Auction Strategies

[Teenwolf]

I think the shadowing concept seems particularly valid to me because of the experts that I play with. Like I say, Kevin Seitzer is in the league, and the guy has a massive wealth of info, doing intense research on pitchfx data, writing for baseball prospectus. How can you not at least notice who he's targeting?

Though at the same time, you really should trust your own judgement, and the research that you've put in over the winter. Especially when it comes to exploiting your league parameters as you see fit.

[Lucky]

I think the shadowing concept seems particularly valid to me because of the experts that I play with. Like I say, Kevin Seitzer is in the league, and the guy has a massive wealth of info, doing intense research on pitchfx data, writing for baseball prospectus. How can you not at least notice who he's targeting?

Though at the same time, you really should trust your own judgement, and the research that you've put in over the winter. Especially when it comes to exploiting your league parameters as you see fit.

I don't know...doesn't "shadowing" seem pretty parasitic? I mean, rather than being an actual strategy, isn't it just leaching off a guy who has put in the work?

No offense intended to anyone who may actually use this.

[Phineas to Ferb]

I don't know...doesn't "shadowing" seem pretty parasitic? I mean, rather than being an actual strategy, isn't it just leaching off a guy who has put in the work?

No offense intended to anyone who may actually use this.

I think using that strategy you're ripe to have the shadowee stick you with players he doesn't want at prices he doesn't want.

[Boone]

Surprised that nobody has mentioned the "my brother-in-law is my farm team" strategy. Not that he knows it, of course.

[AbPow]

In keeper leagues with substantial inflation, I've always subscribed to the "WarGames" strategy ("the only winning move is not to play"). That is, I try to go into each auction with as little money as possible, protecting as much talent/value as I can even if some of my keepers may appear overpriced but really aren't relative to inflation. Go into a draft with $200 to spend and 30% inflation, you're going to come out with $140 worth of talent on average. Go into a draft with $40 to spend, and no matter how much inflation, you'll get close to (or better than) your $40 worth as you're forced to buy sub-$10 players. This won't work in leagues where you'll only allowed to keep 10 or fewer players, but if you're allowed to keep up to, say 15, it's a much more viable strategy.

The best way to try this out is with software like RotoLab, where you plug in all the expected keepers on the other teams to get an idea of inflation/available players, and then it spits your Estimated Team Value. You'll be surprised to see that ETV go up when you add what appear to be full-price or higher-salaried keepers who aren't grossly overpriced.

If you are forced to go into a draft with a lot of money to spend, I've found it's best to spend your money early and quickly on the absolute top players. I'd rather pay $50 for a $40 player (especially a pair of them) than get caught sitting on money and getting into bidding wars where you pay $30 for a $15-18 guy. You never want a lot of money after the top 10 available players or so are off the board.

[Fresno Bob]

I think the shadowing concept seems particularly valid to me because of the experts that I play with. Like I say, Kevin Seitzer is in the league, and the guy has a massive wealth of info, doing intense research on pitchfx data, writing for baseball prospectus. How can you not at least notice who he's targeting?

Though at the same time, you really should trust your own judgement, and the research that you've put in over the winter. Especially when it comes to exploiting your league parameters as you see fit.

I do it as more as a taunting move than anything else, every year I target an owner or two, and make sure I sit to their left (we are a "round the table, pass once and you are out of the bidding" auction).

My core strategy is "stars and scrubs" since I feel that I do more prep than most people in my league, although this year we are bringing The Dane in, and I purposefully put myself into "dollar days" needing 5-7 players, so I know I'll have some keepers/trade bait later in the year. My other core strategy is to "auction surf", ie, read where the auction is going, and pick up on undervalued assets, generally steals, sometimes saves if several owners are "punting saves" ie....

No inflexible strategy is going to survive a competitive auction, as the dynamics are too fluid

[Jefe]

... (we are a "round the table, pass once and you are out of the bidding" auction).

Interesting! Is that pretty common, as opposed to the anything-goes style?

[axman]

If you feel someone is "shadowing" you, bid on virtually ever player. If your being shadowed your probably one of the more prepared guys at the table and you won't get stuck with players because you know when to drop out of the bidding. First time there is a pause after one of your bids and you don't win the player make sure to comment that you have to be more careful bidding up players you don't want, even if you really wanted that guy (be sure to look at that guy after you make this comment to see if you get a reaction). I do hate table talk but if your not a chirper you can really use it to your advantage.

As for keeper leagues, I find your keeper list and talent available is really going to dictate your strategy. Of course lining up your keeper list to fit your potential strategy can be a real help.

[Gregg]

If you feel someone is "shadowing" you, bid on virtually ever player. If your being shadowed your probably one of the more prepared guys at the table and you won't get stuck with players because you know when to drop out of the bidding. First time there is a pause after one of your bids and you don't win the player make sure to comment that you have to be more careful bidding up players you don't want, even if you really wanted that guy (be sure to look at that guy after you make this comment to see if you get a reaction). I do hate table talk but if your not a chirper you can really use it to your advantage.

As for keeper leagues, I find your keeper list and talent available is really going to dictate your strategy. Of course lining up your keeper list to fit your potential strategy can be a real help.

Yep, if you bid every player they cannot shadow...and they cannot tell if you are shadowing.

I do not shadow, but I do price enforce.

[Erik]

Interesting! Is that pretty common, as opposed to the anything-goes style?

We recently had a discussion about that here:

http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showthread.php?160-How-is-Your-Auction-Run

There are plenty of people on this site who do each.

[JW-Baseball]

My strategy, with my keeper leagues, is to build a plan "A" for each open slot that I need to fill in my roster - that plan has a $ amount and a short list of players that I think I can get for that amount. I also try to have a plan "B" in case one of the top $ spots I am hoping to fill doesn't go my way. Plan B is more or less a fallback plan if the beginning of the auction doesn't go the way I had expected. Within my plan A/plan B is some sort of embedded strategy - usually a modified version of stars and scrubs - more like "some stars, some value players, and some end game targets". Not sure if this makes sense, but it's kind of the auction strategy that I've morphed into over the last 5 years or so.

[Judge Jude]

Yes, that's pretty much what I do.
If it's a keeper league where you can keep 10 to 15 players, it's not even that hard to manage.
Still would make sense to me in a redraft auction, but the flexibility has to be a lot greater of course.

[The Dane]

I do it as more as a taunting move than anything else, every year I target an owner or two, and make sure I sit to their left (we are a "round the table, pass once and you are out of the bidding" auction).

My core strategy is "stars and scrubs" since I feel that I do more prep than most people in my league, although this year we are bringing The Dane in, and I purposefully put myself into "dollar days" needing 5-7 players, so I know I'll have some keepers/trade bait later in the year. My other core strategy is to "auction surf", ie, read where the auction is going, and pick up on undervalued assets, generally steals, sometimes saves if several owners are "punting saves" ie....

No inflexible strategy is going to survive a competitive auction, as the dynamics are too fluid

As I already suspected, we approach things in similar ways. We are going to be stepping ALL over each other at this draft.

I don't always go Stars and Scrubs, I kinda just float around, scoping for value... which usually looks a lot like Stars and Scrubs, but isn't always such a conscious effort.

[schlesinj]

My strategy, with my keeper leagues, is to build a plan "A" for each open slot that I need to fill in my roster - that plan has a $ amount and a short list of players that I think I can get for that amount. I also try to have a plan "B" in case one of the top $ spots I am hoping to fill doesn't go my way. Plan B is more or less a fallback plan if the beginning of the auction doesn't go the way I had expected. Within my plan A/plan B is some sort of embedded strategy - usually a modified version of stars and scrubs - more like "some stars, some value players, and some end game targets". Not sure if this makes sense, but it's kind of the auction strategy that I've morphed into over the last 5 years or so.

This is exactly what I do. I call it my colored sheets. I usually have two strategies. The key though is to be able to adjust on the fly, so if you see an opportunity for an undervalued player you can adjust.

[Gregg]

My strategy, with my keeper leagues, is to build a plan "A" for each open slot that I need to fill in my roster - that plan has a $ amount and a short list of players that I think I can get for that amount. I also try to have a plan "B" in case one of the top $ spots I am hoping to fill doesn't go my way. Plan B is more or less a fallback plan if the beginning of the auction doesn't go the way I had expected. Within my plan A/plan B is some sort of embedded strategy - usually a modified version of stars and scrubs - more like "some stars, some value players, and some end game targets". Not sure if this makes sense, but it's kind of the auction strategy that I've morphed into over the last 5 years or so.

I agree with this.

Here is this year's challenge in my 12 team NL only Ultra $260 budget deep keeper league.

Many of the teams will have big money going into the draft. Expiring contracts means that there will be more big names in the auction than years past.

The league will need to buy 11 first basemen and 6 corners did not compute UT yet but can be an option for bargains.

Pujols, Fielder and Howard are in tier 1

Carlos Lee, Overbay, and Garrett Jones in tier 2

Pena, Loney, Branyan in tier 3

Wigginton, Cantu, Wallace in tier 4

I fully expect Pujols to set a new record and top out at $60. Fielder and Howard might depend on if they go before or after Pujols. I expect them to be in the high forties.

I should mention that Hanley Ramirez, Tulo, and Drew are also back in.

Now my plan is to get one of the top three 1B, but would settle for the second tier if Ramirez and Tulo are undervalued by league parameters.

I have to be very flexible. A lot depends on when these guys are brought up. I cannot afford to sit back and wait. I have to spend money early, be happy with my decision and then let the others fight and spend cash.

I am solid in Pitching and OF. These are what I need to call out when it is my turn. 1 call out of 12 doesn't make that much of a difference.