Player evaluation past #300

[onejayhawk]

For those of us that do not regularly engage in leagues that roster 480 or more players, or only leagues with 240+, give us some tips for the latter parts of a deep draft.

For those that have never been in a dynasty league, how do you evaluate farm talent?

J

[joncarlos]

Single season, keeper and dynasty are all very different animals.

For a deep single season league like Mock 1, you're really looking for playing time. A David Dejesus type is really useful when the best FA is Nate McLouth and you have 2 outfielders on the DL. You're also looking for lightning in a bottle with some of your picks, but there has to be some understanding that even in a really deep league, some of those guys are going to be FAs (like Vogelsong and Kotchman last year).

On the pitching side, you're looking at skills (K9, GB%) because all that's left is #5 starters, middle relievers and guys with no clearly defined role. If they do get a role, you want them to be able to do something with it. Nobody is rushing to pick up the Astros' 5th starter. Going back to the depth thing, if I can plug in a solid reliever like Eric O'Flaherty for 3 weeks, even if all I get out of it is 10 innings, 8 Ks, 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, that's still a good contribution.

For a dynasty league you're kind of also looking for PT. Who is going to be able to force their way into a regular role and do something with it? And which TEAMS are better about giving their rookies a real shot rather than exposing them in drips and drabs? I generally give preference to hitters. I feel like prospect analysis has come a long way in the last 10 years, so if people are just drafting off of a BP list or a BA list, they're doing OK. If you want to do better, you can look for specific things (scarce positions, speed, etc), but it never hurts to focus on outfielders. If you're starting 5 of them, that's probably the easiest spot to get a rookie into your lineup.