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Am I the only one who thinks Posey is being a little bit overdrafted?
Aside from concerns about how well his knee will hold up, I am also a little worried about how he seemed to come back to earth a bit in 2011.
Final 2011 stats: 185 PA, .284/.368/.389, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 17 R, 3 SB, 10% walk rate, 16% K Rate, .326 BABIP
His 2010 line is what makes him so attractive as a catcher: .305/.357/.505 with 18 HR in 443 PA. He was more than 100 points off of that SLG in 2011, and I haven't seen much mention of that this year.
His BABIP was actually higher in 2011 when he hit .284 than it was in 2010 when he hit .305 (because he had more Ks and less HRs).
He also stole 3 bases in a very short time in 2011, after not stealing any in 2010, so after a major injury I'm not sure that speed comes back.
It wouldn't shock me to see him hit .280-15-80-70r-3sb in 2012, which wouldn't be a very good return on his ADP as the #3 or #4 catcher (after Napoli, Santana, maybe McCann).
Aside from concerns about how well his knee will hold up, I am also a little worried about how he seemed to come back to earth a bit in 2011.
Final 2011 stats: 185 PA, .284/.368/.389, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 17 R, 3 SB, 10% walk rate, 16% K Rate, .326 BABIP
His 2010 line is what makes him so attractive as a catcher: .305/.357/.505 with 18 HR in 443 PA. He was more than 100 points off of that SLG in 2011, and I haven't seen much mention of that this year.
His BABIP was actually higher in 2011 when he hit .284 than it was in 2010 when he hit .305 (because he had more Ks and less HRs).
He also stole 3 bases in a very short time in 2011, after not stealing any in 2010, so after a major injury I'm not sure that speed comes back.
It wouldn't shock me to see him hit .280-15-80-70r-3sb in 2012, which wouldn't be a very good return on his ADP as the #3 or #4 catcher (after Napoli, Santana, maybe McCann).
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