My first "expert" league

[Lucky]

I've been invited to participate in my first "expert" league, due primarily to another guy being unavailable. It's no LABR or Tout Wars, but all the guys are associated with fantasy baseball sites, blogs or something. It's called "Blog Wars", and I'll be representing Advanced Fantasy Baseball, the site BigJonEmpire runs and for which I wrote some articles last year.

I have felt as though I was in an expert league before, playing against guys like Jason, Byron, Brad, RC, Hoyos, Paul, etc. Obviously, I don't consider myself an expert, but I need to do everything I can to represent the site well, and try to keep from finishing last.

The format is a 15-team mixed league snake draft. There is a 23-man active roster (including two catchers) four reserve spots, and two DL spots. I haven't played in a draft league in 20 years or thereabouts, so I'm a little apprehensive. I know that a lot of you guys either play in this type of league, or at least are very knowledgeable about them, so I'd appreciate some help.

I've been looking some at ADP, and the thing that strikes me is that people seem to be taking pitching too early. What about emphasizing hitting a little more, and not picking up a pitcher until the fifth or sixth round?

Is position scarcity a big deal, or do I need to take the best value as long as I can?

It seems as though it would be extremely bad to have an early round starting pitcher flame out on you, so I'm thinking of concentrating on some second tier guys who would be very dependable.

I got burned so bad last year with injuries and risk/reward guys that I want avoid as much risk this year as possible.

Help?

[DJBeasties]

I've been invited to participate in my first "expert" league, due primarily to another guy being unavailable. It's no LABR or Tout Wars, but all the guys are associated with fantasy baseball sites, blogs or something. It's called "Blog Wars", and I'll be representing Advanced Fantasy Baseball, the site BigJonEmpire runs and for which I wrote some articles last year.

I have felt as though I was in an expert league before, playing against guys like Jason, Byron, Brad, RC, Hoyos, Paul, etc. Obviously, I don't consider myself an expert, but I need to do everything I can to represent the site well, and try to keep from finishing last.

The format is a 15-team mixed league snake draft. There is a 23-man active roster (including two catchers) four reserve spots, and two DL spots. I haven't played in a draft league in 20 years or thereabouts, so I'm a little apprehensive. I know that a lot of you guys either play in this type of league, or at least are very knowledgeable about them, so I'd appreciate some help.

I've been looking some at ADP, and the thing that strikes me is that people seem to be taking pitching too early. What about emphasizing hitting a little more, and not picking up a pitcher until the fifth or sixth round?

Is position scarcity a big deal, or do I need to take the best value as long as I can?

It seems as though it would be extremely bad to have an early round starting pitcher flame out on you, so I'm thinking of concentrating on some second tier guys who would be very dependable.

I got burned so bad last year with injuries and risk/reward guys that I want avoid as much risk this year as possible.

Help?

Sure! Good for you. Big Jon's site is great and FWIW, I read your draft prep article today. Really pro-level stuff in my opinion. I think you should look at the LABR Mixed straight draft results and see what it looks like to you. I am a guy who wait, wait, waits on pitching usually unless I go with some form of the anchor plan where I might draft one highly-reliable stud SP early and then LIMA the rest.

Good luck, but I bet you'll be fine.

[Fresno Bob]

bring some "enhanced" brownies to the draft, one thing I've learned, none of the roto experts I've met can resist free food....you'll crush them!

You are going to be fine, follow your own draft prep advice.....

The one big difference between auction and draft are "runs", where all of a sudden all the third basemen go while you are sitting there watching powerless. Jump in one of the mocks here and you'll see it, just be ready. Creating "Tiers" by position becomes even more important, as is understanding the other players roster slots available, in draft vs auction.

[chancellor]

IMO, you get some of the best SP advice here and on Paul Sporer's blog. It'll allow you to draft value later. I agree with your concept of getting at least four strong hitters first before broaching SPs, and I'd even consider waiting until the sixth depending on who's available.

[Lucky]

bring some "enhanced" brownies to the draft, one thing I've learned, none of the roto experts I've met can resist free food....you'll crush them!

You are going to be fine, follow your own draft prep advice.....

The one big difference between auction and draft are "runs", where all of a sudden all the third basemen go while you are sitting there watching powerless. Jump in one of the mocks here and you'll see it, just be ready. Creating "Tiers" by position becomes even more important, as is understanding the other players roster slots available, in draft vs auction.

So what do you do if you find yourself in the middle of one of those runs? My instinct would be to go contrarian and scarf up a player with a value greater than the next available 3B.

[onejayhawk]

For a good ADP chart and useful tiering of 15 team league, try http://www.fantasygameday.net/2012-fantasy-baseball-adp You have to jump through some hoops, but it is an excellent resource for game planning a draft.

J

[Judge Jude]

I'll give you the same advice you gave me two years ago when I landed in the HQ "Masters League" in spite of never having participated in a single draft in my life (just play one league, and it's auction).

I figured I'd be so outflanked that I might as well do something goofy like only pick NL players (my league) and see if I can avoid last.

You suggested that I had more of a shot than I realized, so I played it straight. To my surprise, I got as high as 2nd around June or so before settling into middle-of-the-pack status by season's end. But it was fun.

So you are underestimating yourself as much as I did.

The one thing I was most amazed at was how much of a different game owners really were playing depending on draft slot. I think I was around 5 or something out of 15, so there were some "run" issues. But that was extreme on the far ends, like 1-30 or 15-16, and of lesser note picking right in the middle.

I imagine you'd have to adjust your concerns based on that. Then again, I've only been in one draft, so what do I know?

[chancellor]

So what do you do if you find yourself in the middle of one of those runs? My instinct would be to go contrarian and scarf up a player with a value greater than the next available 3B.

I think your instinct is good. I would do some contingency planning at key "run" positions (3B and closer come to mind for me) - who are bailout candidates at 3B who will deliver some stats, for example. Are you willing to punt saves, or depend on your skills to pick up closers with FAAB?

[Lucky]

Thanks, guys, for the advice and the kind words. I really appreciate DJBeasties' comment on my draft prep article, and pleased to learn that someone actually read it a year later.

Excellent point about the bailout candidates. I think that may be critically important. As for closers, I've been pretty fortunate over the years in picking up guys who wind up getting saves. I'd probably take one or two in my reserve draft, and monitor the waiver wire. The only thing I really don't like about the league setup is that they use waiver claims, not FAAB. I like my chances with FAAB, because after the draft the league would work just like my mixed auction league. I'll have to spend some time figuring out some waiver strategies. I'll probably wind up on the bottom of the list all year, as I imagine I'll be picking up quite a few guys looking for something to click.

[Todd Zola]

With respect to pitching, I would map out how you want your pitching to look in order to compete, keeping the following in mind:

1. It is a misnomer to feel you can wait on pitching because pitching is better and deeper. The problem with that is ALL PITCHING IS BETTER. ERA's and WHIP's from top to bottom are better and value is all relative. The 30th best pitcher is still the 30th best pitcher. His stats on the back of his baseball card may look better that the stats of the 30th best pitcher a few years ago, but he still impacts your team the same.

2. People like Paul S are helping to spread the word, and it is getting harder and harder to find James Shields in the 15th round. The reason waiting for pitching was not to get cheap pitching, but to get GOOD PITCHING ON THE CHEAP. There is less and less good pitching (relatively speaking) available on the cheap, especially in a draft when all it takes is one or two others to have read Paul's manifesto or something similar, and understand how to find hidden gems. They come out from hiding earlier and earlier every year.

3. Draft the PITCHER, not the ROUND. As suggested,map out what you think your staff looks like to be competitive. if you are more comfortable, use actual pitchers. I want Hamels first, Bumgarner next, then Scherzer or whatever. Do it top to bottom. Then go and make a tier around each name. Instead of Hamels, say I want someone from Hamels/Weaver/Sabathia/Greinke first. Next I want someone from Lester/Bumgarner/Cain etc. Again doing it for the whole staff. Then do your best to time your picks to get one from each group as that group is being drafted. It takes discipline, especially if they go before or after you "expect". but keep in mind these are not arbitrary choices. These choices are all part of the top to bottom staff you think it will take to win. A draft is different than an auction in that every round the players are chosen in approximate descending value and you have to take one in every round. In an auction, maybe you want 5 guys worth about $8 -- you can do that in an auction, in a draft the dynamics are such that you can't.

For kicks, I would then map out 2 different plans, one taking a guy in an EARLIER tier than your first pitcher and one taking your first pitcher in a LATER tier and see how it looks. Maybe come up with a target ERA and WHIP and work it so all three combos come out to that target. It is the target that is important -- how you get there can vary.

[The Feral Slasher]

2. People like Paul S are helping to spread the word, and it is getting harder and harder to find James Shields in the 15th round. The reason waiting for pitching was not to get cheap pitching, but to get GOOD PITCHING ON THE CHEAP. There is less and less good pitching (relatively speaking) available on the cheap, especially in a draft when all it takes is one or two others to have read Paul's manifesto or something similar, and understand how to find hidden gems. They come out from hiding earlier and earlier every year.

So where could one find Paul's manifesto ?

[Lucky]

So where could one find Paul's manifesto ?

I've been looking, and I think it is going to be a few more days before he gets it finished. Then just google Paul Sporer 2012 pitching guide, and it should take you there.

[Fresno Bob]

So what do you do if you find yourself in the middle of one of those runs? My instinct would be to go contrarian and scarf up a player with a value greater than the next available 3B.

This is where your tiers come into play, last tier 1 or tier 2 guy available, take him.

[joncarlos]

With respect to pitching, I would map out how you want your pitching to look in order to compete, keeping the following in mind:

2. People like Paul S are helping to spread the word, and it is getting harder and harder to find James Shields in the 15th round. The reason waiting for pitching was not to get cheap pitching, but to get GOOD PITCHING ON THE CHEAP. There is less and less good pitching (relatively speaking) available on the cheap, especially in a draft when all it takes is one or two others to have read Paul's manifesto or something similar, and understand how to find hidden gems. They come out from hiding earlier and earlier every year.

This is especially true from what I've seen in expert leagues. Do NOT expect the sleeper pitchers to last. It's almost like you need to focus on a couple of categories - do I want an ERA/WHIP team without a ton of Ks and wins? Do I want to spend a lot of high picks and add saves to that mix as well? Or am I comfortable being in the middle of the pack in ERA/WHIP if it gets more wins/Ks, and allows me to pick more volatile closers later in the draft? Trying to compete in all 5 pitching categories can be really tough and might get you stuck in no-mans land.

[onejayhawk]

If I can borrow from Todd, pay attention to who the others still need to draft. It will not matter much at first, but later you can spot runs developing, such as when several teams need to fill the OF4, MI or SP3 slots. Be the initiator of a run, not the concludor.

J