2k12: Astros Closer

[joncarlos]

Apparently it's Brett Myers (Brad Mills named him this morning)

[Moonlight J]

check out his splits in time thru lineup

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=myersbr01&year=Career&t=p#times

[BigJonEmpire]

Interesting. Seems like it would have been better long term to keep him as a starter and then trade him as the deadline approached.

[joncarlos]

check out his splits in time thru lineup

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...reer&t=p#times

Honestly there isn't much there. AVG/OBP/SLG, 1st/2nd/3rd time through the order:

.248 .317 .419
.260 .319 .439
.276 .335 .448

I think that's probably comparable to most starters. Here's CC Sabathia, workhorse/120 pitch durability machine:

.233 .292 .361
.256 .313 .390
.249 .312 .374

Plus, the Astros have a ton of relievers and not a lot of starters. This move seems strange to me based on their current assets. Wandy, Norris.... Happ, Livan, Lyles? Ugh.

[willthethrill]

Myers was excellent as the Phillies closer a few years ago. He's got a good fastball (or he did back then) and he really let it rip.

[roadtrip68]

What Bigjon said. I guess that Texas heat really does make you crazy.

[Hammer]

I like the move. I think Myers will do very well.

[TopChuckie]

Do you think Mike (KS) had anything to do with this?

I think it will be the best thing for Myers, probably not the best thing for the Astros. He will probably be a more successful pitcher as the closer, but the guy who takes his spot in the rotation will be a far less successful starter than Myers would have been.

ETA: And likewise, someone else probably could have done just as well as the closer. So all in all, it probably works for Myers, but I don't see it as the best use of Houston's resources.

[Erik]

Interesting. Seems like it would have been better long term to keep him as a starter and then trade him as the deadline approached.

Perhaps they think he will have more trade value as a closer.

[The Dane]

I think this is an interesting gamble on their part. Myers has give the tiniest bit of hint that he could regain some of his future success even though he's recently been below-par. However, if moving to the bullpen helps him succeed and he lights them up, he could really be worth something at the trade deadline, much more so than had he had another mediocre season. I have no evidence other than anecdotal, but seems to me that deadline deal pitchers are valued as such:

1) Aces
2) Strong #2s
3) Closers
4) Strong #3s
5) Solid bullpen arms
6) Other pitchers

It seems to me that as a starter, Myers has a value of 6. However, a switch to the bullpen moves him, at least, to a 5 and possibly to a 3 in trade value. That seems like a win to me. He's done it before; it might just work. Also, isn't he a bit of a headcase? Maybe he asked for this, and it'll help him get his mojo back. I don't know, but this seems so crazy that it just might work.

[Erik]

Also, isn't he a bit of a headcase?

Is that what they call wife beaters these days?

[BigJonEmpire]

I think this is an interesting gamble on their part. Myers has give the tiniest bit of hint that he could regain some of his future success even though he's recently been below-par. However, if moving to the bullpen helps him succeed and he lights them up, he could really be worth something at the trade deadline, much more so than had he had another mediocre season. I have no evidence other than anecdotal, but seems to me that deadline deal pitchers are valued as such:

1) Aces
2) Strong #2s
3) Closers
4) Strong #3s
5) Solid bullpen arms
6) Other pitchers

It seems to me that as a starter, Myers has a value of 6. However, a switch to the bullpen moves him, at least, to a 5 and possibly to a 3 in trade value. That seems like a win to me. He's done it before; it might just work. Also, isn't he a bit of a headcase? Maybe he asked for this, and it'll help him get his mojo back. I don't know, but this seems so crazy that it just might work.

In 2010 he was at least a four on your scale and a 2 upside is there. Last year was horrible, but it seemed like a rebound was a pretty reasonable expectation. i think it is easier for him to be a 5 on your scale or even a 3, but the starter version is worth more in a trade.

[bweiser831]

i was really hoping they'd eventually move bud norris into the closer role.

[Erik]

They still could, if Myers is traded in July or August.

[onejayhawk]

How is the experiment going?

J