Projections

[Sam]

Which site do you generally use when looking at projections? Which are the most trusted or most commonly followed? Do you use one, a combo of a few, self-made ones?

I'm sure I'm missing some but here are the ones I can think of: ESPN, Yahoo, Fangraphs, Bill James, ZiPs, Rotochamp, Marcel, BP

Anybody want to throw out a top 5 list of projections to use?

[Moonlight J]

combo projections remove individual bias

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2012/02/18/composite-projections-have-arrived-2/

[Todd Zola]

The best thing to do is take the projections Jason links and prorate to your own playing time expectations.

Well, second best thing to do.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I think there is a lot left to be learned about what makes a good projection. We don't really know how to measure success very well yet.

[Judge Jude]

very important: few if any projections are in real time.
especially with early drafts/auctions, knowing the last-minute pros and cons (who's headed to the DL, who looks like they've just won a job) can help you beat rivals who walk in with 3-day-old projections.

and in keeper auction leagues, my old rule of thumb is: "When the league goes insane, go just a little less insane."

if you walk in with a sane projection sheet, and the bidding gets out of hand, you risk walking out with no overpays - and about $30 left on the table.

be flexible. if everyone else seems to be paying $55 for a stud, and you get one just as good for $50, that may not be a bad play at all - even if your projections don't want you to go above $40.

[Big Tymer]

very important: few if any projections are in real time.

BaseballHQ does keep up to date projections as they are tweaking their numbers throughout spring training based on playing time expectations. Site is costly but anyone buying RotoLab also gets access I believe.

[schlesinj]

BaseballHQ does keep up to date projections as they are tweaking their numbers throughout spring training based on playing time expectations. Site is costly but anyone buying RotoLab also gets access I believe.

I jumped in on Masterball's (thanks Todd) offer for a reduced subscription and his projections have been essentially updated weekly and I would assume as Spring Training goes on he will make adjustments as any injuries/PT issues change.

[Kevin Seitzer]

What I took from JJ's post is that keeping your finger on the pulse of playing time and manager preferences can be a much bigger deal than knowing if Adam Dunn is more likely to hit .220 or .240. And I have found that I do much better in the auction when I've done the ground work to know the lay of the playing-time land and have familiarized myself with people who are likely to be valuable down the road in the season--first guy off the bench, first guy up from Triple-A when a starter gets hurt or gets suckitis--than I do when I am trusting someone else to tell me that, even if they have updated their projections an hour before I walk into the draft room.

[schlesinj]

What I took from JJ's post is that keeping your finger on the pulse of playing time and manager preferences can be a much bigger deal than knowing if Adam Dunn is more likely to hit .220 or .240. And I have found that I do much better in the auction when I've done the ground work to know the lay of the playing-time land and have familiarized myself with people who are likely to be valuable down the road in the season--first guy off the bench, first guy up from Triple-A when a starter gets hurt or gets suckitis--than I do when I am trusting someone else to tell me that, even if they have updated their projections an hour before I walk into the draft room.

IMO, being members of message boards I just assume that we all do this as we spend our time talking about this stuff, we should be ahead of most of our leaguemates.

[Moonlight J]

What I took from JJ's post is that keeping your finger on the pulse of playing time and manager preferences can be a much bigger deal than knowing if Adam Dunn is more likely to hit .220 or .240. And I have found that I do much better in the auction when I've done the ground work to know the lay of the playing-time land and have familiarized myself with people who are likely to be valuable down the road in the season--first guy off the bench, first guy up from Triple-A when a starter gets hurt or gets suckitis--than I do when I am trusting someone else to tell me that, even if they have updated their projections an hour before I walk into the draft room.

Yep -- projections are just a starting point. Who gets hurt over the next few weeks and who stands out helps you adjust from there. It's all small sample size but the thing I take note of in March are guys that are out of options that get a lot of playing time in March are either going to make the club or make someone else's club via trade.

[Todd Zola]

What I took from JJ's post is that keeping your finger on the pulse of playing time and manager preferences can be a much bigger deal than knowing if Adam Dunn is more likely to hit .220 or .240. And I have found that I do much better in the auction when I've done the ground work to know the lay of the playing-time land and have familiarized myself with people who are likely to be valuable down the road in the season--first guy off the bench, first guy up from Triple-A when a starter gets hurt or gets suckitis--than I do when I am trusting someone else to tell me that, even if they have updated their projections an hour before I walk into the draft room.

Which is why I said the best thing to do is take the projections Jason links and prorate to your own playing time expectations.

It's no secret I do a decent amount of NFBC leagues - trust me when I say that those guys are being kept up on the news DURING THE DRAFT. I recall a couple of years ago there was some news about John Lackey that occurred just about the time he was going to be drafted - some leagues caught the news and some didn't. The funny part was some people in the league getting mad that the person that knew said it out loud so the word could get to the adjacent tables, but that's the NFBC.

[Sam]

Thanks for the help guys! I definitely stay up to the minute as much as possible - I just like to have some projections in front of me so I can see what categories I may still need help in as I try and reach some goal statistics I've set for the year.

[Controller Jacobs]

Four hitter values that need to be watched:

not signed yet:
- Damon, Johnny
- Guerrero, Vladimir

out for 2012:
- Sizemore, Scott
- Martinez, Victor

[swampdragon]

Are there any good projections for the rest of the season?
CBS doesnt seem to change them and keeps them based on their initial comments.

Even just some positional rankings from here on out would be helpful

[Mithrandir]

Are there any good projections for the rest of the season?
CBS doesnt seem to change them and keeps them based on their initial comments.

Even just some positional rankings from here on out would be helpful

hang dartboard.
throw darts.
repeat.