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2K12: AL East Pecking Order

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  • 2K12: AL East Pecking Order

    Is it just me, or does this Boston team look a little weak?

    Shortstop - Either Aviles (mostly an empty .290 batting average with sub-par defense) or Iglesias (world class glove with a sub .600 OPS?)

    Outfield - Ellsbury should be a lock to play elite level CF, but the corners have major question marks. Crawford is coming off a brutal season at the plate AND a wrist injury. The latter is a concern. Ryan Sweeney seems like a proven mediocrity as a starter in RF, while Cody Ross will be exposed facing too much RHP. They have depth, but it's all sub replacement level, barring a step forward from Kalish.

    Rotation - Lester, Beckett, and Buccholtz should be a great 1-3 if they can stay healthy. But 4 and 5 could be rough. Feelings are mixed on whether Bard will transition successfully to starting. Aceves could be an innings eater, but he's been mediocre when he's started in the past. There's a lineup of sub-par depth beyond (Padilla, Cook, Miller, Silva) that will likely get torched pitching in the AL east.

    I love seeing the CBA finally put a hard cap on spending. It'll probably take a decade for the Yanks and Sox to adapt, given that both have some potential albatross contracts to eat in the near future. I guess it makes up for taking away the Jays/Rays ability to hoard draft picks.

    I think the AL east is headlined by an incredible Yankees team, then the Rays, then a dogfight for 3rd place between the Jays and Red Sox. Probably some Jays homerism in there, but I think people underestimate the pitching that's bred from a dozen high level prospects fighting to land that rotation spot in the bigs. How do you think Wade Davis feels in Tampa being leapfrogged by younger higher ceiling guys (Hellickson, Moore)? Probably a big motivator to work to keep his job. Healthy competition is what pushed the Rays into contention, and the Jays are certainly at a similar point to where the Rays were in 2008 given their wealth of starting pitching prospects.

    Yanks - 106 wins
    Rays - 95 wins
    Jays - 85 wins
    Red Sox - 84 wins
    Orioles - 65 wins
    Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."

  • #2
    You're conveniently forgetting to mention that Boston has all starts at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and DH...more than enough to carry a weak bat or two. The pitching is a little weak, but I expect them to add what they'll need to contend. And they we're embarrassed last year by the shenanigans, so they'll have a chip on their shoulder to prove their critics wrong. I can see mid 90's in wins, along with the Yankees, who have their own holes in the lineup, IMO. Jays have too many question marks this season, but the Rays could really be nails, if their 'pen holds up.
    "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
    - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

    "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
    -Warren Ellis

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    • #3
      I agree about the Boston weaknesses, but not so much to rank them 4th:

      1 Yanks
      2 Rays 3 GB
      3 Red Sox 5 GB
      4 Jays 8 GB
      5 O's lost count GB*

      *although they will be way behind the pack I expect to see an improved O's team this year.
      Badges? We don't need no stinkin' badges!

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      • #4
        I agree that Boston seems weaker than usual this season. They didn't make ANY impact moves this off-season, have major question marks with Crawford, Youk, Buchholz & Bard, and the rotation is very suspect.

        The Yanks made a couple of nice moves in getting Pineda & Kuroda, but Nova is still overrated and Hughes is a huge question mark, so their rotation is good, but not excellent either. The lineup is solid, of course, and I'd rank them ahead of the BoSox at this point.

        The Rays staff is probably the best in the division, but their lineup is now full of holes, but I still wouldn't count them out.

        The Jays lineup is very dangerous, but that rotation past the top two is ugly.

        Do the Orioles even matter any longer?

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        • #5
          I don't know about predicting the Yankees to win 9 more games than last year. Pineda and Kuroda are very nice additions, but we don't know how Pineda will handle pitching in NY rather than Seattle or how Kuroda will do away from the friendly NL West. Also, I guess no one else is concerned about Sabathia but he wasn't the same after the All-Star break and in the playoffs and I'm avoiding him in drafts this year. At some point, carrying around 320 pounds (or whatever he weighs -- certainly not the 290 he's listed at) has to catch up with him. I do agree that the Red Sox are a concern. I don't know if they can count on Ortiz producing at that same level again and there are other holes.

          Right now, I'd predict something like this:

          NYY: 99 wins
          TBR: 92 wins
          BOS: 88 wins
          TOR: 84 wins
          BAL: 67 wins

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          • #6
            I guess I'm in the minority but I see the Sox having a big year - I agree with Horns that they will come in with something to prove. I believe that Crawford will bounce back, and Boston will do whatever it takes to shore up the #4 & 5 rotation spots if needed. Re: NY, the jury is out re: how Kuroda & Pineda will perform in NY ... I'll say:

            Bos - 98 wins
            NYY - 91
            TBR - 89
            Tor - 82
            Bal - 75 (moving towards respectability)
            It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

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            • #7
              Funny how the Red Sox who haven't made the playoffs in two years and did very little to improve the team are being ranked above the Yankees and Rays by so many.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by BigJonEmpire View Post
                Funny how the Red Sox who haven't made the playoffs in two years and did very little to improve the team are being ranked above the Yankees and Rays by so many.
                Strange indeed.
                If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                - Terence McKenna

                Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by eldiablo505
                  The Sox won 90 games last year and 89 the year before. Their pythagorean was 95 wins last year. Still funny? Yeah, not so much.
                  I don't think it's out of the question, but I'm not sure if Ortiz can be counted on to repeat last year's excellent performance and Ellsbury almost has to regress to some extent. Yes, that can be balanced out by Crawford having a better season and Youkilis staying healthy (although that hardly seems like a given). And Bard could surprise in the rotation. I just have a hard time projecting them for more than 90 wins right now in a very tough division.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by TranaGreg View Post
                    Bal - 75 (moving towards respectability)
                    I don't know -- the lineup is certainly solid but the pitching is just horrendous -- both the rotation and the relief. You know your staff is a problem when losing Jeremy Guthrie hurts you significantly. To make matters worse, Britton is already banged up. It also doesn't help that they have to play so many games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. It's certainly not out of the question that they could win 75 games but they'd need a couple of pitchers to step up in a pretty big way.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by eldiablo505
                      The Sox won 90 games last year and 89 the year before. Their pythagorean was 95 wins last year. Still funny? Yeah, not so much.
                      And they still missed the playoffs.

                      I don't think the Red Sox are a bad team. I do think their lineup is strong even with negative regression from Ortiz and Esbury, and hopefully a healthy Youkilis slows his decline. But the bullpen could be a problem after the top two, especially if they keep Bard in the rotation. Beckett and Lester should be strong at the top of the rotation. Buchholz has the talent to be right there with them, but he has yet to pitch that way consistently in the majors. The last last two spots are Bard and a truck load of mediocrities. They have a shot. I live right in the heart of Red Sox Nation and follow them closely. But they should be far from the favorite to win the division.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by eldiablo505
                        Well, a healthy Buchholz will make a massive difference, no?

                        Hey, if anyone wants to bet the under on 90 wins for Boston I'll gladly put up my avatar on the over.
                        I won't bet the win totals, but I'll gladly bet they don't win the division.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BigJonEmpire View Post
                          And they still missed the playoffs.

                          I don't think the Red Sox are a bad team. I do think their lineup is strong even with negative regression from Ortiz and Esbury, and hopefully a healthy Youkilis slows his decline. But the bullpen could be a problem after the top two, especially if they keep Bard in the rotation. Beckett and Lester should be strong at the top of the rotation. Buchholz has the talent to be right there with them, but he has yet to pitch that way consistently in the majors. The last last two spots are Bard and a truck load of mediocrities. They have a shot. I live right in the heart of Red Sox Nation and follow them closely. But they should be far from the favorite to win the division.
                          Weren't the Yankees actually in a worse position last year? You had CC and then 4 cyphers...somehow they got enough to push them to the top. I think the Sox start out in a better position with 3 good to great pitchers at the top of the rotation, and promise in a 4th. They only have to find a 5th starter if all is well, and the bullpen should actually be pretty good with Melencon and Bailey at the end of it.

                          As far as Youk is concerned, it's not like he's ancient, and even if he misses 30+ games, he still produces at an elite level when he's in there. Count on Crawford to bounce back, and that is a dangerous team...
                          "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                          - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                          "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                          -Warren Ellis

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TS Garp View Post
                            I don't know -- the lineup is certainly solid but the pitching is just horrendous -- both the rotation and the relief. You know your staff is a problem when losing Jeremy Guthrie hurts you significantly. To make matters worse, Britton is already banged up. It also doesn't help that they have to play so many games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. It's certainly not out of the question that they could win 75 games but they'd need a couple of pitchers to step up in a pretty big way.
                            I'm thinking that another year under their belts should help their young P's - Britton, Arrietta, and Tillman & Matusz if they can get their stuff together ... but obviously lots can go wrong.
                            It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Hornsby View Post
                              Weren't the Yankees actually in a worse position last year? You had CC and then 4 cyphers...somehow they got enough to push them to the top. I think the Sox start out in a better position with 3 good to great pitchers at the top of the rotation, and promise in a 4th. They only have to find a 5th starter if all is well, and the bullpen should actually be pretty good with Melencon and Bailey at the end of it.

                              As far as Youk is concerned, it's not like he's ancient, and even if he misses 30+ games, he still produces at an elite level when he's in there. Count on Crawford to bounce back, and that is a dangerous team...
                              No doubt, the Red Sox were the better pick last season. But this season the Yankees look strong in the rotation and bullpen, and the lineup is still strong despite a few aging and patched up parts. It isn't that the Red Sox cant win, I just don't think they're the better pick. I think Ubaldo Jimenez could be better than CC Sabathia this season, but if asked to rank them CC still goes first.

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