12T mixed, Braun $42 Greinke $22 or Hamels $20?

[dannahann]

$300 Budget, standard 14x9 plus 8 reserves, 7x7 (OPS, Hits, x HR allowed, Losses are extra cats) we keep 5.

I need to select my final TWO keepers from the following options: Braun $42, Greinke $22, Hamels $20, Josh Johnson $19, Axford $10.

My other 3 keepers are Pedroia $27, Bruce $6, and Adam Jones $5.

[joncarlos]

Braun and Hamels for me. And I think that gives you the 5 I would pick.

[chancellor]

Braun and Hamels for me. And I think that gives you the 5 I would pick.

Same for me. Much as I'd like to be a Brewer homer and recommend Braun and Greinke, I'd keep Braun and Hamels.

[Sour Masher]

I'd look closely at keeping Braun, Hamels, and Greinke and tossing Adam Jones back.

[dannahann]

I'd look closely at keeping Braun, Hamels, and Greinke and tossing Adam Jones back.

hmmm I guess I could do that instead? I really hadn't considered it as our rules ONLY allow us to keep 2 of our cheap keeps ($6 or less) and I've always sought to keep 2. I appreciate you thinking beyond what I asked. If I'm going to change things up maybe it's best I list everyone that a case could be made to keep as to get the best advice.

Here are all my options (* = those I plan to keep for certain, ? = bubble guys)

Cheap keeps (must keep one can't keep more than two) Bruce (6)* Adam Jones (5)? J Montero (5)? D Hudson (5)? Moustakas (5)

Costlier keeps (can't keep more than five total which includes the cheap keeps) Hanley (52) / Braun (42)? / Pedrioa (27)* / Beltre (26) / Greinke (22)? / Butler (22) / Hamels (20)? / JJ (19)? / Bell (15) / Axford (10)? / Marcum (8)

[joncarlos]

hmmm I guess I could do that instead? I really hadn't considered it as our rules ONLY allow us to keep 2 of our cheap keeps ($6 or less) and I've always sought to keep 2. I appreciate you thinking beyond what I asked. If I'm going to change things up maybe it's best I list everyone that a case could be made to keep as to get the best advice.

Here are all my options (* = those I plan to keep for certain, ? = bubble guys)

Cheap keeps (must keep one can't keep more than two) Bruce (6)* Adam Jones (5)? J Montero (5)? D Hudson (5)? Moustakas (5)

Costlier keeps (can't keep more than five total which includes the cheap keeps) Hanley (52) / Braun (42)? / Pedrioa (27)* / Beltre (26) / Greinke (22)? / Butler (22) / Hamels (20)? / JJ (19)? / Bell (15) / Axford (10)? / Marcum (8)

I do like Braun/Pedroia/Hamels from the expensive group. Does Montero qualify at C? I would consider him over Jones as well. But I think I do like both more than Grienke.

[goodwilly98]

Definitely Braun and Hamels

[Sour Masher]

My thinking of tossing Jones back to keep one of the pricier guys like Greinke is based on the fact that in a 12 team league with those cats, I just don't know if Jones is a huge value, unless you bank of big improvement for him. The two extra cats for you are hits and OPS. Jone's career OPS is .756 and his career high in hits is 165. And he's not a lock for double digit steals, and he's not a great sources of runs or rbi in that line up. He's a good but not great player in a 12 team league, again, unless you expect a break out, which I'm sure many expect as he is a talented 26 year old entering his prime.

I know I'm in the minority on Jones. Lots of folks like him and would consider him a good value at $6, even with the extra cats and in a 12 team league. Lots of folks see him as a breakout candidate. I look at the K rate and the walk rate and I think it is more likely he continues to be a solid across the board guy, but nothing more.

I also know folks don't like spending big on pitching, but I like Greinke a lot. If you want to go cheaper, I too would consider Montero if he is catcher elg. And depending on how thin 3b is in the auction, I might even consider Beltre at 26 over Jones.

While I recognize that OF isn't quite as deep as some folks think, and there is value in a player of Jones' skill level, even in a 12 team league, I've never had trouble finding OFers of his performance level in shallower leagues (Torii Hunter comes to mind as someone I bet goes cheap that will probably put up similar stats to Jones--how much will a player like Hunter go for in this league?). I'd feel safer tossing him back and trying to land someone with similar stats at about that price than I do rollong the dice at 3b or catcher, or even SP.

But again, I'm biased when it comes to mid-level OFers. I've had great luck getting good to great OFers on the cheap (there always seems to be a cheap Carlos Quentin or Corey Hart or a Melky Cabrera or Alex Gordon during a career on my roster each season), and my pricing is based on my league where mid-level OFers are probably undervalued, and people overpay for SPs and IFers.

[dannahann]

Thanks, that makes sense. Montero is only eligible at Util to begin the season but could/should become C eligible soon enough if current reports bear true. All it will take is 5 starts at C to become eligible and it's being reported that Seattle plans to give him an opportunity. My worry is the opportunity might come in spring training and the plan be scrapped before the games count. On the other hand, Montero is likely looked upon to be the centerpiece of that lineup for a long long time, the M's aren't contenders so why not give him a real long look. No need to pigeon hole him as a DH this early in his career given their not looking to contend for awhile.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, all of that is true, but if earlier reports of his ineptitude behind the plate or true, I wouldn't bet my life that Montero sees 5 games at catcher all year.