2K12: Yonder Alonso

[DJBeasties]

Free Yonder!

After being blocked behind Joey Votto, Alonso finally gets a chance at full-time ABs in San Diego after being dealt to the Padres for Mat Latos. Of course, Anthony Rizzo was shipped in a separate deal from San Diego to Chicago which cleared up the role -- or so it appears.

Alonso is a line drive machine whose swing should play well in Petco Park. He reguarly put up line drive rates over 25% and is also pushing the high-30's on flyball rates making him a rare blend when you consider he paired that with an 85% contact rate and double-digit (11%) walk rate.

Obviously from a fantasy standpoint, he'd be better served playing in a bandbox with the Reds. But with Votto there and given that he is just OK as an outfielder, there was little room for him. With the Padres, he should play every day and with his advanced plate approach and him being 24 years old, it seems like he is ripe to go in 2012. It's just the counting stats won't be much to look at. He'll hit 5th, which is nice, behind Carlos Quentin and in front of Nick Hundley. If Cameron Maybin can sustain in '12 and Quentin stays healthy (BIG if) the Padres might score more than anticipated.

He did have a minor knee procedure done in October but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Petco is a blackhole for left-handed power (-37%) so don't expect more than 10-12 home runs. I wouldn't be surprised given that park and Alonso's line drive stroke if he didn't even get to 10. FWIW, he's never hit more than 12 in professional baseball.


2012 Projections

550 ABs
.275 BA
9 HRs
56 RBI
50 Runs
5 SBs
35 doubles

[joncarlos]

Maybin is locked into CF. They have Venable, Quentin and Blanks hanging around for LF/RF, and also Jesus Guzman lurking for 1B/OF time. If Alonso struggles, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Padres send him down and save his service time. His walk rates were over 10% at both AAA and MLB last year. His value will really only be in OBP leagues and deep NL only leagues, as he's a Professional Hitter in a fairly crappy lineup and a crappy park.

[Davros]

given that he is just OK as an outfielder

Admittedly I only watched him play a handful of games in LF (and mainly in August, so his September may have been better), but what I saw was less than OK. Tony Campana's inside-the-park HR is the easy to remember example of his outfield defensive issues.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110805&content_id=22781724&notebook_id=22782460&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc

After all of the trades, I have to assume that the Padres will give Alonso every chance to play 1B on a regular basis, so he will have value. To be fair, he did hit 15 HRs in 2010 if you combine his AA and AAA stats together, but I also doubt that a double digit HR output in 2012 is going to happen thanks to Petco. That 13 SB output in the minors in 2010 is hard to imagine from a guy of his build, but I think it is possible that he could post more than 5 SB next season if he is allowed to run (might not be likely after getting caught 5 out of 11 times in 2011).