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As I discussed in this thread the last five seasons, it’s a challenge to predict which player will have a huge breakout season, but one way to help narrow it down is to take a look at which players should see a marked increase in playing time over the previous season.
It’s very tough to predict a breakout otherwise, unless you hit the jackpot. And even the most unwitting fantasy players land these guys every year because, quite frankly, someone has to, and it typically isn’t due to any real factual analysis. Did the guy in your league with Asdrubal Cabrera really know he was going to have a huge year? Probably not. As such, many breakouts are very hard to predict, because the past stats don’t indicate a major breakout or performance spike is on the horizon.
But it’s far easier to simply identify a player who will get much more playing time than he did last season or has been moved to a higher profile role, and then it will appear as if he broke out – simply because he put up better stats due to more at-bats or more important innings. And then you look like a genius. And that’s what this is all about, no?
Last year, we struck fantasy gold with Daniel Hudson, Desmond Jennings, Chris Sale, Ivan Nova, JP Arencibia, Freddie Freeman, Alexi Ogando, Russell Martin, Dillon Gee, Alex Gordon, Cameron Maybin, Matt Joyce, JJ Hardy, Daniel Murphy, Brandon League and Joel Hanrahan among those who weren’t considered “no-brainer” breakouts.
In 2010 we uncovered Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez, Casey McGehee, Wil Venable, Clay Buchholz, Wade Davis, Phil Hughes, Kelly Johnson, Juan Pierre, Ian Kennedy, Brett Myers, Daric Barton, Geovanny Soto, Brandon Morrow, Johnny Gomes, Colby Lewis, Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Billy Wagner, Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, Josh Hamilton & Ian Desmond.
In 2009 we found breakouts and performance spikes from Brett Gardner, Max Scherzer, Justin Upton, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Alberto Callaspo, Denard Span, Russell Branyan, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, Nyjer Morgan, Aaron Hill, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson and Josh Willingham.
In ‘08 we hit paydirt with Mark Reynolds, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Lastings Milledge, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Quentin, Willy Taveras, Justin Duchscherer, Jair Jurrjens, Edinson Volquez, Jon Lester, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Andrew Sonnanstine and Matt Garza.
And finally in 2007 we hit with Chris Duncan, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kelly Johnson, Shane Victorino, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy and Ian Kinsler, among others.
At the very least, these players represented a greater value than you likely paid for them.
So below is a list, some of whom are complete no-brainers, of players who will receive much more playing time than they did in 2011. The qualifications are the player had to have less than 375 ABs in 2011 to qualify, and pitchers should have had 110 IP or less, or are transitioning into different roles.
So without further ado, here is the list for 2K12:
<b><u>UP AND COMERS</u></b>
<b>Paul Goldschmidt, ARZ</b> -- Goldy crushed minor league pitching (.317 BA, 83 HRs in 315 games) and showed enough pop at the major league level to become Arizona’s everyday 1B in ’12. He also has a great batting eye, so he’ll hold more value in OBP leagues. He’s never failed at any level before which likely buys him a longer leash. He’s easily a solid gamble as a CI in most leagues.
<b>Dee Gordon, LA</b> -- Flash Gordon was paunchy and a pitcher, and his son Dee is the speedster….but he doesn’t inherit the nickname? Say what? Gordo hit .304 with a remarkable 24 SBs in 223 major league at-bats, and he once had a 73 SB year in the minors. Considering other speedy shortstops like Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Elvis Andrus are top 50 picks, with an ADP of 145, Gordon is a major value. Of course, the risk is he doesn’t hit and gets sent down, but that’s the chance you take for the possibility of the next Michael Bourn with MI eligibility.
<b>Brett Lawrie, TOR</b> -- what needs to be said about this guy? The rub on him is his ‘tude, but if he continues to hit like he did in his Toronto debut, who cares? You’re not his manager or his BFF. He’s already being drafted like a stud with an ADP of 55 and being drafted over the likes of ARod, Aramis and Sandoval. By season’s end, he could end up as the #1 ranked 3B, so perhaps it’s a small price to pay.
<b>Desmond Jennings, TB</B> -- like Lawrie, Jennings is already being drafted at a stud’s price (ADP: 56), so he really has to live up to his end of the bargain considering he’s being taken over the likes of Michael Bourn, Alex Gordon, Adam Jones and BJ Upton, which really puts it into perspective. Still, it’s hard to argue with 10 HRs and 24 SBs in just 247 ABs (and tossed in 31 BBs, too), stats that are making fantasy players woozy with his 20-50 potential. He could be a fantasy stud if he swims, but if he sinks, it may be your team swimming with the fishies. Considering his price tag, there’s a huge amount of risk involved, but the rewards could be great.
<b>Dustin Ackley, SEA</b> -- Ackley seemed destined for greatness since being drafted 2nd overall in the ’10 amateur draft, and held his own in his 330 at-bat stint in Seattle. Obviously, being a member of the M’s curbs his stat potential, but if things start to break their way, Ackley can be a good 5-category bat. He’s being drafted as such, as his ADP of 137 attests (over Espinosa & Walker). I’d like to roster him, but his price tag seems high for perhaps a 15-15 type.
<b>Jose Altuve, HOU</b> -- has a good mix of power and speed (or at least he did in the minors), and is slated to take over the Astros second sacker job. A career .327 hitter in the minors, Altuve hit .276 in 221 ABs last season. You could do worse with a late-round flyer.
<b>JD Martinez, HOU</b> -- an unheralded 20th round pick in the ’09 amateur draft, Martinez has done nothing but obliterate minor league pitching. The Astros gave him a chance last year and he held his own in 208 major league at-bats, hitting both righties and lefties equally well. Unless he slumps badly, expect Martinez to hold the job all season and be a solid OF starter in deep leagues.
<b>Alex Presley, PIT</b> -- Hit .298 in 215 major league at-bats with good power and speed, and the Bucs say the job’s his to lose. He hasn’t hit LHPs well in his major league career to date, so perhaps he’ll get platooned, but Presley is a good late round flyer in deep leagues who can get double digit steals and HRs.
<b>Henderson Alvarez, TOR</b> -- The 21-year old exhibited great control in his major league debut, walking just 8 batters in 64 innings. That’s not surprising since he’s hardly walked anyone in his entire pro career, with just a miniscule 1.7 BB/9 to his credit. While he does give up his share of hits, if he can keep the ball in the park (he gave up 8 HRs in his major league stint, too), he could be a sneaky late round flyer.
<b>Jason Kipnis, CLE</b> -- I became a fan when I saw him play for Columbus last summer, and he looked like he was head and shoulders above anyone else on the field that day. Has good pop and emerging speed for a 2B, and it showed in his 135 AB debut. The second bagger spot is quickly becoming loaded with up and comers and solid older players, but as the 14th rated 2B by ADP, he seems worthy of his price tag.
<b>Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE</b>-- he obviously didn’t wow fantasy players in his MLB debut (.255, 8 HRs in 212 at bats) as he’s running with an ADP in the 250s. He’s a career .272 batter in the minors, which makes him a BA risk; and he has no speed and only so-so pop. He does show a good nose for driving in and scoring runs, and this Indian team is an emerging unit. I’d take a chance.
<b>Kyle Seager, SEA</b> -- the 24-year old beat up minor league pitchers the last two seasons at three stops between A and AAA, but he rolled craps in his 182 at bat major league debut (.258, 1 HR), and fantasy leagues have punished him for that with an undrafted rank to date. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik would like to have Seager win the job and Chone Figgins become a super-utility type, but Seager will have to prove that his bat has made the transition. He could become a solid early season FAAB investment if he wins the job.
<b>Trayvon Robinson, SEA</b> -- as a Dodger fan, I wasn’t pleased to see Robinson dealt to Seattle for a bucket of baseballs, even if he had been in the Dodger system since ’05. But just as he began to emerge as a good power/speed type who can actually hit, he gets traded for other minor leaguers. Robinson may be ticketed for AAA or a bench role with the M’s, but if he wins a starting job he could become a sneaky source of speed (he does get caught a lot, however) for a cheap price.
<b>Blake Beavan, SEA</b> -- acquired in the Cliff Lee deal, the Beav performed admirably in almost 100 major league innings last season: 4.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, but just a miniscule 3.9 K/9 to go along with that. It’s that itsy-bitsy K rate that has fantasy leaguers turned off, and he’s likely never going to be a good source of Ks. But his pinpoint control should result in low WHIPs, and who knows – maybe he’s this year’s Josh Tomlin?
<b>Mike Moustakas, KC</b> -- just like Anthony Rizzo, Moustakas pissed in fantasy leaguer’s Cheerios last year with his .263/5/30 line in 340 at-bats – decidedly NOT what most were thinking when they drafted him, considering his monster 2010 at AA ball: .322/26/124 in 118 games. So which Moustakas shows up on your team after you draft him? That’s the million dollar question, but since 3B is a weak group, he could provide huge value in the later rounds.
<b>Eric Thames, TOR</b> -- he’s not guaranteed to get playing time in Toronto’s crowded outfield, but he’s got enough power to gain an expanded role – especially if Travis Snider craps the bed again. He’s definitely worth a late round flyer.
<b>Trevor Plouffe, MIN</b> -- he was an unexciting minor leaguer with four seasons at AAA, but finally last season something clicked and he began pounding the ball, hitting 15 HRs and putting up an OPS of over 1.000. The Plouffe then continued his power surge in the majors, stroking another 8 HRs. While he doesn’t have a starting job now, keep in mind the Twins are starting Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit – not exactly the picture of durability.
<b>Johnny Giavotella, KC</b> -- he hit well in the minors (.322 and .338 his last two seasons), has decent speed and a good batting eye (which he didn’t exhibit in KC), so he fits in well with the Royals’ youth movement. He could be a solid value as a late round draft pick.
<b>Salvador Perez, KC</b> -- the 21-year old impressed with a .336 BA in 183 at bats in 2011 (but that may have been due to a .362 BABIP), and he’s very good defensively. Obviously the Royals think he’ll be a long-term starter for them behind the dish, as they just locked him up for the next five years. What else he may give you, I don’t know.
<b>Tyler Flowers, CWS</b> -- hits well, but is sub-par defensively, and it’s that which could be his undoing. He may sit behind Pierzynski, so he’s likely to go undrafted in most mixed leagues. He could still provide decent value if he gets 300+ ABs in ’12, so watch him on the waiver wire.
<b>Ruben Tejada, NYM</b> --he hit better and got on-base more in his 365 at bats last year with the Mets more than he ever did in the minors, so perhaps he’s growing as a batter. But he doesn’t have any power and has only marginal speed, but he’s a virtual lock for 550 ABs, which could mean 70 Runs. So at least he’s got that going for him, which is nice.
<b>Jimmy Paredes, HOU</b> -- he doesn’t have a lot of power for a third baseman, but he does have wheels – he stole 50 bags in A-ball in 2010. He’ll have to overcome his high K% to stick in the majors, but what does Houston have to lose? He’ll likely go undrafted in most leagues and could be a sneaky source of steals.
<b><u>PAID THEIR DUES</B></U>
<b>John Mayberry, Jr., PHI</b> -- The Phils waited patiently for Mayberry to show major league ability, and he finally rewarded them in ’11 with 15 HRs and 8 SBs in just 267 at-bats. With Ryan Howard’s Achilles injury, Mayberry is likely to open the year as his replacement and could stick as a full-timer in LF after his return. His big drawback is that he’s a career .258 hitter in the minors, so using that as a baseline, he probably has a low margin of error.
<b>Allen Craig, STL</b> -- the post-season hero hit .315 with 11 HRs in just 215 ABs, so he’s become the savvy fantasy player’s breakout hope. Plus, he’s a career .310 hitter in the minors with good power, so those stats aren’t a fluke. Finding playing time could be tough though, especially if his 2B defense does not improve. He had knee surgery in November and may not be ready for opening day, but that may just make his price tag cheaper. Buy him on sale, and draft him and stash him.
<b>AJ Ellis, LA</b> -- the 30-year old is not a sexy pick by any stretch, but he’s a huge OBP threat as he has a career .360 OBP in the majors and over .400 in the minors. He may not do much else, but man, he sure knows how to take a walk!
<b>Lorenzo Cain, KC</b> -- the Royals cleared a spot for Cain after selling high on Melky Cabrera, and now they have to hope he can come close to duplicating the Melk Man’s surprising feats. Cain had a boffo year at AAA, hitting .312 with 16 HRs and 16 SBs, but after toiling for seven years in the minors, his burgeoning power/speed combo can likely be had at a bargain basement price.
<b>Brandon Allen, OAK</b> -- the well-traveled Allen just can’t catch a break, with the A’s piling up on 1B/OF types this off-season, throwing his playing status into question. He has good power, but his hitting ability so far has not translated to the majors. Is he an AAAA player? If he finally gets the time and plays well, he could potentially give you a solid .260/20/75 return on a small investment.
<b>Mike Carp, SEA</b> -- the 25-year old finally got a chance after eight minor league seasons, and he played well, hitting .276 with 12 HRs in 290 at bats. But he also plays for the Mariners, and we all know what that means. He could post a solid 20/75 season at a very low cost, so the risk/reward is high.
<b>Ross Detwiler, WAS</B> -- the 6’5” righty was a late-season solid play, rolling off a 4-5 record with a 3.21 ERA in 9 starts. If the Nats are successful in dishing off John Lannan, Detwiler should step into the #5 spot in the rotation and could provide solid value.
<b>Lucas Duda, NYM</b> - the Duda abides! The 26-year old provided a spark for the Mets in ’11, hitting .292 with 10 HRs and 50 RBIs in 301 ABs. Duda was a solid minor league hitter with good power and has RF all to himself, so Duda should be a solid 4th fantasy OFer at a very low cost.
<b>Jerome Williams, LAA</b> -- the blast from the past literally came out of nowhere in ’11, after not appearing in the majors since 2007 and not being remotely successful there since 2005. But he went 4-0 with decent stats, and appears in line to land the #5 spot on a powerful Angels team. Can the 30-year old hold the job and pitch competently? That remains to be seen, but he’s got a chance.
<b>Mike Napoli, TEX</b> -- Big Nap had his best season in ’11, batting .320 with 30 HRs, 70 Runs and 75 RBIs, yet somehow did all that damage in just 369 ABs. In six major league seasons, Napoli has just one season of greater than 450 ABs, but after a monster post-season where he emerged a Texas folk hero along the lines of Daniel Boone, you can be assured Napoli’s plate appearances will increase dramatically. Even if his BA comes down to .270, he’s a sneaky threat for 100 runs and RBIs and 35 HRs. There aren’t too many catchers who can do that nowadays!
<b>Nick Hundley, SD</b> -- the 28-year old had a .362 BABIP fueled year, which helped him post a .288 BA with 9 HRs in 285 ABs. Even with top prospect Yasmani Grandal on the immediate horizon, Hundley should garner enough plate appearances to be a low end, cheap, startable catcher, and can be a good value in 2-catcher leagues.
<b>Jason Bourgeois, HOU</b> -- after 11 seasons in the minors, the 29-year old finally got significant time in the majors and was electrifying until being derailed by hammy problems. The “fantasy dynamo” hit .294 and stole a remarkable 31 bases in just 238 at-bats. The rebuilding ‘Stros may not have room for a 30-year old journeyman who can’t seem to hit righties, but if Plan A falls apart, he’s Plan B.
<b>Brian Bogusevic, HOU</b> -- Bogusevic is another of Houston’s speedy outfielders, and he has a knack for not getting caught: he had a 74-to-8 SB/CS ratio in the minors. He doesn’t have a ton of power, especially for a RFer, and at age 28 he’s past his peak already, but he could provide some value in ’12.
<b>Bryan LaHair, CHC</b> -- LaHair had a monster year at AAA in ’11: .331, 38 HRs, 109 RBIs, and the Cubs are saying he’s the guy, but they did just trade for top prospect Anthony Rizzo, so one would have to imagine the leash is short. Is he a quadruple-A type, or can his skills translate? Either he’ll be a nice pickup or he’ll be on waiver wires by the end of May.
<b>Chris Heisey, CIN</b> -- another of Cincy’s talented young hitters, Heisey had a power outburst in ’11: 18 HRs in just 279 at bats. And just as it seemed Heisey would be the full-time guy, the Reds signed re-tread Ryan Ludwick to take his starting job, apparently believing Heisey’s problems against lefties are real. If Heisey gets the better side of the platoon, he’s still worth rostering. I’d take a chance.
<b>Wilson Betemit, BAL</b> -- between Chris Davis’ hitting inconsistencies and an open DH spot, Betemit may finally be in line for full-time at-bats. Does that mean anyone should care? He does have good pop and can drive in runs, so if given 450 at bats, he could be good for 20 HRs and 60+ RBIs.
<b>Alejandro de Aza, CWS</b> -- kicked ass in a 150 at-bat trial in ’11 (.329, .920 OPS, 12 SBs), de Aza is the early favorite to start in CF for the White Sox. He has a tendency to get caught stealing a lot (170/70 SB/CS rate in the minors), but if he hits .300+ again, I’m sure the ChiSox will forgive him. He can definitely be a late round steal in many leagues.
<b>DIFF’RENT STROKES</B>
<B>Rafael Betancourt, COL</b> -- could also be listed in the “Paid Their Dues” section, Betancourt finally becomes a full-time closer at the age of 37 and heading into his 10th season. Betancourt has been lights out since joining Colorado, with a WHIP around 0.88 in his 2 ˝ years there. He does have a bit of a “Matt Thornton-syndrome” to him, but I’d feel comfortable despite never having had the job before.
<b>Brett Myers</b> -- Myers was named the Astros closer, and while that pokes a huge hole in their staff, his value just rocketed skyward.
<b>Jim Johnson, BAL</b> -- was anointed the guy in September after someone finally realized Kevin Gregg sucks, and Johnson responded with 7 consecutive saves. He’s not your typical closer in that he doesn’t really strike anyone out, and as such, he should be very cheap in fantasy drafts.
<b>Oakland Closing Mess</b> -- it’s hard to say who emerges victorious in Oakland, and it remains to be seen if the A’s can win & score enough to make any closer actually relevant. The early money appears to be going on Grant Balfour, but it would not be surprising to see re-tread Brian Fuentes get opps either.
<b>Matt Thornton/Addison Reed, CWS</b> - another messy situation, fantasy players are very reluctant to anoint Thornton the guy after burning so many last season. Plus, he has that whole lefty thing going on. On the other hand (literally), Addison Reed rocketed up the minors, devastating hitters with a 1.41 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 12.9 K rate, which he then mimicked in the majors. My money’s on Reed.
<B>Chris Sale, CWS</b> - Sale replaces the departed Mark Buehrle in the ChiSox’ deep starting rotation. He was a starter in college but became a reliever in the pros, and has since dominated batters with a 2.58 career ERA in the majors & minors combined. His K% is strong at 10.0/9, and his K/BB ratio is a solid 3.00. My money’s on him being very solid.
<b>Aroldis Chapman, CIN</b> -- Chapman is preparing to start, but the Reds have too many starters and not enough spots. They need to boot Bronson Arroyo out to make room, but it’s doubtful some team would want to take on his contract. The Cuban Missile also would need to dramatically cut down on his walks -- which was a bloated 7.4 per 9 innings last season -- to successfully transition to starterdom. I wouldn’t pay too high a price for him, as those walks will blow his WHIP up enough to negate his high K%.
<b>Daniel Bard, BOS</b> -- one of five above-average bullpenners transitioning to the rotation, Bard comes off a very solid 3-year stint as Jonathan Papelbon’s setup man. He’s very stingy with the hits, but he enjoys giving out a free pass or two or three (career average: 3.5 per 9). Like Chapman, if he can keep the walks down, he could become a very successful starter.
<b>Aaron Crow, KC</b> - -Crow had a solid rookie year in ’11 and the Royals have decided he’s better suited for the rotation. Like the others making the move to starting, he’s going to have to cut down on the walks to succeed: he averaged 4.5 free passes per 9 last season. He was a starter in the minors and the results weren’t pretty – 5.26 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 32 starts – but he was a top prospect, so perhaps he straightens it out. I think I’d make sure he does that first before dropping him into your rotation. Maybe he’ll make me eat crow.
<b>Neftali Feliz</b> -- the Texas rotation is deep, but the Rangers signed Joe Nathan to take Feliz’ closing job, so there’s no question he’s locked into a starting spot. Unlike Crow, Feliz started and dominated in the minors, so the questions about “if he could do it” should be erased. Feliz could be a sleeper All-Star starting pitcher.
<b>BLOOM’S OFF THE ROSE</B>
<b>Mike Minor, ATL</b> -- seemingly solidified a job in the rotation, Minor still has an ADP of just 236 after being nothing more than mediocre in 123 MLB innings. He recently mouthed off about requesting a trade if he did not get a major league job, so someone needs to tell him to keep his trap shut. Solid Atlanta starters grow on trees, so I’d bet on Minor’s success in 2K12.
<b>Mat Gamel, MLW</b> -- a few years after being considered a top prospect (#34 by Baseball America in pre-2009), this is likely Gamel’s last shot to attain a starting job in the majors. And that comes with no pressure, having just been declared Prince Fielder’s successor at 1B (sarcasm alert!). The soon-to-be 27 year old has a paltry .222 career BA in 171 major league ABs, and he has not exhibited any of his minor league batting skills. Still, he stands a good chance of going undrafted in thin leagues, and so he is a solid risk/reward player.
<b>Nolan Reimold</b> -- despite having a huge September (5 HRs & 6 SBs), Reimold’s still flying under the radar, going undrafted in a great majority of leagues. Fangraph’s projectors have him with a .265/17/55 average, and that seems like a low entry point.
<b>David Freese, STL</b> -- he was probably only known by Cardinal fans and fantasy leaguers prior to his post-season heroics, but you don’t just dominate a post-season like Freese did and then fall on your face. And while everyone knows Freese can hit, he was more well-known for his injuries than anything else before the World Series. If he can stay healthy, he can rise to the top of a weak 3B class, but if the injury bug hits again, he’s just as likely to fade back into oblivion.
<b>Travis Snider, TOR</b> -- Snider was rated as high as #6 by Baseball America (pre-’09), but had a miserable ’11 campaign that saw him demoted to AAA for such a long stretch that many fantasy leaguers wanted to forget they ever drafted him. With an ADP in the mid-400s now, he can be had for a song, but Toronto’s OF is super-deep and it’ll be a “what have you done for me lately” thing. But he does have the tools to finally stick.
<b>Brett Wallace, HOU</b> -- the formerly highly-regarded (but oft-traded) prospect may not even have a spot in Houston, but he is being moved back to 3B which may give him some value. The only thing Wallace did well last season was strike out, so this may be his last chance for a while.
<b>Jordan Schafer, HOU</b> -- Schafer was once the most highly thought of prospect in the deep Atlanta system, but fell flat on his face in a 167 at-bat tryout in 2009 (as well as a miserable 2010 in the minors), and was exiled to Houston last season. He may not hit enough to make much of an impact, but stranger things have happened.
<b>Pedro Alvarez, PIT</b> -- I wrote in this space last year that “30 HRs are already baked into his value” since he was going at such as high cost in drafts. Lo and behold, Alvarez hit a paltry .208 with just 2 HRs before being demoted – where he didn’t hit well either – and then returned for an untriumphant 2nd half of more pathetic-ness. He could now be had for a fraction of his 2011 price tag, but which Alvarez shows up?
<b>Jerry Sands, LA</b> -- a hot waiver wire pickup in mid-April after his recall, Sands didn’t show any of his minor league skills in his 200 at-bats, hitting just .253 with 4 HRs, and was demoted two months later for most of the season. As such, his bandwagon is noticeably lighter – but note that he didn’t let it get to him, and crushed AAA pitching again to the tune of a .931 OPS and 29 HRs. He has nothing more to prove at AAA, that’s for sure.
<b>Eric Young, Jr., COL</b> -- after almost being dealt to purgatory -- the NY Mets -- in January after his third straight .240ish season, Young still doesn’t have a role in Colorado and may be turned into a super-utility. Regardless, his speed (27 SBs last season) can help any fantasy team.
<b>Brandon Belt, SF</b> -- Belt was a hot commodity in early April, but the Baby Giraffe didn’t do much with the stick and was soon sent back to AAA for more seasoning. His batting eye and power are for real, so if he finally figures it out in the majors, you can expect big things.
<b>ON THE ROAD AGAIN</B>
<b>Chris Davis, BAL</b> -- Davis was solid, if unspectacular, in 2011 after his absolutely miserable 2010 campaign. He again crushed minor league pitching to the tune of a .368 BA with 24 HRs in just 48 games, but after being traded to Baltimore, didn’t do much again. Is it just a matter of time for Davis, or will he become the newest member of the AAAA club?
<b>Ian Stewart, CHC</b> -- Stewart spent five years on Baseball America’s top prospect lists, but when it came time for graduation, he wasn’t nearly the player he was in the minors (.236 career BA, and a ghastly 21 OPS+ in 2011). Traded for another failed top prospect (Tyler Colvin), Stewart will look to regain his touch in Wrigley. If you can stand the low BA potential, he could be a cheap source of power.
<b>Travis Wood, CHC</b> -- a solid starter moving intra-division, he was one of Theo’s first acquisitions as Cubs’ GM. He was dominant in the minors, so maybe he repays Theo for the rotation spot with a glimpse of his salad days. He’s cheeep, too!
<b>Josh Reddick, OAK</b> -- did surprisingly well in Boston, but was sent packing as the centerpiece of the Andrew Bailey deal. Oakland loaded up on outfielders, but Reddick should be able to emerge above the fray. Was a minor league stud for a couple of years, so if he re-finds that greatness, he could be a huge value. But that’s a big if.
<b>Jason Kubel, ARZ</b> -- was having a marginal year when a sprained foot ended it, and he’s since moved on to Arizona. Here he’ll take the place of Gerardo Parra, who while inept with the stick, was a Gold Glover in leftfield. And no one confuses Kubel with anything close to a Gold Glove fielder. Last I checked, the NL doesn’t have the DH, so……if Kubel doesn’t hit well, and he’s a poor defender, what’s he going to do? Bid cautiously here.
<b>Andres Torres, NYM</b> -- Torres came out of nowhere in 2010 and had a boffo year (.268, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 26 SB) before crawled back under the rock he emerged from. After being traded for fellow surprising journeyman Angel Pagan, Torres will hope to re-find the magic in CitiField at the age of 34. The good news is that he’s essentially locked in as the CF/leadoff hitter with virtually nothing on the horizon. So at least he has that going for him, which is nice. Bill Murray must be a Mets fan.
<b>Chris Iannetta, LAA</b> -- the Angels look to make up for the egregious error of trading Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells by bringing in a Napoli clone – a good power, high OBP catcher with questionable catching ability. Still, Angel fans are calling the importing of Iannetta “The December Miracle,” as they can finally write off the Jeff (.194 BA) Mathis era. Manager Mike Scioscia loves catchers like himself – good defenders, crappy hitters – but with new sheriff Jerry DiPoto in town, those days are over, and Iannetta has what Napoli never had: the place to himself. A great value for ’12.
<b>Edinson Volquez, SD</b> -- A power pitcher in San Diego? What’s not to love? Except for the fact he can’t stay healthy. But if he can, he can be a huge bargain.
<b>Kevin Slowey, CLE</b> -- he didn’t even have time to find the local grocery in Denver when he was dealt to Cleveland to replace Fausto Heredia Roberto Carmona Hernandez. Slowey’s an extreme control pitcher who had an epic meltdown in 2011: 0-8, 6.67 ERA before Minny mercifully pulled the plug. With a career K/BB ratio of 4.70, many would give him a pass on 2K11 and take a shot. I’m in that boat.
<b>Anthony Rizzo, CHC</b> -- a top prospect who had a completely inept rookie campaign (.141 BA, .241 SLG), yet decimated AAA pitchers with a .331 BA and 26 HRs. Chicago says they’re going with Bryan LaHair, but he has a very short leash.
<b>Marco Scutaro, COL</b> -- the 36-year old gets a new lease on life with his move to Colorado, where he’ll take over the 2B job. Just two years ago he hit .287 with 100 Runs, 12 HRs, 60 RBIs and 14 SBs – and now he’s in Coors. Could big a nice sleeper.
<b>Manny Ramirez, OAK</b> -- Mannywood moves up the Pacific Coast Highway to Oakland, after briefly making a pit stop in Tampa and retirement. But he’s suspended for the season’s first 50 games, so we’ll see Manny in June. If he can still hit, why not?
<b>THE HURT LOCKER</B>
<b>Adam LaRoche, WAS</b> - was routinely money until getting hurt in ’11, and now he may not have a job. Obviously has more risk associated with him than he has in recent years, but that will only make him cheaper.
<b>Ike Davis, NYM</b> -- was beginning to emerge as an elite 1B option when a seemingly minor ankle injury in June KO’d him for the rest of the season (thanks Met doctors!). If healthy, he should continue his upward climb.
<b>Johan Santana, NYM</b> -- the ominous words are starting to come out: “we’re not counting on him,” and “anything over 125 IP is gravy.” Combine shoulder injury with his lower strikeout rate in recent years, and you may have all you need to not spend a high pick or dollars on him.
<b>Adam Wainwright, STL</b> -- missed the entire 2011 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on 2/24/11. Will he be 100% healthy after coming back just 13 months later? Probably won’t be his Cy Young caliber self until next season. And pay for 150 innings.
<b>Kyle Blanks, SD</b> -- the oft-injured Blanks got squeezed with the addition of uber-prospect Yonder Alonso, so if Blanks plays, it will be at the expense of a corner outfielder not named Carlos Quentin.
<b>Buster Posey, SF</b> - - suffered a gruesome ankle injury in May, and it showed just how exposed catchers really are. He was being drafted as the 2nd or 3rd ranked catcher in 2011, but his injury (and relative ineffectiveness prior to it) has dropped his value dramatically. Can he rebound and continue his upward trajectory?
<b>Phil Hughes, NYY</b> -- badly burned fantasy owners with a meltdown of epic proportions in the season’s first-half, as his fastball was missing the “fast” part and he got lit up like a Christmas tree. He rebounded somewhat in the second half, but was nowhere near the 2010 version and the damage was done. The Yanks cleared a spot for him with the AJ Burnett trade, but his former supporters are naturally gun shy.
<b>Stephen Strasburg, WAS</b> -- came back from TJ surgery with a September cup o’coffee and continued his dominating ways. Fantasy leaguers are salivating at the prospects of Strasburg’s first full season, but the Nats said they will cap his innings at 160 like they did with Jordan Zimmermann. He may have Top 5 pitcher potential, but 160 IP is 2/3rds the total of Verlander.
<b>Grady Sizemore, CLE</b> -- Sizemore is like Ben Affleck – it’s hard to believe he was once a top option, and now anything decent you get out of him is a pure bonus. Injuries have taken their toll on the former perennial AL MVP candidate, as he hasn’t hit above .250 since 2009 and has only 4 SBs the last two seasons, including NONE in 295 PAs last year. He did hit 10 HRs last season, so the power is still there, but the speed appears drained. He had knee surgery in October, and is already on the shelf, so what can or should anyone expect in ’12? Probably more of the same. But hey, Affleck recently had a hit with The Town, so anything’s possible…..
<b>Kendrys Morales, LAA</b> -- burned many an owner with his expectation of a May return, only to miss the entire year. The Angels promptly signed Albert Pujols to man his position, and with 2011 replacement Mark Trumbo having done very well, there’s suddenly a playing time squeeze. He could end up with anywhere from 350-500 at bats, so draft accordingly.
<b>Daniel Murphy, NYM</b> -- another of the Mets walking wounded, Murphy was actually leading the NL in batting when he blew his knee out. And this after he missed the entire 2010 season, so he can squarely be found on the “injury prone” rack. But he’s a career .290 batter, and with 2B eligibility, he makes for a sneaky potential top-tier play.
<b>Alex Rodriguez, NYY</b> -- injuries and age are starting to take their toll on the perennial Top 3 fantasy pick, as he hasn’t played in more than 140 games since 2007 and had a career-low 373 ABs last season. He hasn’t hit higher than .286 since ’08, his stolen base days appear to be over, and his SLG% is on a dramatic 5-year schneid. At age 37, can we expect his former greatness? In a middling 3B category, he’s still worthy of a high pick, but don’t expect the A-Rod of old.
<b>Shin-Soo Choo, CLE</b> -- it was a disastrous year for Choo, as the possibility of being drafted into the South Korean army and then a freak injury cost him almost half the season. And when he did play, he was far from the .300/.400 20/20 playmaker fantasy owners grew to love. With his fears of fighting the North Koreans at an end, expect Choo to rebound nicely.
<b>Joe Mauer, MIN</b> -- the Twins were up against a barrel when they handed hometown homey Joe Mauer one of the largest contracts in baseball history, and he re-paid them by having the worst season of his career as he fought off various maladies. We all know Mauer can hit (career .323 BA) – but is it a high, yet empty BA? There isn’t anyone who expects Mauer to come close to his career-high 28 HRs, but is 15 even feasible any longer? If he’s able to hit .310/15/75, does that make Mauer worthy of consideration atop the catcher rankings? Why am I asking so many questions? He’s an excellent gamble, but don’t overpay.
<b>Denard Span, MIN</b> -- the poor Twins were ravaged by injuries and underperformance in ’11, and it cost GM Bill Smith his job. Span had three solid years as the Twins starting CFer before a disastrous 2011: career lows in BA & OBP, and was suffering through a huge power and speed outage (just 6 SBs in 311 plate appearances), before concussions ended his year. Span needs to rebound, as youngsters are on the horizon, and while he says he’s over his concussion, we’ve all seen how easy they are to return. A huge question mark in ’12.
<b>Justin Morneau, MIN</b> -- speaking of concussions, no career has been more decimated by them recently than Morneau’s. He’s missed almost 175 games the last two seasons, and dropped from an elite 1B to afterthought. You can’t count on Morneau for more than 75 games, so pay for that and consider anything above that as gravy.
<b>Hanley Ramirez, MIA</b> -- did any one player kill fantasy teams more than Han-Ram? The consensus top 3 pick was a fantasy Hindenburg, hitting just .243 in 338 ABs before his season ended for good on August 2nd. And now, with Jose Reyes stealing his coveted shortstop job, he’s been moody and pugnacious about moving to 3B. So does Hanley still deserve 1st or 2nd round fantasy consideration? The good news is that he was on pace for similar career average totals in Runs, RBIs, HRs and SBs, so it was only his average that went over the cliff. He’s still risky as a Top 25 pick, but if healthy, he should be able to rebound.
<b>Stephen Drew, ARZ</b> -- a fractured ankle sunk Drew’s season after 86 games, which was too bad as Drew was on pace to obliterate his season RBI high (he had 45, and his seasonal high was 67). He’s kind of streaky, as his power and BA have fluctuated wildly, but if healthy, he should be able to put up a .270/15/65 line.
<b>Ryan Doumit, MIN</b> -- just what the Twins need, another injury prone player (sarcasm alert!). Doumit’s never played in more than 125 games in a season, and in seven big-league years, has just two 100+ game seasons. ‘nuff said. Buuuuut…..he did hit .303 last year, and if he DHs often, maybe he’ll stay healthy for a change. There are worse end-game sleepers to choose.
<b>Josh Johnson, MIA</b> -- was on his way to the NL Cy Young award when he broke down with arm troubles after just 9 starts. He’s already pitched in spring training and said he feels OK, but that doesn’t mean much over the course of a 162 game season (of which, Johnson has completed just once in his 7-year career). A huge gamble that can be worth the risk, just don’t make him your ace.
<b>Brian Roberts, BAL</b> -- what to make of Brian Roberts? In recent interviews you can read between the lines and think his career’s over, which would be a shame since he can still play. He’s about as risky as they come – you may not get a single at-bat out of him – but the payoff could be big since many fantasy owners are avoiding him like the plague.
<b>Kris Medlen, ATL</b> -- had a breakout season in ’10 before blowing out his elbow, and his name is rarely mentioned when discussing the Braves rotation. But injury woes and immaturity among their pitchers could lead to a re-birth of Medlen in the rotation. He’s worth a late round flyer or a $1 bid.
<b>Luke Scott, TB</b> -- Scott resurfaces in TB and takes over the DH role. Unexciting, except when he’s making ill-advised comments about the President, he was remarkably consistent: 23-27 HRs, 70ish RBIs and 60ish Runs for three consecutive years until he crapped the bed last season with a .220 BA and just 9 HRs. Will the old Scott resurface? He could be a solid mixed league utility player who can be had cheap.
<B>THE STUD ROOKIES</B>
<b>Bryce Harper, WAS</b> -- one of many acclaimed rookies who could play big roles for their teams in ’12, the power prodigy has the backing of manager Davey Johnson, and if he has a solid camp, could walk away with the RF job. Is just 19 and has just one year of professional ball under his belt, so be careful not to have too big a mancrush.
<b>Matt Moore, TB</b> -- Matt Moore has pitched all of 9 regular season innings in the majors, yet he’s being drafted over the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Carpenter, as well as former Ray phenom Jeremy Hellickson. The latter may be the best reason to not overpay – Hell Boy was very, very solid, but his K% didn’t translate to the majors, and already fantasy leaguers have frowned upon him. The King is Dead, Long Live the King!
<b>Jesus Montero, SEA</b> -- speaking of being heavily counted on, Montero was acquired for potential ace Michael Pineda, and Seattle is pinning its offensive hopes on the young slugger. Has good power, but can anyone hit HRs at Safeco?
<b>Mike Trout, LAA</b> -- another top prospect many fantasy leaguers are salivating over, Trout is a true 5-tool fantasy threat. In his 123 at bat stint with the Angels last season, he showed the same pop and speed he displayed in the minors. If he wins the LF job in spring training, he’s a certain Rookie of the Year contender, but pay for 350 major league at bats.
<b>Yu Darvish, TEX</b> - the Japanese league sensation heads to Texas and almost instantly becomes the ace of the staff. I’d have to imagine Nolan Ryan knows pitchers when he sees one, so Darvish has a chance to be the stud many think he’ll be. And with an ADP of 122 and the 35th starting pitcher off the board, he could deliver a high ROI.
<b>Yoenis Cespedes, OAK</b> -- another potential stud in a very deep rookie class, Cespedes takes over CF and could pay instant fantasy dividends….or he could find himself in need of more seasoning in the minors. Pay for 350-400 at bats and monitor how he handles major league pitching in spring training.
<b>Yonder Alonso, SD</b> -- the prize of the Mat Latos deal, Alonso instantly usurps Jesus Guzman at 1B. Clubbed major league pitching in a 98 at-bat showcase last season (.330, 5 HRs), and is being heavily counted on to continue that in SD.
<b>THE OTHER ROOKIES</B>
<b>Tyler Pastornicky, ATL</b> -- appears to have Atlanta’s SS job to himself. He has little power but once stole 57 bases in the minors, so he could be a cheap source of speed in deep mixed or NL leagues.
<b>Zack Cozart, CIN</b> -- hard to say what we’re gonna see from Cozart – he showed decent power and had one above-average speed year (30 SBs) in the minors – but he likely has the full-time job at SS in Cincy. Could be a good end gamer.
<b>Jacob Turner, DET</b> -- has a good shot at Detroit’s 5th spot in the rotation if he has a solid spring.
<b>Jarrod Parker, OAK</b> -- he’s been ranked by Baseball America as a Top 50 prospect for four consecutive years, and should finally have a major league job. Didn’t have “blow me away” stats, but Billy Beane seems to be able to pick solid pitching prospects, and that should be enough for a late round flier.
<b>Brad Peacock, OAK</b> -- another of Beane’s rotation overhaul for 2K12, Peacock wasn’t much of a prospect until last season, when he finally mastered his knuckle curve and went 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA at AA-AAA ball (this after three losing, mediocre seasons). He’ll probably go undrafted in all but the deepest leagues, so monitor his progress while he’s available on the waiver wire.
<b>Tom Milone, OAK</b> -- the last of Oakland’s new rookie triumvirate, Milone put up similarly solid numbers as he was promoted through the minors the last three years, and then had a solid cup o’coffee with Washington. If he can keep up his progress, he could be a solid SP5 or SP6 in deep leagues.
<b>Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA</b> -- another Japanese import, Iwakuma should nail down a spot in Seattle’s rotation. Iwakuma had shoulder issues last season that limited him to just 90 innings, but he also once went 21-4 with a 1.87 ERA. Could be a late round gem.
<b>Julio Teheran, ATL</b> - blew away AAA batters in his 1st season there (15-3, 2.55 ERA at Gwinnett), and with Atlanta’s unstable rotation, he may find himself there soon enough.
<b>Ryan Lavarnway, BOS</b> -- is a big-time power prospect who belted 32 HRs in 2011 at AA and AAA (he hit 18 HRs in just 227 AAA at-bats in his 1st stint there), and could potentially make the Sox out of spring training and split catching duties with Saltalamacchia (would they set the record for most letters in their last name by two catching teammates?). I’ll take a chance on him.
<b>Devin Mesoraco, CIN</b> -- Dusty Baker doesn’t want to declare that Mesoraco is his starting catcher, but he may very well be soon. Didn’t fare well in a 50 at bat stint in Cincy last year, but if he catches up to major league pitching, he could become a solid fantasy option who can be had cheaply.
It’s very tough to predict a breakout otherwise, unless you hit the jackpot. And even the most unwitting fantasy players land these guys every year because, quite frankly, someone has to, and it typically isn’t due to any real factual analysis. Did the guy in your league with Asdrubal Cabrera really know he was going to have a huge year? Probably not. As such, many breakouts are very hard to predict, because the past stats don’t indicate a major breakout or performance spike is on the horizon.
But it’s far easier to simply identify a player who will get much more playing time than he did last season or has been moved to a higher profile role, and then it will appear as if he broke out – simply because he put up better stats due to more at-bats or more important innings. And then you look like a genius. And that’s what this is all about, no?
Last year, we struck fantasy gold with Daniel Hudson, Desmond Jennings, Chris Sale, Ivan Nova, JP Arencibia, Freddie Freeman, Alexi Ogando, Russell Martin, Dillon Gee, Alex Gordon, Cameron Maybin, Matt Joyce, JJ Hardy, Daniel Murphy, Brandon League and Joel Hanrahan among those who weren’t considered “no-brainer” breakouts.
In 2010 we uncovered Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez, Casey McGehee, Wil Venable, Clay Buchholz, Wade Davis, Phil Hughes, Kelly Johnson, Juan Pierre, Ian Kennedy, Brett Myers, Daric Barton, Geovanny Soto, Brandon Morrow, Johnny Gomes, Colby Lewis, Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Billy Wagner, Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, Josh Hamilton & Ian Desmond.
In 2009 we found breakouts and performance spikes from Brett Gardner, Max Scherzer, Justin Upton, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Alberto Callaspo, Denard Span, Russell Branyan, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, Nyjer Morgan, Aaron Hill, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson and Josh Willingham.
In ‘08 we hit paydirt with Mark Reynolds, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Lastings Milledge, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Quentin, Willy Taveras, Justin Duchscherer, Jair Jurrjens, Edinson Volquez, Jon Lester, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Andrew Sonnanstine and Matt Garza.
And finally in 2007 we hit with Chris Duncan, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kelly Johnson, Shane Victorino, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy and Ian Kinsler, among others.
At the very least, these players represented a greater value than you likely paid for them.
So below is a list, some of whom are complete no-brainers, of players who will receive much more playing time than they did in 2011. The qualifications are the player had to have less than 375 ABs in 2011 to qualify, and pitchers should have had 110 IP or less, or are transitioning into different roles.
So without further ado, here is the list for 2K12:
<b><u>UP AND COMERS</u></b>
<b>Paul Goldschmidt, ARZ</b> -- Goldy crushed minor league pitching (.317 BA, 83 HRs in 315 games) and showed enough pop at the major league level to become Arizona’s everyday 1B in ’12. He also has a great batting eye, so he’ll hold more value in OBP leagues. He’s never failed at any level before which likely buys him a longer leash. He’s easily a solid gamble as a CI in most leagues.
<b>Dee Gordon, LA</b> -- Flash Gordon was paunchy and a pitcher, and his son Dee is the speedster….but he doesn’t inherit the nickname? Say what? Gordo hit .304 with a remarkable 24 SBs in 223 major league at-bats, and he once had a 73 SB year in the minors. Considering other speedy shortstops like Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Elvis Andrus are top 50 picks, with an ADP of 145, Gordon is a major value. Of course, the risk is he doesn’t hit and gets sent down, but that’s the chance you take for the possibility of the next Michael Bourn with MI eligibility.
<b>Brett Lawrie, TOR</b> -- what needs to be said about this guy? The rub on him is his ‘tude, but if he continues to hit like he did in his Toronto debut, who cares? You’re not his manager or his BFF. He’s already being drafted like a stud with an ADP of 55 and being drafted over the likes of ARod, Aramis and Sandoval. By season’s end, he could end up as the #1 ranked 3B, so perhaps it’s a small price to pay.
<b>Desmond Jennings, TB</B> -- like Lawrie, Jennings is already being drafted at a stud’s price (ADP: 56), so he really has to live up to his end of the bargain considering he’s being taken over the likes of Michael Bourn, Alex Gordon, Adam Jones and BJ Upton, which really puts it into perspective. Still, it’s hard to argue with 10 HRs and 24 SBs in just 247 ABs (and tossed in 31 BBs, too), stats that are making fantasy players woozy with his 20-50 potential. He could be a fantasy stud if he swims, but if he sinks, it may be your team swimming with the fishies. Considering his price tag, there’s a huge amount of risk involved, but the rewards could be great.
<b>Dustin Ackley, SEA</b> -- Ackley seemed destined for greatness since being drafted 2nd overall in the ’10 amateur draft, and held his own in his 330 at-bat stint in Seattle. Obviously, being a member of the M’s curbs his stat potential, but if things start to break their way, Ackley can be a good 5-category bat. He’s being drafted as such, as his ADP of 137 attests (over Espinosa & Walker). I’d like to roster him, but his price tag seems high for perhaps a 15-15 type.
<b>Jose Altuve, HOU</b> -- has a good mix of power and speed (or at least he did in the minors), and is slated to take over the Astros second sacker job. A career .327 hitter in the minors, Altuve hit .276 in 221 ABs last season. You could do worse with a late-round flyer.
<b>JD Martinez, HOU</b> -- an unheralded 20th round pick in the ’09 amateur draft, Martinez has done nothing but obliterate minor league pitching. The Astros gave him a chance last year and he held his own in 208 major league at-bats, hitting both righties and lefties equally well. Unless he slumps badly, expect Martinez to hold the job all season and be a solid OF starter in deep leagues.
<b>Alex Presley, PIT</b> -- Hit .298 in 215 major league at-bats with good power and speed, and the Bucs say the job’s his to lose. He hasn’t hit LHPs well in his major league career to date, so perhaps he’ll get platooned, but Presley is a good late round flyer in deep leagues who can get double digit steals and HRs.
<b>Henderson Alvarez, TOR</b> -- The 21-year old exhibited great control in his major league debut, walking just 8 batters in 64 innings. That’s not surprising since he’s hardly walked anyone in his entire pro career, with just a miniscule 1.7 BB/9 to his credit. While he does give up his share of hits, if he can keep the ball in the park (he gave up 8 HRs in his major league stint, too), he could be a sneaky late round flyer.
<b>Jason Kipnis, CLE</b> -- I became a fan when I saw him play for Columbus last summer, and he looked like he was head and shoulders above anyone else on the field that day. Has good pop and emerging speed for a 2B, and it showed in his 135 AB debut. The second bagger spot is quickly becoming loaded with up and comers and solid older players, but as the 14th rated 2B by ADP, he seems worthy of his price tag.
<b>Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE</b>-- he obviously didn’t wow fantasy players in his MLB debut (.255, 8 HRs in 212 at bats) as he’s running with an ADP in the 250s. He’s a career .272 batter in the minors, which makes him a BA risk; and he has no speed and only so-so pop. He does show a good nose for driving in and scoring runs, and this Indian team is an emerging unit. I’d take a chance.
<b>Kyle Seager, SEA</b> -- the 24-year old beat up minor league pitchers the last two seasons at three stops between A and AAA, but he rolled craps in his 182 at bat major league debut (.258, 1 HR), and fantasy leagues have punished him for that with an undrafted rank to date. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik would like to have Seager win the job and Chone Figgins become a super-utility type, but Seager will have to prove that his bat has made the transition. He could become a solid early season FAAB investment if he wins the job.
<b>Trayvon Robinson, SEA</b> -- as a Dodger fan, I wasn’t pleased to see Robinson dealt to Seattle for a bucket of baseballs, even if he had been in the Dodger system since ’05. But just as he began to emerge as a good power/speed type who can actually hit, he gets traded for other minor leaguers. Robinson may be ticketed for AAA or a bench role with the M’s, but if he wins a starting job he could become a sneaky source of speed (he does get caught a lot, however) for a cheap price.
<b>Blake Beavan, SEA</b> -- acquired in the Cliff Lee deal, the Beav performed admirably in almost 100 major league innings last season: 4.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, but just a miniscule 3.9 K/9 to go along with that. It’s that itsy-bitsy K rate that has fantasy leaguers turned off, and he’s likely never going to be a good source of Ks. But his pinpoint control should result in low WHIPs, and who knows – maybe he’s this year’s Josh Tomlin?
<b>Mike Moustakas, KC</b> -- just like Anthony Rizzo, Moustakas pissed in fantasy leaguer’s Cheerios last year with his .263/5/30 line in 340 at-bats – decidedly NOT what most were thinking when they drafted him, considering his monster 2010 at AA ball: .322/26/124 in 118 games. So which Moustakas shows up on your team after you draft him? That’s the million dollar question, but since 3B is a weak group, he could provide huge value in the later rounds.
<b>Eric Thames, TOR</b> -- he’s not guaranteed to get playing time in Toronto’s crowded outfield, but he’s got enough power to gain an expanded role – especially if Travis Snider craps the bed again. He’s definitely worth a late round flyer.
<b>Trevor Plouffe, MIN</b> -- he was an unexciting minor leaguer with four seasons at AAA, but finally last season something clicked and he began pounding the ball, hitting 15 HRs and putting up an OPS of over 1.000. The Plouffe then continued his power surge in the majors, stroking another 8 HRs. While he doesn’t have a starting job now, keep in mind the Twins are starting Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit – not exactly the picture of durability.
<b>Johnny Giavotella, KC</b> -- he hit well in the minors (.322 and .338 his last two seasons), has decent speed and a good batting eye (which he didn’t exhibit in KC), so he fits in well with the Royals’ youth movement. He could be a solid value as a late round draft pick.
<b>Salvador Perez, KC</b> -- the 21-year old impressed with a .336 BA in 183 at bats in 2011 (but that may have been due to a .362 BABIP), and he’s very good defensively. Obviously the Royals think he’ll be a long-term starter for them behind the dish, as they just locked him up for the next five years. What else he may give you, I don’t know.
<b>Tyler Flowers, CWS</b> -- hits well, but is sub-par defensively, and it’s that which could be his undoing. He may sit behind Pierzynski, so he’s likely to go undrafted in most mixed leagues. He could still provide decent value if he gets 300+ ABs in ’12, so watch him on the waiver wire.
<b>Ruben Tejada, NYM</b> --he hit better and got on-base more in his 365 at bats last year with the Mets more than he ever did in the minors, so perhaps he’s growing as a batter. But he doesn’t have any power and has only marginal speed, but he’s a virtual lock for 550 ABs, which could mean 70 Runs. So at least he’s got that going for him, which is nice.
<b>Jimmy Paredes, HOU</b> -- he doesn’t have a lot of power for a third baseman, but he does have wheels – he stole 50 bags in A-ball in 2010. He’ll have to overcome his high K% to stick in the majors, but what does Houston have to lose? He’ll likely go undrafted in most leagues and could be a sneaky source of steals.
<b><u>PAID THEIR DUES</B></U>
<b>John Mayberry, Jr., PHI</b> -- The Phils waited patiently for Mayberry to show major league ability, and he finally rewarded them in ’11 with 15 HRs and 8 SBs in just 267 at-bats. With Ryan Howard’s Achilles injury, Mayberry is likely to open the year as his replacement and could stick as a full-timer in LF after his return. His big drawback is that he’s a career .258 hitter in the minors, so using that as a baseline, he probably has a low margin of error.
<b>Allen Craig, STL</b> -- the post-season hero hit .315 with 11 HRs in just 215 ABs, so he’s become the savvy fantasy player’s breakout hope. Plus, he’s a career .310 hitter in the minors with good power, so those stats aren’t a fluke. Finding playing time could be tough though, especially if his 2B defense does not improve. He had knee surgery in November and may not be ready for opening day, but that may just make his price tag cheaper. Buy him on sale, and draft him and stash him.
<b>AJ Ellis, LA</b> -- the 30-year old is not a sexy pick by any stretch, but he’s a huge OBP threat as he has a career .360 OBP in the majors and over .400 in the minors. He may not do much else, but man, he sure knows how to take a walk!
<b>Lorenzo Cain, KC</b> -- the Royals cleared a spot for Cain after selling high on Melky Cabrera, and now they have to hope he can come close to duplicating the Melk Man’s surprising feats. Cain had a boffo year at AAA, hitting .312 with 16 HRs and 16 SBs, but after toiling for seven years in the minors, his burgeoning power/speed combo can likely be had at a bargain basement price.
<b>Brandon Allen, OAK</b> -- the well-traveled Allen just can’t catch a break, with the A’s piling up on 1B/OF types this off-season, throwing his playing status into question. He has good power, but his hitting ability so far has not translated to the majors. Is he an AAAA player? If he finally gets the time and plays well, he could potentially give you a solid .260/20/75 return on a small investment.
<b>Mike Carp, SEA</b> -- the 25-year old finally got a chance after eight minor league seasons, and he played well, hitting .276 with 12 HRs in 290 at bats. But he also plays for the Mariners, and we all know what that means. He could post a solid 20/75 season at a very low cost, so the risk/reward is high.
<b>Ross Detwiler, WAS</B> -- the 6’5” righty was a late-season solid play, rolling off a 4-5 record with a 3.21 ERA in 9 starts. If the Nats are successful in dishing off John Lannan, Detwiler should step into the #5 spot in the rotation and could provide solid value.
<b>Lucas Duda, NYM</b> - the Duda abides! The 26-year old provided a spark for the Mets in ’11, hitting .292 with 10 HRs and 50 RBIs in 301 ABs. Duda was a solid minor league hitter with good power and has RF all to himself, so Duda should be a solid 4th fantasy OFer at a very low cost.
<b>Jerome Williams, LAA</b> -- the blast from the past literally came out of nowhere in ’11, after not appearing in the majors since 2007 and not being remotely successful there since 2005. But he went 4-0 with decent stats, and appears in line to land the #5 spot on a powerful Angels team. Can the 30-year old hold the job and pitch competently? That remains to be seen, but he’s got a chance.
<b>Mike Napoli, TEX</b> -- Big Nap had his best season in ’11, batting .320 with 30 HRs, 70 Runs and 75 RBIs, yet somehow did all that damage in just 369 ABs. In six major league seasons, Napoli has just one season of greater than 450 ABs, but after a monster post-season where he emerged a Texas folk hero along the lines of Daniel Boone, you can be assured Napoli’s plate appearances will increase dramatically. Even if his BA comes down to .270, he’s a sneaky threat for 100 runs and RBIs and 35 HRs. There aren’t too many catchers who can do that nowadays!
<b>Nick Hundley, SD</b> -- the 28-year old had a .362 BABIP fueled year, which helped him post a .288 BA with 9 HRs in 285 ABs. Even with top prospect Yasmani Grandal on the immediate horizon, Hundley should garner enough plate appearances to be a low end, cheap, startable catcher, and can be a good value in 2-catcher leagues.
<b>Jason Bourgeois, HOU</b> -- after 11 seasons in the minors, the 29-year old finally got significant time in the majors and was electrifying until being derailed by hammy problems. The “fantasy dynamo” hit .294 and stole a remarkable 31 bases in just 238 at-bats. The rebuilding ‘Stros may not have room for a 30-year old journeyman who can’t seem to hit righties, but if Plan A falls apart, he’s Plan B.
<b>Brian Bogusevic, HOU</b> -- Bogusevic is another of Houston’s speedy outfielders, and he has a knack for not getting caught: he had a 74-to-8 SB/CS ratio in the minors. He doesn’t have a ton of power, especially for a RFer, and at age 28 he’s past his peak already, but he could provide some value in ’12.
<b>Bryan LaHair, CHC</b> -- LaHair had a monster year at AAA in ’11: .331, 38 HRs, 109 RBIs, and the Cubs are saying he’s the guy, but they did just trade for top prospect Anthony Rizzo, so one would have to imagine the leash is short. Is he a quadruple-A type, or can his skills translate? Either he’ll be a nice pickup or he’ll be on waiver wires by the end of May.
<b>Chris Heisey, CIN</b> -- another of Cincy’s talented young hitters, Heisey had a power outburst in ’11: 18 HRs in just 279 at bats. And just as it seemed Heisey would be the full-time guy, the Reds signed re-tread Ryan Ludwick to take his starting job, apparently believing Heisey’s problems against lefties are real. If Heisey gets the better side of the platoon, he’s still worth rostering. I’d take a chance.
<b>Wilson Betemit, BAL</b> -- between Chris Davis’ hitting inconsistencies and an open DH spot, Betemit may finally be in line for full-time at-bats. Does that mean anyone should care? He does have good pop and can drive in runs, so if given 450 at bats, he could be good for 20 HRs and 60+ RBIs.
<b>Alejandro de Aza, CWS</b> -- kicked ass in a 150 at-bat trial in ’11 (.329, .920 OPS, 12 SBs), de Aza is the early favorite to start in CF for the White Sox. He has a tendency to get caught stealing a lot (170/70 SB/CS rate in the minors), but if he hits .300+ again, I’m sure the ChiSox will forgive him. He can definitely be a late round steal in many leagues.
<b>DIFF’RENT STROKES</B>
<B>Rafael Betancourt, COL</b> -- could also be listed in the “Paid Their Dues” section, Betancourt finally becomes a full-time closer at the age of 37 and heading into his 10th season. Betancourt has been lights out since joining Colorado, with a WHIP around 0.88 in his 2 ˝ years there. He does have a bit of a “Matt Thornton-syndrome” to him, but I’d feel comfortable despite never having had the job before.
<b>Brett Myers</b> -- Myers was named the Astros closer, and while that pokes a huge hole in their staff, his value just rocketed skyward.
<b>Jim Johnson, BAL</b> -- was anointed the guy in September after someone finally realized Kevin Gregg sucks, and Johnson responded with 7 consecutive saves. He’s not your typical closer in that he doesn’t really strike anyone out, and as such, he should be very cheap in fantasy drafts.
<b>Oakland Closing Mess</b> -- it’s hard to say who emerges victorious in Oakland, and it remains to be seen if the A’s can win & score enough to make any closer actually relevant. The early money appears to be going on Grant Balfour, but it would not be surprising to see re-tread Brian Fuentes get opps either.
<b>Matt Thornton/Addison Reed, CWS</b> - another messy situation, fantasy players are very reluctant to anoint Thornton the guy after burning so many last season. Plus, he has that whole lefty thing going on. On the other hand (literally), Addison Reed rocketed up the minors, devastating hitters with a 1.41 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 12.9 K rate, which he then mimicked in the majors. My money’s on Reed.
<B>Chris Sale, CWS</b> - Sale replaces the departed Mark Buehrle in the ChiSox’ deep starting rotation. He was a starter in college but became a reliever in the pros, and has since dominated batters with a 2.58 career ERA in the majors & minors combined. His K% is strong at 10.0/9, and his K/BB ratio is a solid 3.00. My money’s on him being very solid.
<b>Aroldis Chapman, CIN</b> -- Chapman is preparing to start, but the Reds have too many starters and not enough spots. They need to boot Bronson Arroyo out to make room, but it’s doubtful some team would want to take on his contract. The Cuban Missile also would need to dramatically cut down on his walks -- which was a bloated 7.4 per 9 innings last season -- to successfully transition to starterdom. I wouldn’t pay too high a price for him, as those walks will blow his WHIP up enough to negate his high K%.
<b>Daniel Bard, BOS</b> -- one of five above-average bullpenners transitioning to the rotation, Bard comes off a very solid 3-year stint as Jonathan Papelbon’s setup man. He’s very stingy with the hits, but he enjoys giving out a free pass or two or three (career average: 3.5 per 9). Like Chapman, if he can keep the walks down, he could become a very successful starter.
<b>Aaron Crow, KC</b> - -Crow had a solid rookie year in ’11 and the Royals have decided he’s better suited for the rotation. Like the others making the move to starting, he’s going to have to cut down on the walks to succeed: he averaged 4.5 free passes per 9 last season. He was a starter in the minors and the results weren’t pretty – 5.26 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 32 starts – but he was a top prospect, so perhaps he straightens it out. I think I’d make sure he does that first before dropping him into your rotation. Maybe he’ll make me eat crow.
<b>Neftali Feliz</b> -- the Texas rotation is deep, but the Rangers signed Joe Nathan to take Feliz’ closing job, so there’s no question he’s locked into a starting spot. Unlike Crow, Feliz started and dominated in the minors, so the questions about “if he could do it” should be erased. Feliz could be a sleeper All-Star starting pitcher.
<b>BLOOM’S OFF THE ROSE</B>
<b>Mike Minor, ATL</b> -- seemingly solidified a job in the rotation, Minor still has an ADP of just 236 after being nothing more than mediocre in 123 MLB innings. He recently mouthed off about requesting a trade if he did not get a major league job, so someone needs to tell him to keep his trap shut. Solid Atlanta starters grow on trees, so I’d bet on Minor’s success in 2K12.
<b>Mat Gamel, MLW</b> -- a few years after being considered a top prospect (#34 by Baseball America in pre-2009), this is likely Gamel’s last shot to attain a starting job in the majors. And that comes with no pressure, having just been declared Prince Fielder’s successor at 1B (sarcasm alert!). The soon-to-be 27 year old has a paltry .222 career BA in 171 major league ABs, and he has not exhibited any of his minor league batting skills. Still, he stands a good chance of going undrafted in thin leagues, and so he is a solid risk/reward player.
<b>Nolan Reimold</b> -- despite having a huge September (5 HRs & 6 SBs), Reimold’s still flying under the radar, going undrafted in a great majority of leagues. Fangraph’s projectors have him with a .265/17/55 average, and that seems like a low entry point.
<b>David Freese, STL</b> -- he was probably only known by Cardinal fans and fantasy leaguers prior to his post-season heroics, but you don’t just dominate a post-season like Freese did and then fall on your face. And while everyone knows Freese can hit, he was more well-known for his injuries than anything else before the World Series. If he can stay healthy, he can rise to the top of a weak 3B class, but if the injury bug hits again, he’s just as likely to fade back into oblivion.
<b>Travis Snider, TOR</b> -- Snider was rated as high as #6 by Baseball America (pre-’09), but had a miserable ’11 campaign that saw him demoted to AAA for such a long stretch that many fantasy leaguers wanted to forget they ever drafted him. With an ADP in the mid-400s now, he can be had for a song, but Toronto’s OF is super-deep and it’ll be a “what have you done for me lately” thing. But he does have the tools to finally stick.
<b>Brett Wallace, HOU</b> -- the formerly highly-regarded (but oft-traded) prospect may not even have a spot in Houston, but he is being moved back to 3B which may give him some value. The only thing Wallace did well last season was strike out, so this may be his last chance for a while.
<b>Jordan Schafer, HOU</b> -- Schafer was once the most highly thought of prospect in the deep Atlanta system, but fell flat on his face in a 167 at-bat tryout in 2009 (as well as a miserable 2010 in the minors), and was exiled to Houston last season. He may not hit enough to make much of an impact, but stranger things have happened.
<b>Pedro Alvarez, PIT</b> -- I wrote in this space last year that “30 HRs are already baked into his value” since he was going at such as high cost in drafts. Lo and behold, Alvarez hit a paltry .208 with just 2 HRs before being demoted – where he didn’t hit well either – and then returned for an untriumphant 2nd half of more pathetic-ness. He could now be had for a fraction of his 2011 price tag, but which Alvarez shows up?
<b>Jerry Sands, LA</b> -- a hot waiver wire pickup in mid-April after his recall, Sands didn’t show any of his minor league skills in his 200 at-bats, hitting just .253 with 4 HRs, and was demoted two months later for most of the season. As such, his bandwagon is noticeably lighter – but note that he didn’t let it get to him, and crushed AAA pitching again to the tune of a .931 OPS and 29 HRs. He has nothing more to prove at AAA, that’s for sure.
<b>Eric Young, Jr., COL</b> -- after almost being dealt to purgatory -- the NY Mets -- in January after his third straight .240ish season, Young still doesn’t have a role in Colorado and may be turned into a super-utility. Regardless, his speed (27 SBs last season) can help any fantasy team.
<b>Brandon Belt, SF</b> -- Belt was a hot commodity in early April, but the Baby Giraffe didn’t do much with the stick and was soon sent back to AAA for more seasoning. His batting eye and power are for real, so if he finally figures it out in the majors, you can expect big things.
<b>ON THE ROAD AGAIN</B>
<b>Chris Davis, BAL</b> -- Davis was solid, if unspectacular, in 2011 after his absolutely miserable 2010 campaign. He again crushed minor league pitching to the tune of a .368 BA with 24 HRs in just 48 games, but after being traded to Baltimore, didn’t do much again. Is it just a matter of time for Davis, or will he become the newest member of the AAAA club?
<b>Ian Stewart, CHC</b> -- Stewart spent five years on Baseball America’s top prospect lists, but when it came time for graduation, he wasn’t nearly the player he was in the minors (.236 career BA, and a ghastly 21 OPS+ in 2011). Traded for another failed top prospect (Tyler Colvin), Stewart will look to regain his touch in Wrigley. If you can stand the low BA potential, he could be a cheap source of power.
<b>Travis Wood, CHC</b> -- a solid starter moving intra-division, he was one of Theo’s first acquisitions as Cubs’ GM. He was dominant in the minors, so maybe he repays Theo for the rotation spot with a glimpse of his salad days. He’s cheeep, too!
<b>Josh Reddick, OAK</b> -- did surprisingly well in Boston, but was sent packing as the centerpiece of the Andrew Bailey deal. Oakland loaded up on outfielders, but Reddick should be able to emerge above the fray. Was a minor league stud for a couple of years, so if he re-finds that greatness, he could be a huge value. But that’s a big if.
<b>Jason Kubel, ARZ</b> -- was having a marginal year when a sprained foot ended it, and he’s since moved on to Arizona. Here he’ll take the place of Gerardo Parra, who while inept with the stick, was a Gold Glover in leftfield. And no one confuses Kubel with anything close to a Gold Glove fielder. Last I checked, the NL doesn’t have the DH, so……if Kubel doesn’t hit well, and he’s a poor defender, what’s he going to do? Bid cautiously here.
<b>Andres Torres, NYM</b> -- Torres came out of nowhere in 2010 and had a boffo year (.268, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 26 SB) before crawled back under the rock he emerged from. After being traded for fellow surprising journeyman Angel Pagan, Torres will hope to re-find the magic in CitiField at the age of 34. The good news is that he’s essentially locked in as the CF/leadoff hitter with virtually nothing on the horizon. So at least he has that going for him, which is nice. Bill Murray must be a Mets fan.
<b>Chris Iannetta, LAA</b> -- the Angels look to make up for the egregious error of trading Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells by bringing in a Napoli clone – a good power, high OBP catcher with questionable catching ability. Still, Angel fans are calling the importing of Iannetta “The December Miracle,” as they can finally write off the Jeff (.194 BA) Mathis era. Manager Mike Scioscia loves catchers like himself – good defenders, crappy hitters – but with new sheriff Jerry DiPoto in town, those days are over, and Iannetta has what Napoli never had: the place to himself. A great value for ’12.
<b>Edinson Volquez, SD</b> -- A power pitcher in San Diego? What’s not to love? Except for the fact he can’t stay healthy. But if he can, he can be a huge bargain.
<b>Kevin Slowey, CLE</b> -- he didn’t even have time to find the local grocery in Denver when he was dealt to Cleveland to replace Fausto Heredia Roberto Carmona Hernandez. Slowey’s an extreme control pitcher who had an epic meltdown in 2011: 0-8, 6.67 ERA before Minny mercifully pulled the plug. With a career K/BB ratio of 4.70, many would give him a pass on 2K11 and take a shot. I’m in that boat.
<b>Anthony Rizzo, CHC</b> -- a top prospect who had a completely inept rookie campaign (.141 BA, .241 SLG), yet decimated AAA pitchers with a .331 BA and 26 HRs. Chicago says they’re going with Bryan LaHair, but he has a very short leash.
<b>Marco Scutaro, COL</b> -- the 36-year old gets a new lease on life with his move to Colorado, where he’ll take over the 2B job. Just two years ago he hit .287 with 100 Runs, 12 HRs, 60 RBIs and 14 SBs – and now he’s in Coors. Could big a nice sleeper.
<b>Manny Ramirez, OAK</b> -- Mannywood moves up the Pacific Coast Highway to Oakland, after briefly making a pit stop in Tampa and retirement. But he’s suspended for the season’s first 50 games, so we’ll see Manny in June. If he can still hit, why not?
<b>THE HURT LOCKER</B>
<b>Adam LaRoche, WAS</b> - was routinely money until getting hurt in ’11, and now he may not have a job. Obviously has more risk associated with him than he has in recent years, but that will only make him cheaper.
<b>Ike Davis, NYM</b> -- was beginning to emerge as an elite 1B option when a seemingly minor ankle injury in June KO’d him for the rest of the season (thanks Met doctors!). If healthy, he should continue his upward climb.
<b>Johan Santana, NYM</b> -- the ominous words are starting to come out: “we’re not counting on him,” and “anything over 125 IP is gravy.” Combine shoulder injury with his lower strikeout rate in recent years, and you may have all you need to not spend a high pick or dollars on him.
<b>Adam Wainwright, STL</b> -- missed the entire 2011 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on 2/24/11. Will he be 100% healthy after coming back just 13 months later? Probably won’t be his Cy Young caliber self until next season. And pay for 150 innings.
<b>Kyle Blanks, SD</b> -- the oft-injured Blanks got squeezed with the addition of uber-prospect Yonder Alonso, so if Blanks plays, it will be at the expense of a corner outfielder not named Carlos Quentin.
<b>Buster Posey, SF</b> - - suffered a gruesome ankle injury in May, and it showed just how exposed catchers really are. He was being drafted as the 2nd or 3rd ranked catcher in 2011, but his injury (and relative ineffectiveness prior to it) has dropped his value dramatically. Can he rebound and continue his upward trajectory?
<b>Phil Hughes, NYY</b> -- badly burned fantasy owners with a meltdown of epic proportions in the season’s first-half, as his fastball was missing the “fast” part and he got lit up like a Christmas tree. He rebounded somewhat in the second half, but was nowhere near the 2010 version and the damage was done. The Yanks cleared a spot for him with the AJ Burnett trade, but his former supporters are naturally gun shy.
<b>Stephen Strasburg, WAS</b> -- came back from TJ surgery with a September cup o’coffee and continued his dominating ways. Fantasy leaguers are salivating at the prospects of Strasburg’s first full season, but the Nats said they will cap his innings at 160 like they did with Jordan Zimmermann. He may have Top 5 pitcher potential, but 160 IP is 2/3rds the total of Verlander.
<b>Grady Sizemore, CLE</b> -- Sizemore is like Ben Affleck – it’s hard to believe he was once a top option, and now anything decent you get out of him is a pure bonus. Injuries have taken their toll on the former perennial AL MVP candidate, as he hasn’t hit above .250 since 2009 and has only 4 SBs the last two seasons, including NONE in 295 PAs last year. He did hit 10 HRs last season, so the power is still there, but the speed appears drained. He had knee surgery in October, and is already on the shelf, so what can or should anyone expect in ’12? Probably more of the same. But hey, Affleck recently had a hit with The Town, so anything’s possible…..
<b>Kendrys Morales, LAA</b> -- burned many an owner with his expectation of a May return, only to miss the entire year. The Angels promptly signed Albert Pujols to man his position, and with 2011 replacement Mark Trumbo having done very well, there’s suddenly a playing time squeeze. He could end up with anywhere from 350-500 at bats, so draft accordingly.
<b>Daniel Murphy, NYM</b> -- another of the Mets walking wounded, Murphy was actually leading the NL in batting when he blew his knee out. And this after he missed the entire 2010 season, so he can squarely be found on the “injury prone” rack. But he’s a career .290 batter, and with 2B eligibility, he makes for a sneaky potential top-tier play.
<b>Alex Rodriguez, NYY</b> -- injuries and age are starting to take their toll on the perennial Top 3 fantasy pick, as he hasn’t played in more than 140 games since 2007 and had a career-low 373 ABs last season. He hasn’t hit higher than .286 since ’08, his stolen base days appear to be over, and his SLG% is on a dramatic 5-year schneid. At age 37, can we expect his former greatness? In a middling 3B category, he’s still worthy of a high pick, but don’t expect the A-Rod of old.
<b>Shin-Soo Choo, CLE</b> -- it was a disastrous year for Choo, as the possibility of being drafted into the South Korean army and then a freak injury cost him almost half the season. And when he did play, he was far from the .300/.400 20/20 playmaker fantasy owners grew to love. With his fears of fighting the North Koreans at an end, expect Choo to rebound nicely.
<b>Joe Mauer, MIN</b> -- the Twins were up against a barrel when they handed hometown homey Joe Mauer one of the largest contracts in baseball history, and he re-paid them by having the worst season of his career as he fought off various maladies. We all know Mauer can hit (career .323 BA) – but is it a high, yet empty BA? There isn’t anyone who expects Mauer to come close to his career-high 28 HRs, but is 15 even feasible any longer? If he’s able to hit .310/15/75, does that make Mauer worthy of consideration atop the catcher rankings? Why am I asking so many questions? He’s an excellent gamble, but don’t overpay.
<b>Denard Span, MIN</b> -- the poor Twins were ravaged by injuries and underperformance in ’11, and it cost GM Bill Smith his job. Span had three solid years as the Twins starting CFer before a disastrous 2011: career lows in BA & OBP, and was suffering through a huge power and speed outage (just 6 SBs in 311 plate appearances), before concussions ended his year. Span needs to rebound, as youngsters are on the horizon, and while he says he’s over his concussion, we’ve all seen how easy they are to return. A huge question mark in ’12.
<b>Justin Morneau, MIN</b> -- speaking of concussions, no career has been more decimated by them recently than Morneau’s. He’s missed almost 175 games the last two seasons, and dropped from an elite 1B to afterthought. You can’t count on Morneau for more than 75 games, so pay for that and consider anything above that as gravy.
<b>Hanley Ramirez, MIA</b> -- did any one player kill fantasy teams more than Han-Ram? The consensus top 3 pick was a fantasy Hindenburg, hitting just .243 in 338 ABs before his season ended for good on August 2nd. And now, with Jose Reyes stealing his coveted shortstop job, he’s been moody and pugnacious about moving to 3B. So does Hanley still deserve 1st or 2nd round fantasy consideration? The good news is that he was on pace for similar career average totals in Runs, RBIs, HRs and SBs, so it was only his average that went over the cliff. He’s still risky as a Top 25 pick, but if healthy, he should be able to rebound.
<b>Stephen Drew, ARZ</b> -- a fractured ankle sunk Drew’s season after 86 games, which was too bad as Drew was on pace to obliterate his season RBI high (he had 45, and his seasonal high was 67). He’s kind of streaky, as his power and BA have fluctuated wildly, but if healthy, he should be able to put up a .270/15/65 line.
<b>Ryan Doumit, MIN</b> -- just what the Twins need, another injury prone player (sarcasm alert!). Doumit’s never played in more than 125 games in a season, and in seven big-league years, has just two 100+ game seasons. ‘nuff said. Buuuuut…..he did hit .303 last year, and if he DHs often, maybe he’ll stay healthy for a change. There are worse end-game sleepers to choose.
<b>Josh Johnson, MIA</b> -- was on his way to the NL Cy Young award when he broke down with arm troubles after just 9 starts. He’s already pitched in spring training and said he feels OK, but that doesn’t mean much over the course of a 162 game season (of which, Johnson has completed just once in his 7-year career). A huge gamble that can be worth the risk, just don’t make him your ace.
<b>Brian Roberts, BAL</b> -- what to make of Brian Roberts? In recent interviews you can read between the lines and think his career’s over, which would be a shame since he can still play. He’s about as risky as they come – you may not get a single at-bat out of him – but the payoff could be big since many fantasy owners are avoiding him like the plague.
<b>Kris Medlen, ATL</b> -- had a breakout season in ’10 before blowing out his elbow, and his name is rarely mentioned when discussing the Braves rotation. But injury woes and immaturity among their pitchers could lead to a re-birth of Medlen in the rotation. He’s worth a late round flyer or a $1 bid.
<b>Luke Scott, TB</b> -- Scott resurfaces in TB and takes over the DH role. Unexciting, except when he’s making ill-advised comments about the President, he was remarkably consistent: 23-27 HRs, 70ish RBIs and 60ish Runs for three consecutive years until he crapped the bed last season with a .220 BA and just 9 HRs. Will the old Scott resurface? He could be a solid mixed league utility player who can be had cheap.
<B>THE STUD ROOKIES</B>
<b>Bryce Harper, WAS</b> -- one of many acclaimed rookies who could play big roles for their teams in ’12, the power prodigy has the backing of manager Davey Johnson, and if he has a solid camp, could walk away with the RF job. Is just 19 and has just one year of professional ball under his belt, so be careful not to have too big a mancrush.
<b>Matt Moore, TB</b> -- Matt Moore has pitched all of 9 regular season innings in the majors, yet he’s being drafted over the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Carpenter, as well as former Ray phenom Jeremy Hellickson. The latter may be the best reason to not overpay – Hell Boy was very, very solid, but his K% didn’t translate to the majors, and already fantasy leaguers have frowned upon him. The King is Dead, Long Live the King!
<b>Jesus Montero, SEA</b> -- speaking of being heavily counted on, Montero was acquired for potential ace Michael Pineda, and Seattle is pinning its offensive hopes on the young slugger. Has good power, but can anyone hit HRs at Safeco?
<b>Mike Trout, LAA</b> -- another top prospect many fantasy leaguers are salivating over, Trout is a true 5-tool fantasy threat. In his 123 at bat stint with the Angels last season, he showed the same pop and speed he displayed in the minors. If he wins the LF job in spring training, he’s a certain Rookie of the Year contender, but pay for 350 major league at bats.
<b>Yu Darvish, TEX</b> - the Japanese league sensation heads to Texas and almost instantly becomes the ace of the staff. I’d have to imagine Nolan Ryan knows pitchers when he sees one, so Darvish has a chance to be the stud many think he’ll be. And with an ADP of 122 and the 35th starting pitcher off the board, he could deliver a high ROI.
<b>Yoenis Cespedes, OAK</b> -- another potential stud in a very deep rookie class, Cespedes takes over CF and could pay instant fantasy dividends….or he could find himself in need of more seasoning in the minors. Pay for 350-400 at bats and monitor how he handles major league pitching in spring training.
<b>Yonder Alonso, SD</b> -- the prize of the Mat Latos deal, Alonso instantly usurps Jesus Guzman at 1B. Clubbed major league pitching in a 98 at-bat showcase last season (.330, 5 HRs), and is being heavily counted on to continue that in SD.
<b>THE OTHER ROOKIES</B>
<b>Tyler Pastornicky, ATL</b> -- appears to have Atlanta’s SS job to himself. He has little power but once stole 57 bases in the minors, so he could be a cheap source of speed in deep mixed or NL leagues.
<b>Zack Cozart, CIN</b> -- hard to say what we’re gonna see from Cozart – he showed decent power and had one above-average speed year (30 SBs) in the minors – but he likely has the full-time job at SS in Cincy. Could be a good end gamer.
<b>Jacob Turner, DET</b> -- has a good shot at Detroit’s 5th spot in the rotation if he has a solid spring.
<b>Jarrod Parker, OAK</b> -- he’s been ranked by Baseball America as a Top 50 prospect for four consecutive years, and should finally have a major league job. Didn’t have “blow me away” stats, but Billy Beane seems to be able to pick solid pitching prospects, and that should be enough for a late round flier.
<b>Brad Peacock, OAK</b> -- another of Beane’s rotation overhaul for 2K12, Peacock wasn’t much of a prospect until last season, when he finally mastered his knuckle curve and went 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA at AA-AAA ball (this after three losing, mediocre seasons). He’ll probably go undrafted in all but the deepest leagues, so monitor his progress while he’s available on the waiver wire.
<b>Tom Milone, OAK</b> -- the last of Oakland’s new rookie triumvirate, Milone put up similarly solid numbers as he was promoted through the minors the last three years, and then had a solid cup o’coffee with Washington. If he can keep up his progress, he could be a solid SP5 or SP6 in deep leagues.
<b>Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA</b> -- another Japanese import, Iwakuma should nail down a spot in Seattle’s rotation. Iwakuma had shoulder issues last season that limited him to just 90 innings, but he also once went 21-4 with a 1.87 ERA. Could be a late round gem.
<b>Julio Teheran, ATL</b> - blew away AAA batters in his 1st season there (15-3, 2.55 ERA at Gwinnett), and with Atlanta’s unstable rotation, he may find himself there soon enough.
<b>Ryan Lavarnway, BOS</b> -- is a big-time power prospect who belted 32 HRs in 2011 at AA and AAA (he hit 18 HRs in just 227 AAA at-bats in his 1st stint there), and could potentially make the Sox out of spring training and split catching duties with Saltalamacchia (would they set the record for most letters in their last name by two catching teammates?). I’ll take a chance on him.
<b>Devin Mesoraco, CIN</b> -- Dusty Baker doesn’t want to declare that Mesoraco is his starting catcher, but he may very well be soon. Didn’t fare well in a 50 at bat stint in Cincy last year, but if he catches up to major league pitching, he could become a solid fantasy option who can be had cheaply.
- Wonderboy
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