Shields 2012 value?

[price]

12 team AL only 5x5 roto keeper $260

What kind of value do you think James Shields is at $21 in AL only? He will probably regress a bit, but could he put up similar numbers and will he be traded any time soon?
Probably slim pickens on top starting pitching in the draft. An owner offered him to me.

[Lucky]

I think he is worth every penny of that, though not much more if any. That said, a) I wouldn't trade for him if I had to give up anything of substantially greater value, profit-wise, and 2) If your league has substantial inflation, he could be a bargain at $21. In a league with substantial inflation, he could easily go for $30

[price]

I think he is worth every penny of that, though not much more if any. That said, a) I wouldn't trade for him if I had to give up anything of substantially greater value, profit-wise, and 2) If your league has substantial inflation, he could be a bargain at $21. In a league with substantial inflation, he could easily go for $30

Yeh, I was thinking in our league he is probably close to a $30 pitcher. In our league Haren is $37, Hernandez $37 and a guy like Scherzer is on a team at $24

I had an owner offer him for either Moustakas $10 (2yrs) or Kipnis $10 (2yrs) and Turner $5 (3yrs) and a guy like Seager at $5 (2yrs)

[joncarlos]

With regression and without inflation, $21 is about right. If he is traded out of Petco East, his value could take a bit of a hit, although getting away from the AL East might cancel that out. With inflation he is probably a $25-$27 pitcher. It wouldn't shock me to see him go for $30. If the price is right I'd definitely trade for him.

[price]

With regression and without inflation, $21 is about right. If he is traded out of Petco East, his value could take a bit of a hit, although getting away from the AL East might cancel that out. With inflation he is probably a $25-$27 pitcher. It wouldn't shock me to see him go for $30. If the price is right I'd definitely trade for him.

Would you trade these guys for him in a keeper league? Moustakas $10 (2yrs) or Kipnis $10 (2yrs) and Turner $5 (3yrs) and one lesser player

[joncarlos]

Would you trade these guys for him in a keeper league? Moustakas $10 (2yrs) or Kipnis $10 (2yrs) and Turner $5 (3yrs) and one lesser player

That's pretty steep. I think Moose still needs a little more time to adjust, and maybe Turner does too. But those 2 alone for a slightly undervalued ace seems like more than enough. If you think you can win it all I'd do it, but I also think you could probably get a pitcher similar to Shields by trading Turner in June.

[Moonlight J]

I don't make that trade.

I saw a mock drafter take Matt Moore over Shields last night -- that's insanity

[wannabegriffey]

I don't make that trade.

I saw a mock drafter take Matt Moore over Shields last night -- that's MOOREsanity

fixed

[Hornsby]

Man, it seems like we're forgetting his absolutely putrid 2009 and 2010 seasons where he gave up 485 hits in 423 innings. Last year was the outlier in terms of hits allowed...he's usually a hit an inning guy, and he was far below that in 2011. I would be very wary of what James you'll get...

[Gregg]

I do not make that trade. It is too expensive.

[Moonlight J]

Man, it seems like we're forgetting his absolutely putrid 2009 and 2010 seasons where he gave up 485 hits in 423 innings. Last year was the outlier in terms of hits allowed...he's usually a hit an inning guy, and he was far below that in 2011. I would be very wary of what James you'll get...

He's not the same pitcher as he was in 2009 and 2010. His curveball is a weapon now and not just a show-me pitch. His pickoff move is deadly and with Jose Molina back there, the best framing catcher in the business, it is only going to help him. He can throw all of his pitches at any point in the count now and a lot of 2010 was pitch selection and overuse of his cutter.

[Hornsby]

I heard pretty much the same spiel after the 2008 season when he was dubbed "Big Game James" and proceed to crap the bed. I remain burned, and unconvinced....

[price]

Thanks guys for your input. I think you've talked me into a definate no. Maybe one of those 3 mentioned and a couple of lesser guys. I can trade for pitching during the season depending on how things go. I always believe in trading pitching for hitting in the off season, but not the other way around. Pitching is just too hard to determine year to year outside of maybe 3-5 of the true aces