2K12: Melky Cabrera

[revo]

there may not have been a player who surprised more last season than the Melk Man. Not even his mother could have predicted a .305 BA, 201 Hits, 102 R, 87 RBIs, 18 HRs and 20 SBs, and fantasy leaguers were trying to sell high on him all season long, not believing he was the real deal. I'm pretty sure whoever traded him in redraft leagues got badly burned.

Then Kansas City [supposedly] "sold high" on him to San Fran for presumptive ace Jonathan Sanchez.

Looking inside his 2011 stats, he had a high BABIP of .339 and a somewhat high HR/FB rate of 7.0%. His K/BB rate was also a career worst 2.69 to 1, as his BB% fell to a career low 5%. He also was the recipient of 706 PAs, which boosted many of his counting stats. But while Shandler pans his season saying the PA increase was the cause, it's unlikely he's going to lose much playing time at all with his move to SF.

I think his BABIP regresses somewhat, but it's possible the Melk Man's draft value is low because many think last season was a fluke.

.283
87 R
15 HR
78 RBI
16 SB

[joncarlos]

It's not like his value is particularly dependent on HRs, and KC wasn't a HR friendly park, so I don't think the move to KC hurts him. If anything it might help him, since he can drop doubles into the gaps and he's not asked to play CF.

His .332 BABIP was way out of line with his previous years (.288, .288, .271) and there isn't a huge indication that it was a change in approach. 1.44 G/F was more fly-ball heavy than 2009-2010 but not remarkably so. Infield fly balls were high, as they usually are. His LD rate was a higher than 2010 but not as high as 2009 (20.3 last year, 19.0 in 2010, 20.9 in 2009).

His walk rate was DOWN - 8% and 8.3% in 2009-2010 and only 5% last year. So he was clearly learning from Jeff Francouer, but it worked for a year. His K rate was also up slightly (3-year trend of 10.9, 12.6, 13.3) so really, his patience was worse than last year, but maybe he was too passive in previous years.

HR/FB% was 9.8% compared to 3.1% in 2010, but he was at 10.3% in 2009 so again, he's done it before.

So basically, except for a little less patience, 2011 was a carbon copy of 2009 (.274-13-68-66r-10sb) with 35 more points of BABIP and twice as many steals. He was 10-for-12 in 2009 and 20-for-30 in 2011 so the only difference was the Royals let him run more. Will the Giants? He was 10-for-12 in the first half and 10-for-18 in the 2nd half, so maybe that's a bad trend.

Assuming he keeps a little bit of the BABIP and hits about the same number of fly balls I think Revo's numbers look about right. I'd go a little higher on the AVG and a little lower on the steals. Something like .291-16-70-88r-13sb.

[revo]

Is it safe to say the Melk Man is no fluke? Dude's on pace for 250 hits!!