell you if it will be Kinsler, Beltre, Moreland, Torrealba or Young, but I can tell you odds are it is one of them.

[Hornsby]

The flip side is an injury or struggle to any one of 5 or so opens up more time for Napoli. My money is on someone getting hurt or struggling. I can't tell you if it will be Kinsler, Beltre, Moreland, Torrealba or Young, but I can tell you odds are it is one of them.

Ok...lets say that you're right and the odds are with you. How much are you willing to spend on that? Full face value based on the assumption of injury to someone else? Or do you discount a Napoli type at that point..and how much if you do?

[Todd Zola]

Ok...lets say that you're right and the odds are with you. How much are you willing to spend on that? Full face value based on the assumption of injury to someone else? Or do you discount a Napoli type at that point..and how much if you do?

This will incorporate the thoughts of the other comment about weaving market and intrinsic value into my bid value. There is no formula and will differ from draft to draft, as his market and intrinsic values will differ from draft to draft.

But I need a jumping off point. My current forecast if for 60% playing time, batting 6th. This equates to 410 plate appearances (note, not at bats).

My first chore is to gauge my value versus others in the league. Do I anticipate more of less playing time than others? If I anticipate more, the value added is already accounted for. While I am anti-ADP, this is a general use of an ADP, to help me decide where I value Napoli versus the masses.

Then I need to consider the current makeup of my roster and how I anticipate it looking at the end of the day. This is the intrinsic value. Players like Napoli with a very distinct profile -- big power, low average -- need to fit in the right puzzle. Based upon the composition of my team at the time and what I envision adding to it, I may decide that Kurt Suzuki, a player whose raw value is similar, may be a better fit.

Auctions are a little different, though it is easier to gauge market value because everyone that opens their mouth and spews out a number is setting market value. Here, I may pay more than my "projected" value for the upside if I already have a batting average buffer or anticipate getting one later.

What I don't do is say "add $2 for his upside and bid accordingly."

[Hornsby]

This will incorporate the thoughts of the other comment about weaving market and intrinsic value into my bid value. There is no formula and will differ from draft to draft, as his market and intrinsic values will differ from draft to draft.

But I need a jumping off point. My current forecast if for 60% playing time, batting 6th. This equates to 410 plate appearances (note, not at bats).

My first chore is to gauge my value versus others in the league. Do I anticipate more of less playing time than others? If I anticipate more, the value added is already accounted for. While I am anti-ADP, this is a general use of an ADP, to help me decide where I value Napoli versus the masses.

Then I need to consider the current makeup of my roster and how I anticipate it looking at the end of the day. This is the intrinsic value. Players like Napoli with a very distinct profile -- big power, low average -- need to fit in the right puzzle. Based upon the composition of my team at the time and what I envision adding to it, I may decide that Kurt Suzuki, a player whose raw value is similar, may be a better fit.

Auctions are a little different, though it is easier to gauge market value because everyone that opens their mouth and spews out a number is setting market value. Here, I may pay more than my "projected" value for the upside if I already have a batting average buffer or anticipate getting one later.

What I don't do is say "add $2 for his upside and bid accordingly."

Sounds good, thanks for the thoughtful answer...

[onejayhawk]

Todd once told me that when he is on his game, he owns the last third of the auction. He knows who needs what, and how much they can, or will, pay. Thus he can force them to spend the max, or steal the player, whichever makes more sense.

J