2k12: Brett Lawrie

[joncarlos]

AL LABR prices:

Longoria $33
Beltre $29
Lawrie $28
A-Rod $24
Youk $20
E-5 $19
Reynolds $17

Lawrie's 2011 stats: .293-9-25-26r-7sb in 43 games. Extrapolate that to 150 games and you get .293-31-87-88-24, and I think that's close to the level of production people are expecting when they bid him up so high. (Lawrie did hit .343-18hr-13sb in 69 games at AAA, so maybe it's not without reason)

Bill James has him down for 'only' .284-22hr-30sb, while ZIPS has .275-27hr-24sb. I think most people would be happy with either of those. But Lawrie is only 22, and isn't there a chance he could struggle a lot more than that? Is that kind of sustained SB production realistic for a full season?

If I had to put up a projection I'd go with about .275-27hr-18sb. Still very good but maybe not the wunderkind everyone is expecting.

[wannabegriffey]

Of all of the suggested stats you list, I think the line you offered...27/18...is the top end of his 2012 production. Lots of people are going to be disappointed...

[Sour Masher]

He's the real deal, but expectations are crazy high for him. My biggest worry as a Lawrie owner is his health. If he can stay healthy, I don't think anyone but the "anything but Braun at 3b is a bust" crowd will be disappointed. A healthy Lawrie should have no trouble putting up 25 homers, 20 steals, a .280 avg and good counting stats in the middle of a very good line up.

I see nothing wrong with slotting him in a tier below Longoria right there with Beltre.

[Big Tymer]

Of all of the suggested stats you list, I think the line you offered...27/18...is the top end of his 2012 production. Lots of people are going to be disappointed...

You do realize he has 5 SBs this spring correct? I agree that 27 HR is likely towards the top-end but no way is 18 SBs

[Moonlight J]

I'd ask you to go back to last year and look at the Jays' SB numbers in spring training. They were nuts....not so much in the regular season

[Big Tymer]

OK..... but he had 7 SBs (out of 8 attempts) last year in 43 games + 13 in AAA before that. Not saying he's going to steal 40 but just that 18 SBs in 2012 is hardly his "ceiling" as was implied.

[virgonomic]

You do realize he has 5 SBs this spring correct? I agree that 27 HR is likely towards the top-end but no way is 18 SBs

Paging Big Tymer to the "Overreact to ST 2012" thread...

[DerekNJD]

I'd ask you to go back to last year and look at the Jays' SB numbers in spring training. They were nuts....not so much in the regular season

Not really. They had 1 guy run his ass off but not make the team. He went on to steal 70 at AA. Other than that, fairly pedestrian.

[Ryno84MVP]

Brett Lawrie batting third and Bautista fourth for the opener.

https://twitter.com/#!/RGriffinStar/status/187916280588804097

[The Evil Empire]

Man alot of people have pinned there hopes on this kid. Just keep thinking about Pedro Alvarez and all his hype.

[Ryno84MVP]

Brett Lawrie batting third and Bautista fourth for the opener.

https://twitter.com/#!/RGriffinStar/...16280588804097

Updating a previous item, Brett Lawrie is batting sixth in the Blue Jays' Opening Day lineup.
It was originally reported that he would bat third, in front of Jose Bautista. But that was false information. Lawrie, 22, batted .293/.373/.580 with nine home runs, 25 RBI and seven stolen bases in 43 games last season. He should be a highly valuable fantasy third baseman in 2012.
Source: John Lott on Twitter
Apr 5 - 11:32 AM

[onejayhawk]

Man alot of people have pinned there hopes on this kid. Just keep thinking about Pedro Alvarez and all his hype.

I traded Mario Rivera and Brent Morel to get him. It helped that I was overstaffed for saves, but still.

J

[madducks]

Updating a previous item, Brett Lawrie is batting sixth in the Blue Jays' Opening Day lineup.
It was originally reported that he would bat third, in front of Jose Bautista. But that was false information. Lawrie, 22, batted .293/.373/.580 with nine home runs, 25 RBI and seven stolen bases in 43 games last season. He should be a highly valuable fantasy third baseman in 2012.
Source: John Lott on Twitter
Apr 5 - 11:32 AM

I think he's destined to bat third this year. I'm guessing that it happens early in the year.

[Porcello]

Man alot of people have pinned there hopes on this kid. Just keep thinking about Pedro Alvarez and all his hype.

Lawrie didn't show up to camp fat and doesn't look lost on the field. I hated trading him, but I did get Longoria back so I can't be too upset.