2K12: Adam Dunn

[revo]

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, we have the turkey of the decade (century?) in Adam Dunn.

After seven seasons of being incredibly consistent, the usually bankable Dunn had a season for the ages -- the Middle Ages -- in 2011. A .159 BA, .272 SLG, .569 OPS, just 11 HRs, 36 Runs and 42 RBIs equaled some of the worst stats any major leaguer has ever produced. This after signing a 4-year, $56m contract.

What the heck happened? His BABIP was .240, down from his career norm of .292. His K% boomed as well, continuing a startling upward trend over the last 4 years: 25.2%, 26.5%, 30.7%, 36.5%. His HR% & XBH% rates were puny: 2.2% & 5.4% over his 496 PAs. His LD% stayed normal, as did his GB/FB ratio. His Pitches/PA was up slightly, possibly because he didn't want to swing the bat. At the same time, his Strike Swinging % and Strike Looking % all were pretty similar to career norms.

I just can't find any glaring stat that says "A-ha!" So was it mental? Can he bounce back from this monumental disaster?

I'm guessing he will, that he hasn't become another Dale Murphy, but I think we've seen the last of the consistent Adam Dunn.

.225/26/77

[Bodhizefa]

He's gained a considerable amount of weight over the last two years. I can't help but believe this has had a negative effect on his performance, especially as he isn't getting any younger. Lance Berkman basically admitted he was playing better in 2011 vs. 2010 due to all the weight he lost last off-season. If Dunn cares to make any sort of comeback, losing 20-plus pounds would be a fantastic start.

[chancellor]

He's gained a considerable amount of weight over the last two years. I can't help but believe this has had a negative effect on his performance, especially as he isn't getting any younger. Lance Berkman basically admitted he was playing better in 2011 vs. 2010 due to all the weight he lost last off-season. If Dunn cares to make any sort of comeback, losing 50-plus pounds would be a fantastic start.

Fixed. He was always big, but he's outright fat right now. And wayyyy out of condition.

[Bodhizefa]

Fixed. He was always big, but he's outright fat right now. And wayyyy out of condition.

LoL. I was trying to be nice to the fatty and give him the benefit of the doubt!

[Gregg]

Maybe he eats when he is depressed. And how can you not be depressed when BATTING A BUCK FATTY!!! er I mean fifty.

[Long John]

Sometimes its easier to set yourself for Comeback Player of the Year when you have something to come back from.

.262/40/120

[Riff Raff]

Sometimes its easier to set yourself for Comeback Player of the Year when you have something to come back from.

.262/40/120

120 RBI? A bit high for my taste.

[Bodhizefa]

120 RBI? A bit high for my taste.

I doubt Long John seriously believes that projection.

[Grinch]

Sometimes its easier to set yourself for Comeback Player of the Year when you have something to come back from.

.262/40/120

Boy, do I hope a couple of guys in my AL only league drink that kool-aid!!!!

[Long John]

You're right. Should be 100 RBIs. He's never knocked in 110 - he's not going to start now.

He just turned 32 last month. He'll be playing for a new manager in 2012, which might help. It was his first year in the AL in his career and his first year with any kind of regular DH duty. But he played 35 games at 1B, so he still qualifies in the field. I'd buy Adam Dunn next year if the price was right.

If anything, the .262 BA might be the hardest part to achieve. .240 might be more realistic.

[Gregg]

You're right. Should be 100 RBIs. He's never knocked in 110 - he's not going to start now.

He just turned 32 last month. He'll be playing for a new manager in 2012, which might help. It was his first year in the AL in his career and his first year with any kind of regular DH duty. But he played 35 games at 1B, so he still qualifies in the field. I'd buy Adam Dunn next year if the price was right.

If anything, the .262 BA might be the hardest part to achieve. .240 might be more realistic.

If he bats .240 at least one fantasy player in every league across the country will rejoice.

I also believe there are at least 2 fantasy players in every league that will take a chance on him. This means that his price will be on the high end of risk. Many might like to get him at $10, I doubt he goes for much less than $18 or $20. Spring training will have an effect as well.

I would say as of this writing my ceiling in a 12 team AL only $260 budget is $15. My hope is that he has a bad ST and then has a comeback season. That will be my best chance of getting him at a bargain. If he has a good spring training I will bring him up with my first pick and let others take the risk.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I said this in the middle of last season, and I'll repeat it. I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. Wouldn't want him on my team for a $1 unless I could afford to permanently bury him in a bench spot.

[Gregg]

I said this in the middle of last season, and I'll repeat it. I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. Wouldn't want him on my team for a $1 unless I could afford to permanently bury him in a bench spot.

I think many would agree with you.

The problem is that if a $10 Dunn gives someone the .240 ave. with 38-40 hrs he has done for the last 8 out of 9 years they have a shot at a title. Of course I am not suggesting that this wins by itself, but it is a pretty good start.

Those that have pretty strong teams and little money going in and those that are rebuilding should have great interest in him. And of course those that have won with him in the past will be hard pressed not to take him if he is a bargain.

[chancellor]

I said this in the middle of last season, and I'll repeat it. I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. Wouldn't want him on my team for a $1 unless I could afford to permanently bury him in a bench spot.

I missed that comment last season. Would you be willing to re-expound why? I'll admit that I'm waiting to see what kind of conditioning he commits to in the offseason, call it the "Berkman effect".

[Kevin Seitzer]

I missed that comment last season. Would you be willing to re-expound why? I'll admit that I'm waiting to see what kind of conditioning he commits to in the offseason, call it the "Berkman effect".

Because I think his bat speed is gone. Pitchers were regularly challenging him over the heart of the plate with fastballs last year, and he wasn't driving them with authority in the least bit. Now it could be that he had an injury that will heal over the offseason or something happened to his eyesight that he could get corrected, in which case his performance might return. But I'm convinced there was something physically wrong with him last year, something more than just lingering weakness from an appendectomy.