Judge Jude's 2012 keeper list, help sought

[Judge Jude]

It's March, so what the heck.

nice infield options:
C MMontero 15
C CRuiz 6
1B Loney 20?
2B(3B-1B) DMurphy 1
3B Sandoval 23
SS StCastro 10 (could be 5-O, or 10-L2 and then 15-L1 in 2013)

only OF candidate, really, is
Victorino 29

SP have Hanson 15-L1, maybe Harang 1-S1 or Halladay 44-O
RP Street 20
RP Betancourt 10
RP DHernandez 1

........

leaning toward (can keep up to 11)

C MMontero 15
C CRuiz 6
2B(3B-1B) DMurphy 1
3B Sandoval 23
SS StCastro 10
OF Victorino 29

SP Hanson 15
SP Harang 1
RP Street 20
RP Betancourt 10
RP DHernandez 1

that's 11 for 131, about half my spending done and about half my players to go. would walk in needing to spend big on SPs and OFs. If I don't keep Halladay (Lincecum went for 38 last year and CLee only 35), then it's Halladay, Kershaw, Lincecum (if tossed back), Cain and Gallardo (if tossed back at 28). No other elites.

owner tendency on pitching spending suggests I could get even Kershaw for less than 44, so pretty set on tossing beloved Halladay back. but I'd need to spend on a bigtime SP, and just hope nothing crazy happens...

[Hornsby]

Obviously, you know your leaguemates, but I don't think that I'd keep Street at 20...he's not premier anymore, and you could get him back for less. I'd also be leery about Hanson...troubles last year lead to him supposedly changing his throwing motion, and that's never a good thing. I'd consider extending Castro out to 15...it's still a good bargain, and his growth curve is very good.

[Judge Jude]

Thanks.
re Castro - it's either 10 in 2012 and 15 in 2013, or 5 in 2012 and out.
unorthodox, admittedly.

If Hanson has a good spring, I don't worry.
Street lands in SD, and it's a high-price league for closers. He'd go for more. Was a 4x4 league 1984-2003, and still spends that way....

[chancellor]

I'd bump Castro to 10/15. The Panda is fat, and I think you'll not be happy with the 23 on him, but I don't see a better option for you. I'd toss Halladay back.

[Porcello]

Definitely multi years for Starlin. I have the same concerns about Hanson too, but if he looks good in March I think you'll find a buyer. I'd look to sell him. And, yes, send Roy back. Worst case you re-buy him for the same cost.

[schlesinj]

I agree with your keepers and extensions. Castro at $15 is close, but I can see keeping him at $10 too.

[Judge Jude]

The norm is that Castro would be 5, 10, or 15 in each year.

But by our rules, it's 5 in 2012 and out, OR 10 in 2012 and an option at 15 in 2013......

UPDATE: May be able to get Prado 20 for CRuiz 6.
Both in final years of contracts.
HQ projects $22 for Prado (2nd-half 2011 dismissed due to staph infection), and $8 for Ruiz.
So small profits on both, but I'd add 14 units without having to handle any inflation (we have more than a dozen $5 former prospect hitters, which adds a bit to inflation).
I also own the Rockies' farmhand C WRosario, who could be up before midseason, which would leave me looking to move a catcher in a hurry - not always easy to do.
Prado qualifies at 3B and OF, which could come in very handy given my current keeper list....

[Judge Jude]

did add Prado for Ruiz.
looking at freeze 11 for 145 (no Halladay), then go 35-40 for an SP and 30+ for stud OF early, then sit back and watch the bloodbath re our lousy FA pool.....

[scottw]

leaning toward (can keep up to 11)

C MMontero 15*******I just hate paying this much for a catcher
PRADO*****steady
2B(3B-1B) DMurphy 1********if he is healthy!!!We can hope.
3B Sandoval 23********Why do I mistrust this guy? Still, $23 is pretty safe
SS StCastro 10**********I think I'd go to $15 extension and still be safe
OF Victorino 29*********He just doesn't run much anymore and his other skills are spotty. You know your league--will he go cheaper?
SP Hanson 15***********always a worry, but the price is right
SP Harang 1******at worst, a waste of a roster spot, but he should make a buck for you.
RP Street 20********there are only so many closers, so $20 is an investment, I guess.
RP Betancourt 10******advanced age, but upside at $10
RP DHernandez 1**********bargain

[Judge Jude]

11 days til freeze date
still looking at (can keep up to 11)

C MMontero 15
2B(3B-1B) DMurphy 1
3B Sandoval 23
SS StCastro 10
OF Victorino 29
OF(3B) Prado 20

SP Hanson 15
SP Harang 1
RP Street 20
RP Betancourt 10
RP DHernandez 1

11 for 145
Hanson and Harang must have good finishes to earn those spots.

standard NL 12-team 5x5, except that all farmhands (and we draft 36 per year, clock doesn't start til they are recalled) are 5 units, and a stud farmhand winds up owned at 5-5-10-15. That boosts inflation, so I do freezing accordingly. Last year was a bloodbath, and I'm trying to avoid some of that with some seemingly meh plays that I think will look nice post-auction time.
Even Loney at 20 may not look like a bad pick at that point

[Judge Jude]

freeze date on Wednesday

now considering no SP keeps - dumping Halladay 44-O, Hanson 15-O, Harang 1-S1

I'm keeping 3 RPs and 6 or 7 hitters.

I like the SP crop out there, and that's where I'd spend much of my money (in addition to on a stud OF)

[Gregg]

Why wouldn't you keep a one dollar Harang? We all need a couple of those.

[Judge Jude]

Well, I got 14 W out of Harang last year, but past performance is no guarantee of future results.

He's also a Ratio killer, and there's an opportunity cost of just 9 pitching slots. Decent chance I'd look late in the auction and see that I could have gotten somebody better instead (last year I also got Wolf and Leake and DHernandez for 1, too, in the same auction).

Dodger Stadium not the pitcher's haven it once was/seemed to be, either.

[Gregg]

freeze date on Wednesday

I'm keeping 3 RPs and 6 or 7 hitters.

I think keeping a $20 Loney is a bad bad move.

[Judge Jude]

Loney went for 17 in the uninflated Tout Wars and LABR NL-only auctions (the latter was today).
With 20 pct inflation, he'd be ok to keep at 20.4 units, and he's at 20 for me.

I doubt I'll keep him, but I cannot think of a more insignificant move than whether I keep Loney or not. He'll go for 16 to 23, depending on when he's nominated and the vibe in the room. Not exactly a game-changer.