2K12: Mark Trumbo, 1B (3B?), LAA

[cavebird]

If he hits and improves his BB% it'll be tough to pull him from the lineup since there are not any in-house alternatives. It will also increase his trade value as teams that would trade form him won't be trading for him to play 3B. He's got to play and show he can hit though and playing him at 3B is the only way to do that right now.

They have a viable in-house alternative at 3B who was the starter there last year in Callaspo. With Scioscia managing, I find it hard to believe they'll keep trotting him out at 3B if he clearly can't field the position. Maybe he'll get some time in left (although that is hard with four OF already fighting for time) and the occasional 1B/DH start, but it could get a bit tricky. The Angels look like a team that has just been thrown together without any thought of who is going to play where and how often.

[Porcello]

They have a viable in-house alternative at 3B who was the starter there last year in Callaspo. With Scioscia managing, I find it hard to believe they'll keep trotting him out at 3B if he clearly can't field the position. Maybe he'll get some time in left (although that is hard with four OF already fighting for time) and the occasional 1B/DH start, but it could get a bit tricky. The Angels look like a team that has just been thrown together without any thought of who is going to play where and how often.

If Trumbo hits like he did last year then they should slide Callaspo back in there sometime this summer because the difference in their offense is negated by Trumbo's defense. If Trumbo hits a little better and buys a walk every now and again then I think the difference is negligible in the short term and could offer them a better return in the long term. For a team that should be in the playoff hunt regardless I think it's a worthwhile risk. I mean, I don't see the Halos still trotting Trumbo out at 3B in September and October, but that's a long ways away. Even if he isn't dealt he may have a role at another position by then due to injury, ineffectiveness, or someone else was traded...or he could just be the primary backup at 1B, DH, and corner OF and first bat off the bench late in playoff games. If he plays well and another team develops a need at 1B or LF though, a very nice return may come their way. That can only happen if Trumbo gets AB's now though.

That said, this is absolutely why I wanted no part of this situation and why I avoided it in March. Both Morales and Trumbo could be huge values this year, but I'd rather let someone else pay to find out and I'll take my gambles elsewhere.

[onejayhawk]

I dont see the Angels being in the Division hunt. Their pitching is decent, in terms of contenders but the defense, including Trumbo, is a sap on that. Even with the huge addition of Pujols, the offense is not enough to carry them. The Wild Card is not much more realistic. In that case you are essentially asking them to finish second in the East. That is also a tall order. This is assuming that a team like the Royals do not suddenly find their stride.

J

[Porcello]

I dont see the Angels being in the Division hunt. Their pitching is decent, in terms of contenders but the defense, including Trumbo, is a sap on that. Even with the huge addition of Pujols, the offense is not enough to carry them. The Wild Card is not much more realistic. In that case you are essentially asking them to finish second in the East. That is also a tall order. This is assuming that a team like the Royals do not suddenly find their stride.

J

They may have a top 5 rotation, a solid bullpen, and added an anchor in the middle of an average (but not bad) lineup.

I'm assuming Texas and Detroit will be dancing unless something really bad happens. I think Tampa will too. So the Halos have to beat all but one of New York, Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, and KC.

New York's rotation is still weak. Boston's is too and their bullpen is a mess. Toronto and KC don't have the starting pitching (yet) and Cleveland's offense may be one of the worst in the league. I think looking at this right now and saying LA is worse than any of those teams except for maybe New York would be a mistake.

The games need to be played, there will be injuries, breakouts, slumps, unexplainable play both good and bad but that's why adjustments are needed throughout the season. Still, saying they won't be in the hunt just doesn't add up to me.

[cavebird]

I dont see the Angels being in the Division hunt. Their pitching is decent, in terms of contenders but the defense, including Trumbo, is a sap on that. Even with the huge addition of Pujols, the offense is not enough to carry them. The Wild Card is not much more realistic. In that case you are essentially asking them to finish second in the East. That is also a tall order. This is assuming that a team like the Royals do not suddenly find their stride.

J

This doesn't make any sense to me. The Angels were in the division hunt until the final week of the season last year. The Rangers made a lateral move to slight upgrade by replacing Wilson with Darvish, and might get a little better with the other minor moves like adding Nathan and moving Feliz to the rotation, playing Napoli more, and not wasting time having Borbon prove he is not a major league hitter. The Angels bring back their entire team and add Pujols, Wilson, and Morales. They are co-favorites in the west to me. Saying their pitching is decent for a contender is a vast understatement. Name another AL contender, except perhaps Tampa, who has as good a top four in the rotation as Weaver, Haren, Wilson, and Santana? The lineup is pretty good, too, with Aybar solid at leadoff, Kendrick a good 2nd hole hitter, and the Pujols and Morales. Hunter is a far cry from what he was, but as a fifth hitter, he isn't horrible. Bourjus is good, too. Yes, they would do better to just release Abreu and replace Wells with Trout, but the offense is still fine. I don't see the defensive problem except for Trumbo, either. Pujols is good, Aybar is league average, Kendrick is above average, and Callaspo is good at third. And the OF defense of Bourjus, Hunter, and Wells is probably the best in baseball---that's three centerfielders. (Although, it is true that only Bourjus is even decent in center anymore, but he is great.) I just don't see how the Angels aren't significant contenders.

[chancellor]

Just to pile on to what cavebird said - all of which I agree with - Trumbo's a fantastic insurance policy for them. Morales goes down again? Plug him into DH. Pujols gets hurt? Not many teams can get as good a power boost from their backup 1B. Wells or Hunter goes down, and you're not really sure you want to plug Trout into a playoff run? No problem - with Bourjos and either Wells or Hunter, the Halos can afford Trumbo's defense in a corner OF position. One of their big 4 SPs smokes their arm and the Halos need to go shopping? Hello, Mr. Trumbo is available.

[onejayhawk]

This doesn't make any sense to me. The Angels were in the division hunt until the final week of the season last year. The Rangers made a lateral move to slight upgrade by replacing Wilson with Darvish, and might get a little better with the other minor moves like adding Nathan and moving Feliz to the rotation, playing Napoli more, and not wasting time having Borbon prove he is not a major league hitter. The Angels bring back their entire team and add Pujols, Wilson, and Morales. They are co-favorites in the west to me. Saying their pitching is decent for a contender is a vast understatement. Name another AL contender, except perhaps Tampa, who has as good a top four in the rotation as Weaver, Haren, Wilson, and Santana? The lineup is pretty good, too, with Aybar solid at leadoff, Kendrick a good 2nd hole hitter, and the Pujols and Morales. Hunter is a far cry from what he was, but as a fifth hitter, he isn't horrible. Bourjus is good, too. Yes, they would do better to just release Abreu and replace Wells with Trout, but the offense is still fine. I don't see the defensive problem except for Trumbo, either. Pujols is good, Aybar is league average, Kendrick is above average, and Callaspo is good at third. And the OF defense of Bourjus, Hunter, and Wells is probably the best in baseball---that's three centerfielders. (Although, it is true that only Bourjus is even decent in center anymore, but he is great.) I just don't see how the Angels aren't significant contenders.

It would be fair point about the OF defensively, if Wells and Hunter were 5 years younger. As it is, the OF defense is merely decent. Bourjos is good, but Hunter has not been league average in years, and Wells was not a good fielder when he was fast. Offensively, they average .270, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 12 SB with Hunter and Wells both over 33. The IF defense is fair with Callaspo in, but he does not carry his weight with the bat.

My point is not that this is a bad team. My point is that it has too many issues to be in the thick of things. For the Rangers, another year means development for Ogando, Feliz, Holland and Harrison. For the Angels another year means further past 30 for some key players, including the whole rotation except Weaver. Darvish, Holland, Feliz, Harrison and Lewis has to rank with them, and its a lot younger.

J

[chancellor]

It would be fair point about the OF defensively, if Wells and Hunter were 5 years younger. As it is, the OF defense is merely decent. Bourjos is good, but Hunter has not been league average in years, and Wells was not a good fielder when he was fast.

Hunter has been below league average in a corner OF slot? Huh? Do you have anything to back that up? By my read, he was well above average in '09 and only average last year. Let's remember that he played a significant chunk of last year hurt, too. Wells, again, by my read, of RF and ZR, was above average in the other corner last year.

[cavebird]

It would be fair point about the OF defensively, if Wells and Hunter were 5 years younger. As it is, the OF defense is merely decent. Bourjos is good, but Hunter has not been league average in years, and Wells was not a good fielder when he was fast. Offensively, they average .270, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 12 SB with Hunter and Wells both over 33. The IF defense is fair with Callaspo in, but he does not carry his weight with the bat.

My point is not that this is a bad team. My point is that it has too many issues to be in the thick of things. For the Rangers, another year means development for Ogando, Feliz, Holland and Harrison. For the Angels another year means further past 30 for some key players, including the whole rotation except Weaver. Darvish, Holland, Feliz, Harrison and Lewis has to rank with them, and its a lot younger.

J

I agree with chancellor about the outfield defense. As for the rotation comparison: Weaver > Darvish, Haren >> Holland, Wilson > Feliz, Santana at least = Harrison, neither are using much in the fifth starter slot. In a few years, yes, Texas's rotation will be better, but for this year, the Angels's rotation has to be better. I see the defense as relatively even, and the Rangers lineup still better than the Angels's despite the Angels's additions. The Rangers' bullpen is probably a bit better, too, espeically with Ogando down there, so I see a slim advantage at best for the Rangers. I think it will be a close race all year. The Mariners and A's won't be particularly relevant.

[onejayhawk]

Hunter has been below league average in a corner OF slot? Huh? Do you have anything to back that up? By my read, he was well above average in '09 and only average last year. Let's remember that he played a significant chunk of last year hurt, too. Wells, again, by my read, of RF and ZR, was above average in the other corner last year.

The corner distinction is valid. I was comparing CF rankings:
2008 RF/G is 2.58, League RF/G is 2.69 and he wins the Gold Glove
2009 RF/G 2.70, LRF/G 2.70 GG
2010 RF/G 2.59, LRF/G 2.69
2011 RF/G No games in CF. OF RF/G 2.04, LRF/G 2.26

He was winning Gold Gloves with a range below average for CF. His defense fell off sharply the last two years, and in 2011 was not even league average for all OF. UZR tells the same story. This was a great defender, but not anymore.

Weaver > Darvish, Haren >> Holland, Wilson > Feliz, Santana at least = Harrison, neither are using much in the fifth starter slot.

What happened to Colby Lewis? To take them in Paul's order: Weaver>Holland; Darvish=Haren, Wilson>Harrison; Lewis>Santana. On the front four, I agree you should give the nod to the Angels going into the season. However, the next rank is all Texas, and Weaver, at 30, is the youngest member of the Angels' staff. Allowing for the significant difference in home ball park, I would say these are very comparable, with a nod to the younger staff.

J

[fuhrdog]

The Angels are one of the best teams in the AL.

[Hornsby]

The corner distinction is valid. I was comparing CF rankings:
2008 RF/G is 2.58, League RF/G is 2.69 and he wins the Gold Glove
2009 RF/G 2.70, LRF/G 2.70 GG
2010 RF/G 2.59, LRF/G 2.69
2011 RF/G No games in CF. OF RF/G 2.04, LRF/G 2.26

He was winning Gold Gloves with a range below average for CF. His defense fell off sharply the last two years, and in 2011 was not even league average for all OF. UZR tells the same story. This was a great defender, but not anymore.



What happened to Colby Lewis? To take them in Paul's order: Weaver>Holland; Darvish=Haren, Wilson>Harrison; Lewis>Santana. On the front four, I agree you should give the nod to the Angels going into the season. However, the next rank is all Texas, and Weaver, at 30, is the youngest member of the Angels' staff. Allowing for the significant difference in home ball park, I would say these are very comparable, with a nod to the younger staff.

J

You keep trying to change the argument to suit you...let's get it back on track,shall we? We're talking about this year, period...and as that is the case, the Angels have perhaps the best defensive outfield in baseball. They have a very good infield, if Trumbo is kept at bay. Their starters are better than the Rangers, and their bullpen is much improved from last year. The Rangers have an edge in offense, but not by as much as people might think.

As fuhrdog said, the Angels are one of the best teams in the AL, if not all of baseball. They'll be right there with Texas at the end of the year.

And as far as ranking the starters, let's let Darvish actually pitch for a few months before we deem him an equal to Haren...that's simply ridiculous at this point.

[cavebird]

The corner distinction is valid. I was comparing CF rankings:
2008 RF/G is 2.58, League RF/G is 2.69 and he wins the Gold Glove
2009 RF/G 2.70, LRF/G 2.70 GG
2010 RF/G 2.59, LRF/G 2.69
2011 RF/G No games in CF. OF RF/G 2.04, LRF/G 2.26

He was winning Gold Gloves with a range below average for CF. His defense fell off sharply the last two years, and in 2011 was not even league average for all OF. UZR tells the same story. This was a great defender, but not anymore.



What happened to Colby Lewis? To take them in Paul's order: Weaver>Holland; Darvish=Haren, Wilson>Harrison; Lewis>Santana. On the front four, I agree you should give the nod to the Angels going into the season. However, the next rank is all Texas, and Weaver, at 30, is the youngest member of the Angels' staff. Allowing for the significant difference in home ball park, I would say these are very comparable, with a nod to the younger staff.

J

Forgot about Colby. However, putting Holland and #1 is silly, because he isn't equal to Haren, so it is sandbagging to compare it that way. With Colby Lewis, I guess the Rangers are equal to Santana at #4 and definitely ahead at #5 (who the hell is the Angels' fifth starter anyway? I don't think they know either.) For the rest, I agree with Hornsby. It should be noted that since this a Trumbo thread, Callaspo started today.

[onejayhawk]

Forgot about Colby. However, putting Holland and #1 is silly, because he isn't equal to Haren, so it is sandbagging to compare it that way. With Colby Lewis, I guess the Rangers are equal to Santana at #4 and definitely ahead at #5 (who the hell is the Angels' fifth starter anyway? I don't think they know either.) For the rest, I agree with Hornsby. It should be noted that since this a Trumbo thread, Callaspo started today.

That's not me. That's Paul Sporer.

From his guide

Holland still had a few blowups after July 2nd (outings of 7 ER, 5 ER and one of 4 ER in 1.7 IP), but they were all but cancelled out by the fact that eight of his 15 starts saw him give up a run or hold the opposition scoreless (including three of his four shutouts). Though the cutoff date is an arbitrary split, there is a distinct change in his approach (scrapping the changeup) and the stats suggest he turned a corner, too.

D.Holland
Preiod IP ERA K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9
Thru 7/2 101 5.10 6.7 3.5 1.9 1.2
From 7/3 97 2.77 8.1 2.6 3.1 0.8

J