Ubaldo - ugh

[Moonlight J]

http://www.ohio.com/sports/indians/notebook-ubaldo-jimenez-far-from-dominant-form-1.275229

that's my big LABR investment

[RSF]

Velocity down last year and this; looking unfortunately like a case where 'normal' sabermetric indicator stats can lead one awry because there is something physically wrong there.

[Hornsby]

I don't think that there's anything physically wrong...he was hitting 96+ on his fastball the 2nd half of last year. And early reports in ST said that he was still hitting 95+ in spots. My guess is it's just a case of a guy who's lost his mechanics, and lost his control. Instead of hitting the corners in the mid 90's, he's now having to throw it so it gets more of the plate.

[Porcello]

Glad I've been avoiding him, something hasn't smelled right with him for some time. Haven't cared what the stats have said.

[RSF]

I don't think that there's anything physically wrong...he was hitting 96+ on his fastball the 2nd half of last year. And early reports in ST said that he was still hitting 95+ in spots. My guess is it's just a case of a guy who's lost his mechanics, and lost his control. Instead of hitting the corners in the mid 90's, he's now having to throw it so it gets more of the plate.

Not really---average FB down 3 MPH last year, so while he may or may not be hurt it's definitely not the case that his FB was unchanged, either.

[Hornsby]

Not really---average FB down 3 MPH last year, so while he may or may not be hurt it's definitely not the case that his FB was unchanged, either.

Ubaldo Jimenez was clocked consistently between 94-96 mph Sunday in his Cactus League debut.
Jimenez surrendered five runs in the start against the Reds, but only one of them was earned. The 28-year-old right-hander is trying to bounce back from a rough second half of the 2011 campaign. It's a positive sign that his fastball velocity is already in regular-season form. Mar 5 - 12:10 PM

Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

[Erik]

I do wonder if we have another Ricky Nolasco situation here.

[RSF]

Ubaldo Jimenez was clocked consistently between 94-96 mph Sunday in his Cactus League debut.
Jimenez surrendered five runs in the start against the Reds, but only one of them was earned. The 28-year-old right-hander is trying to bounce back from a rough second half of the 2011 campaign. It's a positive sign that his fastball velocity is already in regular-season form. Mar 5 - 12:10 PM

Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Unfortunately, the reality is that radar guns vary. So, to really understand what is going on with a particular pitcher one really has to compare apples-to-apples data, not just take a single number (especially not one where we can't identify the source). The point made was that his velo was down last year; that's just factually true, which one can see on fangraphs for example. Reports this year are all over the map (re-emphasizing the above point). It's possible that isn't indicative of an injury, but it's pretty rare for a drop like that not to reflect either age or injury and age is an unlikely issue in this particular case.

Keith Law has been on this issue with Jimenez for a while. If one thinks it isn't an issue, of course, that's a buying opportunity....

[Hornsby]

Unfortunately, the reality is that radar guns vary. So, to really understand what is going on with a particular pitcher one really has to compare apples-to-apples data, not just take a single number (especially not one where we can't identify the source). The point made was that his velo was down last year; that's just factually true, which one can see on fangraphs for example. Reports this year are all over the map (re-emphasizing the above point). It's possible that isn't indicative of an injury, but it's pretty rare for a drop like that not to reflect either age or injury and age is an unlikely issue in this particular case.

Keith Law has been on this issue with Jimenez for a while. If one thinks it isn't an issue, of course, that's a buying opportunity....

Sure they do, so what's to say that the guns showing him to be slower in MPH aren't the ones that are off? It's impossible to compare guns in every stadium unless they are all the same make, and all calibrated by the same person, the same way.

Either way, velocity is perhaps the most overrated asset that a pitcher has going for him. An average major league batter can hit a 95 MPH all day long if it's located poorly, and/or if it lacks movement. Hell, Jamie Moyer was getting guys out with regularity by throwing in the high 70's to low 80's.

[RSF]

Sure they do, so what's to say that the guns showing him to be slower in MPH aren't the ones that are off? It's impossible to compare guns in every stadium unless they are all the same make, and all calibrated by the same person, the same way.

Either way, velocity is perhaps the most overrated asset that a pitcher has going for him. An average major league batter can hit a 95 MPH all day long if it's located poorly, and/or if it lacks movement. Hell, Jamie Moyer was getting guys out with regularity by throwing in the high 70's to low 80's.

As I said above, using a source that seeks (at least in some way) to standardize the data it uses is going to be more accurate than not doing so. That's why I cited Fangraphs instead of one newspaper article. Obviously, everyone has to make their own choice there.

Certainly agree that velo isn't everything. The point made was that velo has been down over time, which is documented. That may reflect him doing things differently but when paired with troubling results...I see more of a 'stay away' than a 'buy' opportunity personally.

[Bodhizefa]

My least favorite part about the Arizona Spring Training games is whenever there's a news article, it always goes something like this...

Surprise: Franklin Gutierrez has a torn pectoral muscle!
Surprise: Ubaldo Jimenez' velocity is down!
Surprise: Everyone on your favorite team sucks or is about to get hurt!

Can't they move the games to a town where it doesn't feel like a gut punch to read the bad news?

[joncarlos]

Let's not forget that Ubaldo's peripherals were pretty damn good in 2011. His FIP was 3.67. He was primarily hurt by a terribly unlucky LOB% and the highest BABIP of his career.

So he lost his fastball and turned into Ricky Nolasco?

[Hornsby]

As I said above, using a source that seeks (at least in some way) to standardize the data it uses is going to be more accurate than not doing so. That's why I cited Fangraphs instead of one newspaper article. Obviously, everyone has to make their own choice there.

Certainly agree that velo isn't everything. The point made was that velo has been down over time, which is documented. That may reflect him doing things differently but when paired with troubling results...I see more of a 'stay away' than a 'buy' opportunity personally.

Except that you seem to be trying to say that his troubles are the result of the lowered velocity, while I think that going from an exceptional fastball, to a well above average one simply isn't enough to account for his troubles. Is he hiding an injury? I don't know, but I do believe that it would be hard to throw 94 consistently while hiding said injury.

At this point it's all speculation, and I do agree with you that he's someone to avoid. To that point, I dumped him and his 13 buck contract mid-season last year so I wouldn't have to pay a penalty for not keeping him this year. ELD is now the proud owner of Ubaldo, may he have more luck than I did last year.

And I would love to see some good documentation that losing MPH, but still averaging 93.5 results in a correlation in long term loss of effectiveness.

[RSF]

Except that you seem to be trying to say that his troubles are the result of the lowered velocity, while I think that going from an exceptional fastball, to a well above average one simply isn't enough to account for his troubles. Is he hiding an injury? I don't know, but I do believe that it would be hard to throw 94 consistently while hiding said injury.

At this point it's all speculation, and I do agree with you that he's someone to avoid. To that point, I dumped him and his 13 buck contract mid-season last year so I wouldn't have to pay a penalty for not keeping him this year. ELD is now the proud owner of Ubaldo, may he have more luck than I did last year.

And I would love to see some good documentation that losing MPH, but still averaging 93.5 results in a correlation in long term loss of effectiveness.

I don't think you followed me or several others posting here---so it goes.

[Hornsby]

I don't think you followed me or several others posting here---so it goes.

Nice...condescending much? That's a trait that'll certainly serve you well in life. And just for the record, I follow your argument just fine, I just don't happen to agree wholeheartedly with it.

And ELD...regarding your excerpted post, let's reverse that. If a pitcher gains a run, effectively lowering his ERA with a 4 MPH gain in velocity, doesn't it stand that with a 2.5 MPH decline in velo, that it should rise roughly 2/3ds of a run? So how do you explain Ubaldo giving up almost 2 more runs per game between 2010 and 2011. Maybe a look at his hits per 9 might tell a little tale? It rose more than 2 full hits, from 6.7 to 8.9 hits per game...indicating to me a lot more hittable pitches in the zone.