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**BigJonEmpire** · 03-01-2012, 01:22 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value

AL- Henderson Alvarez

NL-Chris Heisey

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners

AL- Matt Moore

NL- Stephen Strasburg

Closer most likely to lose his job

AL- Jose Valverde

NL- Rafael Betancourt (not because he lacks skills but because the Rockies are already grooming his replacement).

Best value pick at closer

AL- Joakim Soria

NL- Ryan Madson

Rookie of the Year

AL- Yu Darvish

NL- Nolan Arenado

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season

AL - Adam Dunn's lack of power

NL- Allen Craig

2012 Fantasy MVP

AL- Josh Hamilton

NL- Matt Kemp

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why?

Spend it but within reason. I see Yu Darvish as a potential front line pitcher, a top ten type of guy. I see his downside as still slightly better than league average. In an AL-only I'd be willing to bid into the low to mid 20's.

Darvish's situation is nothing like Dice-K's. Matsuzaka came to the Red Sox and rather than be happy with what they had, they tried to change him into their version of what he should be. They made him change his workout routines, reduced his use of his change-up, and then didn't support him publicly when he failed to be an ace. In addition, Darvish isn't like a lot of japanese pitchers. He doesn't rely on hesitations and other forms of deception.

I also have a ton of faith in the scouting, evaluation and teaching skills in the Rangers organization. They put a lot of work into Darvish and being certain he was the pitcher they wanted to spend 100 million dollars to acquire. This might be the largest factor in my faith that Darvish will perform as expected.

What is your strategy for saves?

I usually refuse to spend top dollar on closers. If a closer or closers don't go into my acceptable range I will just dump saves during the draft or auction. I used to practice buying next year's closers but this strategy has become so popular that it is sometimes cheaper to just pay for this year's saves.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year?

I have a few I'm willing to bet on - Jason Heyward and Brain Matusz are two.

Heyward was hit hard by injuries. He has worked hard this winter. He has radically changed his diet and workout habits for the better. He has tremendous natural talent as well as advanced skills with the bat. With health, those talents and skills should be on display in 2012.

Matusz was, not so long ago, considered one of the better pitching prospects in the game. He suffered a couple of injuries that contributed to his loss of velocity. He re-gained most of his fastball towards the end of the season but the control was still a bit behind. I think he'll be fine. The Orioles believe the same thing if that matters to you.

Fill in the blanks in 50 words or less: Everyone is missing out on ______ (secretly valuable fantasy player) because _______ (esoteric expert reason).

Everyone is missing out on Chris Heisey because of the mistaken belief that Dusty Baker would prefer to play the mediocre Ryan Ludwick instead. Dusty does believe in easing youngsters into starting roles, but he has no problem putting more experienced players on his bench. Ludwick was acquired as depth and protection, not as a better option than Heisey.

Heisey has 20/20 potential this season and even 30/30 if everything breaks right for him. Yet he is being drafted in the very late rounds (if at all). This is the year for the Reds and Chris Heisey.

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why?

The candidates have to be Neftali Feliz, Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, and Aaron Crow.

I actually like them all to some degree but the one I am most willing to bet on would be Neftali Feliz. Feliz has the highest ceiling, the most success as a starter in the minors, and the best pitching coaches. I'd take Daniel Bard second, Chris Sale a close third, and Crow brings up the rear.

**Lucky** · 03-01-2012, 01:30 PM

Good poll, I'm working on my answers.

**joncarlos** · 03-01-2012, 02:40 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value Ryan Doumit (top 10 catcher), Matt Thorton (top 10 closer), Jason Bay (top 30 OF?), Derek Holland (top 20 starter)

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners Mike Trout, Buster Posey, Yoenis Cespedes

Closer most likely to lose his job Chris Perez/Matt Capps

Best value pick at closer Matt Thornton/Brandon League

Rookie of the Year Yu Darvish / Trevor Bauer (it's possible the top 5 fantasy rookies will all be the in the AL)

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season Hanley Ramirez forgetting how to hit, Doug Fister as Cy Young contender

2012 Fantasy MVP Jose Reyes/Carlos Santana

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why?

I believe in his velocity, his American-sized frame and Kinsler/Beltre/Andrus behind him. Even though I worry that he won't do well in the Texas heat, I think all the other ingredients are there for his success. Also, 8.8 K/9, 8.4 H/9 and 3.5 BB/9 for Dice-K in his rookie year was actually pretty darn good.

What is your strategy for saves? I actually think the elite guys are a little UNDERvalued these days (Rivera/Papelbon) but if I can't get one of those I'll fall back to speculation. I also think there's some inefficiency to be exploited on guys who are supposed to lose their jobs but never do (see my Thornton picks above).

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year?

I'm guessing Mike Minor is too good to qualify here. I'll go with Nolan Reimold, who might be the best hitter among O's outfielders this year. I want to go with Pedro Alvarez but I'm not sure I believe it.

Fill in the blanks in 50 words or less: Everyone is missing out on ______ (secretly valuable fantasy player) because _______ (esoteric expert reason).

Chien-Ming Wang, because they don't think his arm can stay attached. I think it will and I think he's in a good place to succeed.

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why?

Chris Sale. I love his arsenal and he is a really, really good pitcher. I think he'll step right into the rotation while Feliz will struggle for a while. I am not buying Bard or Crow at all.

**Ryno84MVP** · 03-01-2012, 02:48 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value

NL � Carlos Zambrano
AL � Justin Smoak

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners

NL � Ryan Braun
AL � Derek Jeter

Closer most likely to lose his job

NL � Javy Guerra
AL � Matt Thornton

Best value pick at closer

NL � Carlos Marmol
AL � Jim Johnson

Rookie of the Year

NL � Bryce Harper
AL � Jesus Montero

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season

NL � Ryan Vogelsong
AL � Asdrubal Cabrera

2012 Fantasy MVP

NL � Matt Kemp
AL � Jacoby Ellsbury

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why?

If he were available in my league, I know that I would not get him. It�s not that I don�t think he will be good, but the hype machine has pushed his salary up so much that I couldn�t justify the risk/reward.

What is your strategy for saves?

Grab at least one second tier closer in stay competitive in the category (all saves are created equal, so paying the premium price for a tier one closer usually isn�t worth it) and then couple that with a closer-in-waiting type.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year?

Travis Snider � he is only 24 years old and already has parts of four seasons in the big leagues under his belt (but has never received an extended opportunity to showcase his talents). He is this year�s Alex Gordon�

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why?

Neftali Feliz because he has a track record of success as a starter in the minors

**Hammer** · 03-01-2012, 02:50 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value- David Freese

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners- Justin Verlander

Closer most likely to lose his job- Frank Francisco

Best value pick at closer- Rafael Betancourt

Rookie of the Year- Julio Teheran

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season- Asdrubal Cabrera

2012 Fantasy MVP

What is your strategy for saves? Find em late or cheap or grab set up guys.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year? Pedro Alvarez

**SlideRule** · 03-01-2012, 02:51 PM

I'm an AL-only guy, so...

Late round player who will provide early rounds value - Kendrys Morales, Howie Kendrick

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners - BJ Upton, Yoenis Cespedes

Closer most likely to lose his job - Andrew Bailey, due to injury, or Brandon League, due to trade.

Best value pick at closer - Kyle Farnsworth, Grant Balfour

Rookie of the Year - Darvish. But I won't be surprised if it's Moore.

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season - Curtis Granderson

2012 Fantasy MVP - I'll go with Bautista here, Cabrera a close 2nd.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year? - Does Adam Jones count? If not, I'll say Tyler Flowers, or Travis Snider.

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why? Feliz - he has shown he has the chops and TEX has a history of the coaches being able to do the conversion with good success.

**willthethrill** · 03-01-2012, 04:27 PM

NL Version:

Late round player who will provide early rounds value
Chris Heisey
Nate Schierholtz
Lucas Duda

I’m budgeting $10 for these 3 guys and they’ll earn me +$25, although the Duda-hype might drive his price up by the time I draft.

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners
Jayson Werth-Not marquee, but those banking on a rebound will get more of the same.
Ryan Zimmerman-I just am not willing to pay for the break-out that may never come, whether it be for health reasons or the fact that I don’t see him as elite.

Closer most likely to lose his job
Javy Guerra is the obvious pick, but I’ll go with Brian Wilson. I think that he’ll be ineffective and an injury will be revealed.

Best value pick at closer
Rafeal Betancourt-Top 5 closer for half the price.

Rookie of the Year
Tyler Pastornicky-Good defense, acceptable offense and little competition

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season
Ryan Vogelsong-He was an all-star last year and probably helped a lot of teams win money, but I’m not buying it this year.

2012 Fantasy MVP
Hanley Ramirez-He’ll take to the move to 3rd base and put up stellar numbers.

What is your strategy for saves?
I’m not afraid to pay for saves if they can be had at a discount. My league typically does not pay for saves, so I usually end up with at least one of the top-3 closers.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year?
Dexter Fowler-$20 player this year!

Fill in the blanks in 50 words or less: Everyone is missing out on ______ (secretly valuable fantasy player) because _______ (esoteric expert reason).
Jimmy Paredes (3b/HOU) because he’ll provide 20+ stolen bases for a buck or two.

**Erik** · 03-01-2012, 04:28 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value -- Paul Goldschmitt

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners -- Jose Reyes. I can totally see him slacking now that he got paid.

Closer most likely to lose his job -- Chris Perez

Best value pick at closer -- Kyle Farnsworth

Rookie of the Year -- Matt Moore (AL), Jordan Lyles (NL)

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season -- Asdrubral Cabrera

2012 Fantasy MVP -- Matt Kemp

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why? -- Since there is no reliable prediction model, I do not spend large amounts on Japanese pitchers in their first MLB year. It will take a lot of money to land Darvish, and I will let someone else take that risk.

What is your strategy for saves? -- Don't overpay for them, so many closing jobs change hands each year.

**Lucky** · 03-01-2012, 05:10 PM

A couple of people have mentioned Snider favorably. He was one of the (several) players who destroyed me last year. But, being a glutton for punishment, I'm looking for a reason to roster him again. Why is it that we think he will not be a land mine this year?

**DJBeasties** · 03-01-2012, 05:19 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value -- Dexter Fowler

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners -- Prince Fielder

Closer most likely to lose his job -- Chris Perez, Jim Johnson, Javy Guerra

Best value pick at closer -- Huston Street

Rookie of the Year

AL -- Matt Moore
NL -- Randall Delgado

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season -- Melky Cabrera

2012 Fantasy MVP -- Carlos Gonzalez

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why? -- I don't care about this in the least. Spend your money however you want and when the results are determined then talk to me.

What is your strategy for saves? -- Buy one good closer with good command and then mine for saves later.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year? -- Travis Snider. He's undisiplined but with a tick in the right direction, his power profile is great and will play well on the Blue Jays who like to swing for extra base hits. We've seen it in glimpses. I think it's there...

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why? Chris Sale for the great K/9, BB/9 and pitch repitoire

**chancellor** · 03-01-2012, 05:31 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value

NL � AJ Burnett. Pitt and the NL should be perfect for him.
AL � Ryan Doumit - IMO, based on his own recent comments, Morneau still isn't right and may never be.

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners

NL � Starlin Castro - I'm seeing him taken top-30 in a lot of Mocks.
Pablo Sandoval - OK, maybe he's not Marquee, but there's a lot more of Pablo than last year, and that doesn't bode well.
AL � Joe Mauer. Back problems suck. Players with back problems make your team suck.
Michael Pineda. Safeco to Yankee Stadium is going to slam his ratios, IMO.

Closer most likely to lose his job

NL � JJ Putz. Not because he's bad, but I'm figuring he'll get hurt again.
AL � Chris Perez. I'm still mystified how he still has the closer job.

Best value pick at closer

NL � Carlos Marmol
AL � Brandon League. He sure seems to be going awfully late to me.

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season

NL � Ryan Vogelsong
AL � Jacoby Ellsbury

2012 Fantasy MVP

NL � Matt Kemp
AL � Miguel Cabrera

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why?

I'd spend money on him, but likely not what it'll take. He's unlike any other Japanese import in terms of size and age.

What is your strategy for saves?

Shop for value. I'm not averse to grabbing a premier closer if most are avoiding them. Usually, I end up with a closer with perceived issues.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year?

Nolan Reimold.

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why?

Chris Sale. He has the stuff, and he's a lefty on a righty dominated staff (I think Danks is the only other starting LHP), so he'll likely be allowed to work through some kinks.

**Big Tymer** · 03-01-2012, 10:26 PM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value: Jason Heyward (NL) and Erick Aybar (AL)

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners: Shane Victorino (NL) and Justin Verlander (AL)

Closer most likely to lose his job: Javy Guerra (NL) and Chris Perez (AL)

Best value pick at closer: Frank Francisco (NL) and Brandon League (AL)

Rookie of the Year: Julio Teheran (NL) and Matt Moore (AL)

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season: Ryan Roberts (NL) and Jacoby Ellsbury (AL)

2012 Fantasy MVP: Ryan Braun (NL) and Albert Pujols (AL)

Convince us that we should spend money (or not) on Yu Darvish. Are we just supposed to ignore that no system for translating performance from Japan to MLB seems to get it right? Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the most important piece of evidence we have or not, and why? People cannot be stereotyped by those who come before them. Each player needs to be judged on his own merit with no blanket assumptions and while Daisuke was best known for a gyro ball Darvish has been known to just dominate and its not like the AL West is the same as the AL East.

What is your strategy for saves? Saves are always available in-season whether off the wire or via trade so if the value isn't there at auction just go another direction. That said, when possible keep cheap saves and steals.

Every expert is still holding out hope for some struggling (or apparently failed) prospect. Who is your guy and why is this his year? Bryan LaHair (NL) and Ian Stewart (NL again)

Which reliever turning starter would you draft first and why? Neftali Feliz. Even if Sale pitches well it will be on a crappy team and just think Feliz's ceiling is the highest.

**idriveabucket** · 03-02-2012, 02:44 AM

Late round player who will provide early rounds value: Jose Altuve, 2B

Marquee player who will disappoint his owners: Troy Tulowitzki (health)

Closer most likely to lose his job: There might be 3-5 closers who *aren't* a big risk for losing their job.

Best value pick at closer: Mark Melancon

The biggest fluke of the 2011 season: Michael Morse

2012 Fantasy MVP: Braun, Kemp, or Pujols.

Yu Darvish would be a lot more sexy in a ballpark that wasn't so offense-heavy. Still, I think he provides the best chance at a fantasy ace in the mid rounds (or early double digits for those mixed league auctioneers). Somebody will either be greatly rewarded or disappointed by him this year. Based on how much he's going to cost--i don't see a whole lot of room for something in the middle.

I don't pay for saves. Way too much volatility and I do a good job staying active on the waiver wire (if a closer slips way down in drafts, my hand may be forced into paying for saves). In auctions I price force if I believe a closer is going way below market value.

Failed prospect who can turn the corner? I don't know if he qualifies as a prospect anymore, but I really like Chris Davis' minor league numbers to translate this year. He's in another excellent hitter's park and occupies a very shallow position this year (3B).

I think there's a hidden gem in that "reliever turned starter" group this year -- I'll be going after every single one of them.

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