Is it too early for a "Mike Stanton 2012" thread?

[Lucky]

15-team mixed 5x5 league, high level of competition

I have Mike Stanton at $5 with 2012 his option year. I can extend him extra years for $5 per year.

What do you guys see him doing next year? I'm thinking of extending him, but only for a single year, which will make him $10 for 2012 and 2013.

Thoughts?

[wannabegriffey]

$15 - and you won't be disappointed.

[Gregg]

$15 - and you won't be disappointed.

This is what I would do.

[NL Only]

Agree

[roadtrip68]

Absolutely, without a doubt.

[Judge Jude]

better chance to win in 2012 and 2013 at 10.
better chance to contend in 2014 if you still have him at 15.

there are people here who would want you to go to 20, or event 25, which makes no sense to me.
what's so bad about a huge bargain?

go 10 if you have a good keeper list and haven't sipped the champagne in your league in a while - or ever.
otherwise, 15 is ok. at worst, he's Harmon Killebrew.

[gcstomp]

In a 12 tm NL keeper if you keep Stanton at $15 thru 2015, then in 2014 you can trade him away to a rebuilder for multiple solid pieces for your title run. If you had just kept him at $10 thru 2014 then you wont get diddly for your stretch run, you get more by extending him, you create trade value, however counter intuitive that may seem.

[SeaDogStat]

Any buyout penalty?

[Sour Masher]

In a 12 tm NL keeper if you keep Stanton at $15 thru 2015, then in 2014 you can trade him away to a rebuilder for multiple solid pieces for your title run. If you had just kept him at $10 thru 2014 then you wont get diddly for your stretch run, you get more by extending him, you create trade value, however counter intuitive that may seem.

I agree with this. He is still a great bargain at $15, and if you want/need to, you can trade him in 3014 for a future pieces.

[Judge Jude]

That's part of the scenario.
The other part is that with the extra 5 units, you might wind up getting the last key player you need to win a title, instead of coming up just short. The 10 total units you lose are not necessarily insignificant, either.

Plus while I am fairly content with the amount of Stanton's body of work, it's not quite "can't miss," either. There is a more-than-zero chance that Stanton suffers some sort of injury, such as back problems, that sets him back overall in this three-year span. Or there's a freak play like happened to Posey (of course catchers are much more prone to it, but then Posey isn't going to run into an OF wall, either).

I don't have a problem with going to 15 on Stanton, given all the variables. It passes a lot of tests.

But paying 15-15-15 instead of 10-10 is not guaranteed to be the best play, either, depending on a lot of factors. The youngest budding superstars sometimes have a hiccup or two in the early years. Stanton's K rate is a little daunting, for instance. So far, he's been very effective in spite of that. But if film study shows a hole in his swing that gets around the league, he may have to do some adjusting to fight back.

I do love his career arc, ultimately. But in fantasy ball, we're only focusing usually on the next couple of years, and that's a little less certain.

There's always an opportunity cost to paying more per year for a player. That doesn't mean you can't or won't come out ahead - and this looks on paper like a good example of that, at 15. But the opportunity cost does exist.

I'm just presenting the most plausible case against, I think, and I find that useful in my contract decision-making.
Roughly speaking, you're planning to pay Stanton 45 over the next 3 years.
If you go 10-10, then you're paying 20 for two years.
Can you get Stanton for 25 in 2014, making it a total of 45?

You're betting no, which seems like a no-brainer. But if he somehow doesn't pan out, then you overpaid (oversimplified a bit, but you can see the point).

I've been amazed over the years how many long longtermed deals didn't work out (before we limited the length about 15 years ago).

Dwight Gooden was drafted for 5 in 1984.
5 again in 1985, then I think he was extended (this is an unusual rule in our league) to 10 in 1986, 15 in 1987, 20 in 1988, and 25 in 1989.

Granted drugs did him in, but Gooden is one of the few players who was AHEAD of Stanton in accomplishments at age. Gooden was still 20 when he had one of the most dominating pitching seasons in the history of baseball (1985; he turned 21 a month after the season ended). Stanton turned 21 right after his rookie season ended.

24-4, 1.53 ERA.
In Gooden's first five games in September, he didn't allow an earned run in 44 IP. He slacked off in the finale, with a 2-ER complete game with 10 K.

Has there ever been a better player to longterm forever, it seemed?
Even Pujols was only conventionally "maybe the best hitter in the league" quality right out of the gate.

[chancellor]

I agree with this. He is still a great bargain at $15, and if you want/need to, you can trade him in 3014 for a future pieces.

Awesome. That's almost as good as a soju quote.

[Sour Masher]

Awesome. That's almost as good as a soju quote.

Haha....I need to read what I type before posting.

[BigJonEmpire]

On the other hand from what these guys are saying:

Stanton is a 40-homerun type of player. That is getting to be quite rare in the post PED era. He is improving his plate skills, becoming more seective. He started to utilize his speed more n the bases in the 2nd half of the season and that is unlikey to stop with Ozzie at the helm. He may never be the batting champ but I don't think he'll be terrible with his batting average. He is easily a $30 player in deep mixed leagues, probably 40 if he went int your auction. You could go to 20 and I don't think you'd ever regret it. If he suffers a major injury it'll suck in any case, but after having him on your roster for two years, you'll be very sad to see him go.

[Judge Jude]

"but after having him on your roster for two years, you'll be very sad to see him go."

not if he wins two pennants - or maybe even just one - assuming that's what he's trying to do....

[BigJonEmpire]

"but after having him on your roster for two years, you'll be very sad to see him go."

not if he wins two pennants - or maybe even just one - assuming that's what he's trying to do....

Call it conflicted emotions then.