Ryan Howard -- Possible Torn Achilles

[Judge Jude]

No, the contract is dumb because the guy is wildly overpaid even when healthy - he hasn't climbed above a 127 OPS+ in three of the last four years, which is not very impressive for a 1B, and he'll be 32 in November with "old man skills."

To cite only RBI is a deliberate attempt, for whatever reason, to ignore the dramatic advantage he has had in terms of where he's hitting.

Plus he's a career .231 hitter vs LHP (.224 in 2011) with a .749 OPS, and I wouldn't want to pay a guy a zillion dollars when he can be pretty well neutralized in a big spot late in a game.

[Moonlight J]

I wasn't aware there were any SMART deals in baseball. All these guys are overpaid. How much they are overpaid is perception only.

Paying fat sluggers huge dollars into their late 30's is just bad baseball. This is the benefit of being a small-budget team as they get to avoid playing with the toxic assets that most free agent contracts are.

[Hammer]

Its weird because we all have thesr metrics we use that we think are more accurate barometers and yet baseball men for the most part use the old standbys. Howard wouldve gotten that money from ten other teams if not the Phils. I dont know what to say. I will take his bat on my team.

[Bodhizefa]

Paying fat sluggers huge dollars into their late 30's is just bad baseball. This is the benefit of being a small-budget team as they get to avoid playing with the toxic assets that most free agent contracts are.

That's the worst part, though. Howard wasn't even a free agent yet. He still had a couple of years of team control remaining, and yet the Phillies paid Howard like he was A-Rod in his prime. For a first baseman! Who very clearly isn't even top 5 at his position (and arguably isn't top 10)!

Again, I like Amaro fine overall. He'd be a horrible GM for a small market team, but he wheels and deals and gets enough good guys for the huge budget the Phillies have. The Howard signing was super dumb, but it's tough to argue too much about a GM who's helped his team get to the playoffs three years in a row.

[Judge Jude]

Many baseball men are in their 50s and 60s, and those old dogs aren't going to learn 'new tricks' now. The new metrics ARE more accurate barometers; the evidence is rather overwhelming. A lot of posters here win pennants because they are using 'newfangled' stuff as predictive measures while rivals stick with the same outdated concepts that some old GMs do.
There are some huge differences between real and fantasy ball, obviously, but both attempt to forecast who will hit and who will miss, and there are ways in each case to improve your odds.

I'm also skeptical that Howard would have gotten THAT much money from other teams.
I think even setting aside the recent injury, we can agree that the Phillies could have had a great chance now of getting superior players in Pujols or Fielder for not a lot more than Howard makes.

[Moonlight J]

Its weird because we all have thesr metrics we use that we think are more accurate barometers and yet baseball men for the most part use the old standbys. Howard wouldve gotten that money from ten other teams if not the Phils. I dont know what to say. I will take his bat on my team.

It's a hefty premium to pay. Since 2007, he ranks just 9th on OPS+ for 1B behind Pujols, Miggy, Votto, Fielder, Gonzo, Berkman, Teixeira, and Youkilis and just one point ahead of the insanely cheaper Carlos Pena. He's also 9th in offensive WAR during that time period.

[onejayhawk]

I'd take Hosmer, Konerko, Freddie Freeman, and possibly even Michael Morse over Howard for the next few years, too. Howard's basically a platoon bat at this point, and there's just no way you pay a platoon bat like that uberstar money.

Konerko? You serious?

For the others, I can see your point. Howard is not aging well. He justified the contract the year they wrote it. It would be reasonable to believe he would maintain 2008-2009 level a while longer, and fall off slower. But that is why Branch Rickey traded his stars when they hit 30.

I still would not take Hosmer over him through 2013, were it not for the injury.

J

[chancellor]

Konerko? You serious?

He should be. 3 year average OPS of abut .900, much higher OBP, and he sure appears to be a better defensive 1Bman, though I don't have that backed with advanced defensive stats. Konerko's pretty solid against both LHPs and RHPs, too.

[The Dane]

Regardless, of how much Howard's numbers are a product of his team, he generates a TON of RBIs and HRs every year. He may not be an elite first baseman in real life, but on my fantasy squad, I can win with his production. And now since, he'll come cheap next year...

[Bodhizefa]

Regardless, of how much Howard's numbers are a product of his team, he generates a TON of RBIs and HRs every year. He may not be an elite first baseman in real life, but on my fantasy squad, I can win with his production. And now since, he'll come cheap next year...

He'll come cheap next year because he might not even play next year, lol.

[The Dane]

He'll come cheap next year because he might not even play next year, lol.

I play in keeper leagues. If I can get him for $20-$27 or so, he'll be an absolute STEAL in 2013 and 2014, which is a nice anchor for my contender or a bitchen trade piece. This is an ankle injury on a player who is essentially immobile already. Wrist injury? Back injury? Totally different story.

[Bodhizefa]

I play in keeper leagues. If I can get him for $20-$27 or so, he'll be an absolute STEAL in 2013 and 2014, which is a nice anchor for my contender or a bitchen trade piece. This is an ankle injury on a player who is essentially immobile already. Wrist injury? Back injury? Totally different story.

Fair enough. I knew you probably had a good reason for saying what you did (you always have good reasons), but the wording made me blink a bit. Howard's an obvious risk in 2012, but further than that, he's probably as safe a bet as any 240 lb. first baseman with old man skills.

[The Dane]

Fair enough. I knew you probably had a good reason for saying what you did (you always have good reasons), but the wording made me blink a bit. Howard's an obvious risk in 2012, but further than that, he's probably as safe a bet as any 240 lb. first baseman with old man skills.

True, but how many as-close-a-guarantee-as-you-can-get players are 100 rbi/30 HR guys? Not that many. That is serious production from an otherwise flawed player.

[Bodhizefa]

True, but how many as-close-a-guarantee-as-you-can-get players are 100 rbi/30 HR guys? Not that many. That is serious production from an otherwise flawed player.

No, I totally agree. Howard's been underrated in fantasy while being overrated in the real world the past couple of years (at least he has in my leagues). There's some obvious risk for decline in the next couple of years, though. And you've really got to hope his weight doesn't balloon while he's unable to walk or exercise that much in the next couple of months, because keeping that under control will be tougher and tougher the older he gets.

[Judge Jude]

"Howard's been underrated in fantasy while being overrated in the real world the past couple of years (at least he has in my leagues)."

Really? He gives you no speed and little to no help in AVG, and not great in R last year if 5x5. Those are exactly the kind of players overvalued in my league.

Howard went for $38 in my NL 12-team 5x5 this year, and paid $23 per HQ, which is pretty typical for him in overvalue-dollars.

Kemp went for $48 and was worth $56.
Pujols went for $48 and was worth $36, since he got hurt a couple of times.
Fielder went for $44 and was worth $35 (he and Pujols, adjusted for inflation, were acceptable values. Howard was a money-loser).
Loney went for $20 and was worth $17, leaving 18 dollars to try to find another $6 worth of value. Not hard to do.

Howard will be 32 next month, and 33 1/2 by April 2013. I will also go out on a limb and guess that he will weigh slightly more off a ton of inactivity (even if he plays at all in 2012).

If I was already doomed in a 2012 keeper league, sure I might go 20. But not 27, and not at all if I have any hopes at all in 2012.