Interesting report

[Moonlight J]

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/PM5mY

Look at the BRS% for some of the guys when you consider the league average is 14%. If only some of these guys would drive in a higher percentage (Uggla) or have more opportunities to plate guys (J. Upton).

[Big Tymer]

Agree. Taking Jay Bruce as an example though I think you can look at the data in two ways (a) opportunity in terms of runners and (b) conversion. For a player with a lot of opportunity but low conversion like Bruce should we be worried about regression (e.g. the opportunity doesn't present itself as plentiful) or additional upside (e.g. the 14% conversion bumps up to 17%)?

As a static 1-year view you can't really draw conclusions either way. Also, does this take into account where on the basepaths the runner is? Could be that some guys had more runners at 1st and others 2nd/3rd and if it's not differentiated the outputs could be a little misleading.

[onejayhawk]

BT raises an interesting point. BABIP tends to vary around a core number. I suspect this does as well. Tracking it over several years would be helpful.

J

[OaklandA's]

As a static 1-year view you can't really draw conclusions either way. Also, does this take into account where on the basepaths the runner is? Could be that some guys had more runners at 1st and others 2nd/3rd and if it's not differentiated the outputs could be a little misleading.

No, it does not. It also does not take into account the number of outs. Baseball Prospectus has detailed stat reports that breaks the data down into Runners on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and how many of each were driven in. Ryan Howard, for example, had an MLB-leading 100 Runners on 3rd Base, while MCabrera had only 74.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1043797

[onejayhawk]

No, it does not. It also does not take into account the number of outs. Baseball Prospectus has detailed stat reports that breaks the data down into Runners on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and how many of each were driven in. Ryan Howard, for example, had an MLB-leading 100 Runners on 3rd Base, while MCabrera had only 74.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1043797

Is there a metric that tells you how a batter fairs in various BR/out situations.

J

[OaklandA's]

Is there a metric that tells you how a batter fairs in various BR/out situations.

Not really any single metric, but all of the splits are readily available. Here are Howard's splits in 2011, for example:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=howarry01&year=2011&t=b

[Judge Jude]

To be fair to Howard, he does tend to have modest leanings toward better numbers in bigger spots and in closer games.
But a huge fan would be disappointed that the disparity isn't as much as he'd like.

[Moonlight J]

No, it does not. It also does not take into account the number of outs. Baseball Prospectus has detailed stat reports that breaks the data down into Runners on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and how many of each were driven in. Ryan Howard, for example, had an MLB-leading 100 Runners on 3rd Base, while MCabrera had only 74.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1043797

I forget the sweet reports we have there....anxious for the UI changes to go through. B-Ref is so intuitive

[onejayhawk]

Not really any single metric, but all of the splits are readily available. Here are Howard's splits in 2011, for example:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2011&t=b

Something to work on. Obviously a bases empty situation favors the HR hitter. RSP favors the average hitter. There ought to be a way to do at least quick and dirty comparisons. I know a stats grad student that might tackle this.

J

[Moonlight J]

My write-up on this today @ BP http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=15308