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DISCLAIMER: There may be some confusion about the purpose of some of my posts like this, so let me explain. My main focus since joining the original site here in 1999 is to HELP OTHER OWNERS WIN. I saw a combination, even then, of both newcomers and veterans who were looking for that sort of thing. The purpose of these anatomies, which I think I started off a 2002 title, is to show that you can make mistakes and still win, so don’t be afraid to take chances in the right situations. And when I have a bad year, I try to learn from my mistakes, and maybe you can, too.
As it turns out, many longtime, very successful owners have reached out to me to say they enjoy reading a breakdown either of similar approaches, or of seeing some different wrinkles. I can’t teach them any more than they can teach me - but we still can learn from each other.
Finally, in recent years I’m noticing more head-to-head players who want to try an auction league, but may find the strategy involved a little daunting. Discussions like this may help, I hope.
If a post like this doesn’t appeal to you, I understand. We’ll meet again on a different thread.
For anyone else, it’s a long read, but an even longer offseason. Setthis one aside for when you have a few minutes - or print it for when... you know.
And let me know what moves – dumb or smart – surprised you most.
……………..
(This below is the original post from April, verbatim, with a “VERDICT” at the end of each player or trade. You’ll see some mid-auction head-scratchers, then a dollar-days bonanza late. The comments, except after “VERDICT” and some trade-decision analysis, are from April):
…………………………..
For my 28th annual auction in this league – 12-team NL-only 5x5 - I walked in with just this:
FREEZE LIST
C Carlos Ruiz 6
VERDICT: Paid $9, and even breaking even was worth it for keepers as it turned out
OF Shane Victorino 29
VERDICT: Was worth $25 even with injuries; no regrets.
SP Roy Halladay 44
VERDICT: “Only” a $34 season, but no regrets here, either. It helps a LOT to know for months how to plan your auction with an uber-stud in hand. If you toss him back and then see all the SPs go for 50, you’re scrambling in mid-auction to come up with a new plan. Consistency is the hobgoblin of fantasy baseball winners, to some extent.
SP Tommy Hanson 10
VERDICT: No-brainer, yet only played out for $10 as he missed the last 2 months of the season after some struggling-arm starts. What are ya gonna do?
SP Stephen Strasburg 5
VERDICT: Will be 10 in 2012, but got him cheap (see below). Too bad I traded him away (see WAY below).
5 for 94 units
I traded away Jonathan Sanchez 10-O for Strasburg 5-S1 [in March], since I’m basically just rebuilding for 2012 after selling my soul in vain last season (an amazing 13 players or ex-farm picks I dealt away during last season were frozen by other teams, plus I kept 5 more).
My gut feeling was that because of a 2008 rule change to make even farmhand hitters just 5 units, inflation should be higher than typical because about 18 farmhands carried the 5-S2 price (or the 10/15 longterm price if they were clearly studs already). So I wanted to be fairly aggressive early. My targets and price points included (with alternatives) Braun 42 (Holliday), Aramis 23 (Sandoval), McLouth 11 (BFrancisco), Berkman 8 (DeRosa, other 1B-OF vets). Was willing to go 16-18 for Wandy, Dempster, or Garza, or maybe 13 for Lowe. Liked Motte up to 5 in ‘pen if feasible.
And then – all hell broke loose, at least relative to this rather moderate league (all of the owners are over 40, the average age is over 50, we have three retirees and a couple more getting close, and the last “new blood” arrived in 2002).
I start out needing:
18 for 166
In sequence of when I obtained them:
MATT HOLLIDAY 40 – I go to 44 on Braun, but can’t get him. Pujols goes for 48 earlier, Fielder 44, Howard 38 – the rules of engagement are pretty clear. Kemp goes later for 49, Ethier 32, Werth 36, so I won’t kick myself here in a rebuilding mindset. Now need 17 for 126
VERDICT: Multiple injuries cost Holliday about 200 AB, so he was only a $23 player. Can’t second-guess the choice, though.
PABLO SANDOVAL 23 – We’re in the third round now, and the frenzy isn’t going away. A couple of owners still have 150+ units, and the first hint of panic is sensed. So if I can get a guy like this even at the peak of my comfort level, I need to do it. Aramis goes later for 29, so I’ll take this one, too. Need 16 for 103
VERDICT: Panda paid out an uninflated $23, so have to like this play a lot. Ironically, Aramis also matched his uninflated value of $29.
MIGUEL MONTERO 15 – Was torn here: I already had Ruiz at 6, and figured I could get a decent price on 5-6 catchers. This is the best of the bunch available, but indeed later I see Iannetta and Yadier each go for only 8. In this frenzied room, I want to make sure I can add solid players before it REALLY gets nutty, so it’s ok. Need 15 for 88
VERDICT: A $19 player, so still getting good value in frenzied waters. So far, so good.
NATE MCLOUTH 15 – Guh. Another 14-15 players have gone by, and some owners STILL have 120+ units left. I do not like McLouth types at all for that sort of markup, but the need to avoid the silliest late bidding wars pushed me over the top. Not bragging here on this one. Need 14 for 73
VERDICT: Worth of $0. Injuries hurt, but my consolation is I knew I blew it even in April, lol.
BEN FRANCISCO 11 – Ok, that’s my target price, and we’re at the stage that ANYONE who can be had for the target price is alluring. I think it was in Round 8 when an owner who also had an NL only auction Friday night said that our auction finally bought ANY player for less than was paid there (Buck for 11 here, 12 there). That’s amazing; glad I wasn’t in that one. Need 13 for 62
VERDICT: Worth just $3, pretty much all of that value coming in April. The blood in the provberbial auction water is getting thicker now.
BILL HALL 10 – Never owned him before, don’t like him now. Had yet to fill a single 2B-SS-MI slot, and not a lot left at this point. Not happy. Need 12 for 52
VERDICT: Worth minus $2 for a $12 deficit. This was a weird point in the auction. I had a hunch there would be plenty of bargains later given the bidding rates, but too much caution would mean better buys - but also $20-$30 left on the table. So took a reach, and paid for it.
JAMES LONEY 20 – There are very few decent players left, and plenty of owners still have way too much money. I gambled that Loney was boring enough that no one would bid him into the stratosphere. At this stage, in this particular auction, this was a good buy even if he’s not a likely keeper in 2012. Need 11 for 32
VERDICT: Spectacular August and Sept left Loney with a $17 season, which indeed made this a very good play in this spot.
PLACIDO POLANCO 12 – Great, another old guy. But by now the talent cupboard is almost bare, and I can see that plenty of bargains will await me at the end because of the laughable, desperate unit-draining buys in this time frame like Branyan 19, Dempster 29, Blake 17, Lowe 19 etc. Need 10 for 20, and now willing to wait a couple of rounds before grabbing a solid undervalued guy or two before dollar days. Comfortable at this point in the auction.
VERDICT: Lost about 150 AB due to injuries, yet still paid $10, so again I like this one in retrospect.
KOSUKE FUKUDOME 5 – What the fuku? Yes, he’s a decent player, but the guy’s liable to be in Japan by 2012, which is what I’m looking at. There was very little talent left by now, but I should have let someone else get a “bargain” at 4. Need 9 for 15
VERDICT: An $8 season, but half of it was in the irrelevant AL. Appropriate, as this was an irrelevant pick.
KYLE MCCLELLAN 6 – First pitcher I took in this entire auction (had frozen 3), and it’s virtually at end-game! Spectacular spring and I'd love him as a sleeper, cheaper, but this play eliminated a lot of other opportunities later. Only hope is that the bargain basement bin is even deeper than I have hoped. Need 8 for 9
VERDICT: Got off to a strong start and won 12 games. Bad Sept, after I had dumped him, gave a season value of just $2.
HOMER BAILEY 2 – Ok, this is the sort of play you make for 2012, and of course he may even bring a nice profit this year. Everybody’s almost broke by now. Need 7 for 7
VERDICT: Just a $1 season, but proved to be trade bait, anyway.
SCOTT COUSINS 1 – Where did this come from? The auction was fast-paced this year (3.5 hours instead of the usual 4.5), and that can lead to results like this. The Marlins kid is not a bad play late, but I already had 5 OFs, so this ate up my UT slot. My last two 1-unit hitters will have to be a SS and a 2B-SS. I’d have done better to grab a pitcher here. Need 6 for 6
VERDICT: minus $5, and only memorable for knocking out my former prospect Buster Posey for the season. Consoled that I recognized most of my blunders only hours after the auction. This was a bad one.
RANDY WOLF 1 – Much-maligned vet had a stellar second half for me last year (8 W, 3.10 ERA). Bad spring, and hammered today I later found out, but the price is right. I’ll take my chances. Need 5 for 5
VERDICT: Rough finish but still won 13 games and had a $7 season.
MIKE LEAKE 1 – Few rivals could top my 1-unit P bid, and seemed like sexier names remained, so why not develop a kid who could be a nice price for 2012. Need 4 for 4
VERDICT: A $9 season, but Dusty Baker said in May that he was being moved to long relief “indefinitely” so I had to cut him. 2 days later, he was back in the rotation. Suck it, Dusty.
JEFF KEPPINGER 1 – On DL, so was obvious I’d get him at this price. A pulse is a real plus at this stage. Need 3 for 3
VERDICT: Paid $7, but not a season-maker here.
AARON HARANG 1 – Yes, really. Wouldn’t call him earlier, in case I could get lucky here. No lock, but in Petco this sure seems like a sensible play. Need 2 for 2
VERDICT: A lousy Ratio pegs him as only a $6 player in 2011, but I could afford the Ratio and needed the 14 Ws so he’s a double-digit wonder in my heart.
DANIEL HERNANDEZ 1 – Just have to name a guy to own him now, and 8th-inning setup man to fragile Putz who throws 97 is the type of guy I wanted as I rebuild. Need 1 for 1
VERDICT: Putz only missed a couple of weeks, but Hernandez still had a $9 season with 11 SV and 5 W.
DANIEL MURPHY 1 – A rather uncertain future, but better to pencil in as a 2B-SS than a “real,” lightweight scrub. DONE
VERDICT: $16 season and $15 profit from my “hardly Mr. Irrelevant.” Not hard to make modest profits late, but very happy to wind up with $54 of value from my six $1 players to conclude the auction.
REPLACEMENTS
For Strasburg – SAM DEMEL. Not really a believer, but another chance to “short” Putz in ARI and I get the retroactive win. Short leash here.
VERDICT: Gone after two weeks for EduSanchez (what might have been!).
For Keppinger – ANGEL SANCHEZ. Meh, but off to a decent start and might provide a run scored now and then.
VERDICT: Did what was expected and then was jettisoned.
For Bailey – CHRIS VOLSTAD. A 7th SP means maybe I get enough Ws and Ks to stay out of the basement.
VERDICT: Dumped after 2 weeks for Padilla (hey, for one shining moment…). Amusingly, given that April comment, I wound up leading the league in Wins.
…………………
ROSTER, not a pennant-winner
SP Roy Halladay
SP Tommy Hanson
SP Aaron Harang
SP Randy Wolf
SP Kyle McClellan
SP Mike Leake
SP Chris Volstad for Homer Bailey
RP Daniel Hernandez
RP Sam Demel for Stephen Strasburg
C Miguel Montero
C Carlos Ruiz
1B James Loney
3B Pablo Sandoval
13 Placido Polanco
2B Bill Hall
SS Angel Sanchez for Jeff Keppinger
2S Daniel Murphy
OF Matt Holliday
OF Shane Victorino
OF Nate McLouth
OF Ben Francisco
OF Kosuke Fukudome
UT Scott Cousins
………………………
LOOKING BACK IN OCTOBER 2011 for a moment: My starting staff won games at such a high rate that I had a double-digit lead in Wins early, and overall this “rebuilding” team was contending. Then in early May, the first white flag went up from a slow-starting squad. I wanted to buy myself some time, but if you’re going to pass on a chance to get the previous year’s MVP, then that is a decision in and of itself. My natural “FLAGS FLY FOREVER” mode soon won out:
Effective May 12
I trade Homer Bailey 2-S2, Scott Cousins 1-S2, reserved Stephen Strasburg 5-S1, and farmhands Dee Gordon and Randall Delgado (both 5-S2 when recalled) for Joey Votto 20-O and Chad Billingsley 29-S2.
VERDICT: The rationale was that I was just one big bat away from making a run, with a bonus that I wasn’t even giving up a Fukudome-type roster filler but a black hole in Cousins. Bailey was hurt, and Billingsley would set me up to move an excess SP as needed. Votto’s $36 season indeed set up the $40+ benefit from that swap, but Billingsley proved to be barely replacement level. Bailey got hurt a lot but is cheap for 2012, Cousins awful. Strasburg had the perfect recuperation season, and can be kept for 10 and out in 2012 or 15 in 2012 and 20 in 2013. I’m rooting for the kid and he is the real deal; still not sure we get a full season out of him in 2012 but longterm I expect a 200-game winner. Gordon turned out an $11 season in 224 AB; I listened to the HQ naysaying on this guy due to OBP concerns, as their farmhand track record has been stellar. A sure keeper for the other owner next year. Delgado looked good in limited duty and remains a strong prospect, but the Braves rotation has a logjam and my farm system does, too. I could lose big on this deal in the long run, but haven’t lost anything just yet. I think I’ll lose - but not sure I’ll lose big, as “sure things” have a funny way of disappointing.
………………………….
As June ends, I’m in 4th place and 25 pts out, but not believing in the leader’s talent, and I’ve already pushed a lot of chips in, so:
Effective June 30
I trade Jordan Lyles 5-S2 for Francisco Rodriguez 25-S2.
VERDICT: The K-Rod owner was in last place, and there was little market for K-Rod as he might head to AL within a couple of weeks. Other guy coveted Lyles, who had just come up for the Astros. Rookie starters are a bad play for contenders, especially in the second half of the season (even good young pitchers like Zimmermann get shut down early), so I had to dump Lyles. K-Rod wound up in Milwaukee and gave me 5 W, 3 SV, 1.56 ERA, 1.125 Ratio with 38 K in 34 IP, while Lyles had a minus $8 season that figures to kill his keeper status.
Also June 30
I trade Randy Wolf 1-S2, farmhand Trevyon Robinson (5-S2 upon recall), and my 2nd-round April 2012 farm pick for Huston Street 20-S1 and injured Hong-Chih Kuo 10-S1.
VERDICT: I knew Wolf would continue to be serviceable, but I had the huge Wins lead but no closer – plus Street looked like a potential 2012 keeper to boot. Street only saved 5 games for me, though. Robinson got dealt to Seattle a couple of weeks later, so the other guy got stung there. I asked for Kuo to be thrown in for the pick, and the other guy agreed. Kuo was awful and quickly dispatched. Total waste of a pick, speculating on Dodgers Saves. Surprised to get beaten overall on this deal.
Also June 30
I trade reserved Nate McLouth 15-S2 for an April 2012 2nd-round farm pick.
VERDICT: Got a pick back that same week, for a player as banged-up and awful as Kuo was for me. Other guy had a shallow OF, and…..
…………….
Effective July 7
I trade Placido Polanco 12-S2 for Carlos Pena 17-S2.
VERDICT: Again, dealing away excess. My team and one other were hitting around .280, and no one else was even at .265, so Pena for me was Pena with no AVG danger – a perfect player for my good but not great offense, and he gave me what I wanted. Polanco was sought as a keeper and still could be one in spite of injuries.
……………………….
Fast forward to Aug 1 – I’m still treading water, but the leaders are now only 15 pts back as they slipped back to our pack. My early-season deals still haven’t borne full fruit yet, and it looks like I can make a big run now. But am I SURE that I should deal Hanson (15 in 2012) and Daniel Murphy 1 for Hanley Ramirez 41 and Greinke 27? Greinke’s peripherals show an even better pitcher than Hanson lurking beneath in spite of that 5.00+ ERA, but am worried about H-Ram’s health. I decided if I’m going to do this, it would be coupled with a move to add lame-duck Kershaw for a package including new Mets closer Parnell 10 and a hot prospect like Jameson Taillon or Tim Wheeler (again, 5-S2s when up for good). The Kershaw owner, who had received the big Votto package, said I still had more to offer than anyone else – and he was right.
While I’m mulling, suddenly the struggling first-place team acquired Kershaw for farmhands Yonder Alonso and Zach Lee (Parnell **** the bed, so maybe good move for the other guy). I’m stunned – and now back on my heels in that worst of all places: limbo. Around this time, Hanson, Murphy, and H-Ram all go down, for the season it turns out in each case – ¾ of that other blockbuster I mulled. Greinke later went to the 3rd-place team, and was often unhittable.
The second-place team then goes all-in, dealing Kimbrel at 5 and more for Brian Wilson 33 and Uggla (as he begins to catch fire).
Now three teams have seriously upgraded, and the cupboard is almost bare in terms of what’s left from the also-rans to snag.
So I run the numbers, and see that I have merely an outside shot at second even if I push more chips in for those scraps – but I could trade some offense and STILL make a run at 3rd place anyway, while beefing up for 2012. My HQ-added projections for the stretch run were uncanny last year, so I make that unorthodox play as the trade deadline arrives:
Effective Aug 18
I trade Votto 20-O, Matt Holliday 40-S2, Billingsley 29-S1 and filler Carroll for Starlin Castro 5-S1, a second-round farm pick, and filler Carroll, Sappelt, and Detwiler.
VERDICT: The eventual runnerup only got 6 weeks of Votto and less than that of banged-up Holliday. Castro as usual hit .300 and is a tantalizing player at age 22 in 2012.
………………
EPILOGUE: I indeed was in the hunt for 3rd in the final days before settling for 4th (almost got caught by a super-charge from below, but held on). In pretty good shape for 2012 (see roster in sig), with an excellent farm system and lots of farm picks in my quiver.
As it turns out, many longtime, very successful owners have reached out to me to say they enjoy reading a breakdown either of similar approaches, or of seeing some different wrinkles. I can’t teach them any more than they can teach me - but we still can learn from each other.
Finally, in recent years I’m noticing more head-to-head players who want to try an auction league, but may find the strategy involved a little daunting. Discussions like this may help, I hope.
If a post like this doesn’t appeal to you, I understand. We’ll meet again on a different thread.
For anyone else, it’s a long read, but an even longer offseason. Setthis one aside for when you have a few minutes - or print it for when... you know.
And let me know what moves – dumb or smart – surprised you most.
……………..
(This below is the original post from April, verbatim, with a “VERDICT” at the end of each player or trade. You’ll see some mid-auction head-scratchers, then a dollar-days bonanza late. The comments, except after “VERDICT” and some trade-decision analysis, are from April):
…………………………..
For my 28th annual auction in this league – 12-team NL-only 5x5 - I walked in with just this:
FREEZE LIST
C Carlos Ruiz 6
VERDICT: Paid $9, and even breaking even was worth it for keepers as it turned out
OF Shane Victorino 29
VERDICT: Was worth $25 even with injuries; no regrets.
SP Roy Halladay 44
VERDICT: “Only” a $34 season, but no regrets here, either. It helps a LOT to know for months how to plan your auction with an uber-stud in hand. If you toss him back and then see all the SPs go for 50, you’re scrambling in mid-auction to come up with a new plan. Consistency is the hobgoblin of fantasy baseball winners, to some extent.
SP Tommy Hanson 10
VERDICT: No-brainer, yet only played out for $10 as he missed the last 2 months of the season after some struggling-arm starts. What are ya gonna do?
SP Stephen Strasburg 5
VERDICT: Will be 10 in 2012, but got him cheap (see below). Too bad I traded him away (see WAY below).
5 for 94 units
I traded away Jonathan Sanchez 10-O for Strasburg 5-S1 [in March], since I’m basically just rebuilding for 2012 after selling my soul in vain last season (an amazing 13 players or ex-farm picks I dealt away during last season were frozen by other teams, plus I kept 5 more).
My gut feeling was that because of a 2008 rule change to make even farmhand hitters just 5 units, inflation should be higher than typical because about 18 farmhands carried the 5-S2 price (or the 10/15 longterm price if they were clearly studs already). So I wanted to be fairly aggressive early. My targets and price points included (with alternatives) Braun 42 (Holliday), Aramis 23 (Sandoval), McLouth 11 (BFrancisco), Berkman 8 (DeRosa, other 1B-OF vets). Was willing to go 16-18 for Wandy, Dempster, or Garza, or maybe 13 for Lowe. Liked Motte up to 5 in ‘pen if feasible.
And then – all hell broke loose, at least relative to this rather moderate league (all of the owners are over 40, the average age is over 50, we have three retirees and a couple more getting close, and the last “new blood” arrived in 2002).
I start out needing:
18 for 166
In sequence of when I obtained them:
MATT HOLLIDAY 40 – I go to 44 on Braun, but can’t get him. Pujols goes for 48 earlier, Fielder 44, Howard 38 – the rules of engagement are pretty clear. Kemp goes later for 49, Ethier 32, Werth 36, so I won’t kick myself here in a rebuilding mindset. Now need 17 for 126
VERDICT: Multiple injuries cost Holliday about 200 AB, so he was only a $23 player. Can’t second-guess the choice, though.
PABLO SANDOVAL 23 – We’re in the third round now, and the frenzy isn’t going away. A couple of owners still have 150+ units, and the first hint of panic is sensed. So if I can get a guy like this even at the peak of my comfort level, I need to do it. Aramis goes later for 29, so I’ll take this one, too. Need 16 for 103
VERDICT: Panda paid out an uninflated $23, so have to like this play a lot. Ironically, Aramis also matched his uninflated value of $29.
MIGUEL MONTERO 15 – Was torn here: I already had Ruiz at 6, and figured I could get a decent price on 5-6 catchers. This is the best of the bunch available, but indeed later I see Iannetta and Yadier each go for only 8. In this frenzied room, I want to make sure I can add solid players before it REALLY gets nutty, so it’s ok. Need 15 for 88
VERDICT: A $19 player, so still getting good value in frenzied waters. So far, so good.
NATE MCLOUTH 15 – Guh. Another 14-15 players have gone by, and some owners STILL have 120+ units left. I do not like McLouth types at all for that sort of markup, but the need to avoid the silliest late bidding wars pushed me over the top. Not bragging here on this one. Need 14 for 73
VERDICT: Worth of $0. Injuries hurt, but my consolation is I knew I blew it even in April, lol.
BEN FRANCISCO 11 – Ok, that’s my target price, and we’re at the stage that ANYONE who can be had for the target price is alluring. I think it was in Round 8 when an owner who also had an NL only auction Friday night said that our auction finally bought ANY player for less than was paid there (Buck for 11 here, 12 there). That’s amazing; glad I wasn’t in that one. Need 13 for 62
VERDICT: Worth just $3, pretty much all of that value coming in April. The blood in the provberbial auction water is getting thicker now.
BILL HALL 10 – Never owned him before, don’t like him now. Had yet to fill a single 2B-SS-MI slot, and not a lot left at this point. Not happy. Need 12 for 52
VERDICT: Worth minus $2 for a $12 deficit. This was a weird point in the auction. I had a hunch there would be plenty of bargains later given the bidding rates, but too much caution would mean better buys - but also $20-$30 left on the table. So took a reach, and paid for it.
JAMES LONEY 20 – There are very few decent players left, and plenty of owners still have way too much money. I gambled that Loney was boring enough that no one would bid him into the stratosphere. At this stage, in this particular auction, this was a good buy even if he’s not a likely keeper in 2012. Need 11 for 32
VERDICT: Spectacular August and Sept left Loney with a $17 season, which indeed made this a very good play in this spot.
PLACIDO POLANCO 12 – Great, another old guy. But by now the talent cupboard is almost bare, and I can see that plenty of bargains will await me at the end because of the laughable, desperate unit-draining buys in this time frame like Branyan 19, Dempster 29, Blake 17, Lowe 19 etc. Need 10 for 20, and now willing to wait a couple of rounds before grabbing a solid undervalued guy or two before dollar days. Comfortable at this point in the auction.
VERDICT: Lost about 150 AB due to injuries, yet still paid $10, so again I like this one in retrospect.
KOSUKE FUKUDOME 5 – What the fuku? Yes, he’s a decent player, but the guy’s liable to be in Japan by 2012, which is what I’m looking at. There was very little talent left by now, but I should have let someone else get a “bargain” at 4. Need 9 for 15
VERDICT: An $8 season, but half of it was in the irrelevant AL. Appropriate, as this was an irrelevant pick.
KYLE MCCLELLAN 6 – First pitcher I took in this entire auction (had frozen 3), and it’s virtually at end-game! Spectacular spring and I'd love him as a sleeper, cheaper, but this play eliminated a lot of other opportunities later. Only hope is that the bargain basement bin is even deeper than I have hoped. Need 8 for 9
VERDICT: Got off to a strong start and won 12 games. Bad Sept, after I had dumped him, gave a season value of just $2.
HOMER BAILEY 2 – Ok, this is the sort of play you make for 2012, and of course he may even bring a nice profit this year. Everybody’s almost broke by now. Need 7 for 7
VERDICT: Just a $1 season, but proved to be trade bait, anyway.
SCOTT COUSINS 1 – Where did this come from? The auction was fast-paced this year (3.5 hours instead of the usual 4.5), and that can lead to results like this. The Marlins kid is not a bad play late, but I already had 5 OFs, so this ate up my UT slot. My last two 1-unit hitters will have to be a SS and a 2B-SS. I’d have done better to grab a pitcher here. Need 6 for 6
VERDICT: minus $5, and only memorable for knocking out my former prospect Buster Posey for the season. Consoled that I recognized most of my blunders only hours after the auction. This was a bad one.
RANDY WOLF 1 – Much-maligned vet had a stellar second half for me last year (8 W, 3.10 ERA). Bad spring, and hammered today I later found out, but the price is right. I’ll take my chances. Need 5 for 5
VERDICT: Rough finish but still won 13 games and had a $7 season.
MIKE LEAKE 1 – Few rivals could top my 1-unit P bid, and seemed like sexier names remained, so why not develop a kid who could be a nice price for 2012. Need 4 for 4
VERDICT: A $9 season, but Dusty Baker said in May that he was being moved to long relief “indefinitely” so I had to cut him. 2 days later, he was back in the rotation. Suck it, Dusty.
JEFF KEPPINGER 1 – On DL, so was obvious I’d get him at this price. A pulse is a real plus at this stage. Need 3 for 3
VERDICT: Paid $7, but not a season-maker here.
AARON HARANG 1 – Yes, really. Wouldn’t call him earlier, in case I could get lucky here. No lock, but in Petco this sure seems like a sensible play. Need 2 for 2
VERDICT: A lousy Ratio pegs him as only a $6 player in 2011, but I could afford the Ratio and needed the 14 Ws so he’s a double-digit wonder in my heart.
DANIEL HERNANDEZ 1 – Just have to name a guy to own him now, and 8th-inning setup man to fragile Putz who throws 97 is the type of guy I wanted as I rebuild. Need 1 for 1
VERDICT: Putz only missed a couple of weeks, but Hernandez still had a $9 season with 11 SV and 5 W.
DANIEL MURPHY 1 – A rather uncertain future, but better to pencil in as a 2B-SS than a “real,” lightweight scrub. DONE
VERDICT: $16 season and $15 profit from my “hardly Mr. Irrelevant.” Not hard to make modest profits late, but very happy to wind up with $54 of value from my six $1 players to conclude the auction.
REPLACEMENTS
For Strasburg – SAM DEMEL. Not really a believer, but another chance to “short” Putz in ARI and I get the retroactive win. Short leash here.
VERDICT: Gone after two weeks for EduSanchez (what might have been!).
For Keppinger – ANGEL SANCHEZ. Meh, but off to a decent start and might provide a run scored now and then.
VERDICT: Did what was expected and then was jettisoned.
For Bailey – CHRIS VOLSTAD. A 7th SP means maybe I get enough Ws and Ks to stay out of the basement.
VERDICT: Dumped after 2 weeks for Padilla (hey, for one shining moment…). Amusingly, given that April comment, I wound up leading the league in Wins.
…………………
ROSTER, not a pennant-winner
SP Roy Halladay
SP Tommy Hanson
SP Aaron Harang
SP Randy Wolf
SP Kyle McClellan
SP Mike Leake
SP Chris Volstad for Homer Bailey
RP Daniel Hernandez
RP Sam Demel for Stephen Strasburg
C Miguel Montero
C Carlos Ruiz
1B James Loney
3B Pablo Sandoval
13 Placido Polanco
2B Bill Hall
SS Angel Sanchez for Jeff Keppinger
2S Daniel Murphy
OF Matt Holliday
OF Shane Victorino
OF Nate McLouth
OF Ben Francisco
OF Kosuke Fukudome
UT Scott Cousins
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LOOKING BACK IN OCTOBER 2011 for a moment: My starting staff won games at such a high rate that I had a double-digit lead in Wins early, and overall this “rebuilding” team was contending. Then in early May, the first white flag went up from a slow-starting squad. I wanted to buy myself some time, but if you’re going to pass on a chance to get the previous year’s MVP, then that is a decision in and of itself. My natural “FLAGS FLY FOREVER” mode soon won out:
Effective May 12
I trade Homer Bailey 2-S2, Scott Cousins 1-S2, reserved Stephen Strasburg 5-S1, and farmhands Dee Gordon and Randall Delgado (both 5-S2 when recalled) for Joey Votto 20-O and Chad Billingsley 29-S2.
VERDICT: The rationale was that I was just one big bat away from making a run, with a bonus that I wasn’t even giving up a Fukudome-type roster filler but a black hole in Cousins. Bailey was hurt, and Billingsley would set me up to move an excess SP as needed. Votto’s $36 season indeed set up the $40+ benefit from that swap, but Billingsley proved to be barely replacement level. Bailey got hurt a lot but is cheap for 2012, Cousins awful. Strasburg had the perfect recuperation season, and can be kept for 10 and out in 2012 or 15 in 2012 and 20 in 2013. I’m rooting for the kid and he is the real deal; still not sure we get a full season out of him in 2012 but longterm I expect a 200-game winner. Gordon turned out an $11 season in 224 AB; I listened to the HQ naysaying on this guy due to OBP concerns, as their farmhand track record has been stellar. A sure keeper for the other owner next year. Delgado looked good in limited duty and remains a strong prospect, but the Braves rotation has a logjam and my farm system does, too. I could lose big on this deal in the long run, but haven’t lost anything just yet. I think I’ll lose - but not sure I’ll lose big, as “sure things” have a funny way of disappointing.
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As June ends, I’m in 4th place and 25 pts out, but not believing in the leader’s talent, and I’ve already pushed a lot of chips in, so:
Effective June 30
I trade Jordan Lyles 5-S2 for Francisco Rodriguez 25-S2.
VERDICT: The K-Rod owner was in last place, and there was little market for K-Rod as he might head to AL within a couple of weeks. Other guy coveted Lyles, who had just come up for the Astros. Rookie starters are a bad play for contenders, especially in the second half of the season (even good young pitchers like Zimmermann get shut down early), so I had to dump Lyles. K-Rod wound up in Milwaukee and gave me 5 W, 3 SV, 1.56 ERA, 1.125 Ratio with 38 K in 34 IP, while Lyles had a minus $8 season that figures to kill his keeper status.
Also June 30
I trade Randy Wolf 1-S2, farmhand Trevyon Robinson (5-S2 upon recall), and my 2nd-round April 2012 farm pick for Huston Street 20-S1 and injured Hong-Chih Kuo 10-S1.
VERDICT: I knew Wolf would continue to be serviceable, but I had the huge Wins lead but no closer – plus Street looked like a potential 2012 keeper to boot. Street only saved 5 games for me, though. Robinson got dealt to Seattle a couple of weeks later, so the other guy got stung there. I asked for Kuo to be thrown in for the pick, and the other guy agreed. Kuo was awful and quickly dispatched. Total waste of a pick, speculating on Dodgers Saves. Surprised to get beaten overall on this deal.
Also June 30
I trade reserved Nate McLouth 15-S2 for an April 2012 2nd-round farm pick.
VERDICT: Got a pick back that same week, for a player as banged-up and awful as Kuo was for me. Other guy had a shallow OF, and…..
…………….
Effective July 7
I trade Placido Polanco 12-S2 for Carlos Pena 17-S2.
VERDICT: Again, dealing away excess. My team and one other were hitting around .280, and no one else was even at .265, so Pena for me was Pena with no AVG danger – a perfect player for my good but not great offense, and he gave me what I wanted. Polanco was sought as a keeper and still could be one in spite of injuries.
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Fast forward to Aug 1 – I’m still treading water, but the leaders are now only 15 pts back as they slipped back to our pack. My early-season deals still haven’t borne full fruit yet, and it looks like I can make a big run now. But am I SURE that I should deal Hanson (15 in 2012) and Daniel Murphy 1 for Hanley Ramirez 41 and Greinke 27? Greinke’s peripherals show an even better pitcher than Hanson lurking beneath in spite of that 5.00+ ERA, but am worried about H-Ram’s health. I decided if I’m going to do this, it would be coupled with a move to add lame-duck Kershaw for a package including new Mets closer Parnell 10 and a hot prospect like Jameson Taillon or Tim Wheeler (again, 5-S2s when up for good). The Kershaw owner, who had received the big Votto package, said I still had more to offer than anyone else – and he was right.
While I’m mulling, suddenly the struggling first-place team acquired Kershaw for farmhands Yonder Alonso and Zach Lee (Parnell **** the bed, so maybe good move for the other guy). I’m stunned – and now back on my heels in that worst of all places: limbo. Around this time, Hanson, Murphy, and H-Ram all go down, for the season it turns out in each case – ¾ of that other blockbuster I mulled. Greinke later went to the 3rd-place team, and was often unhittable.
The second-place team then goes all-in, dealing Kimbrel at 5 and more for Brian Wilson 33 and Uggla (as he begins to catch fire).
Now three teams have seriously upgraded, and the cupboard is almost bare in terms of what’s left from the also-rans to snag.
So I run the numbers, and see that I have merely an outside shot at second even if I push more chips in for those scraps – but I could trade some offense and STILL make a run at 3rd place anyway, while beefing up for 2012. My HQ-added projections for the stretch run were uncanny last year, so I make that unorthodox play as the trade deadline arrives:
Effective Aug 18
I trade Votto 20-O, Matt Holliday 40-S2, Billingsley 29-S1 and filler Carroll for Starlin Castro 5-S1, a second-round farm pick, and filler Carroll, Sappelt, and Detwiler.
VERDICT: The eventual runnerup only got 6 weeks of Votto and less than that of banged-up Holliday. Castro as usual hit .300 and is a tantalizing player at age 22 in 2012.
………………
EPILOGUE: I indeed was in the hunt for 3rd in the final days before settling for 4th (almost got caught by a super-charge from below, but held on). In pretty good shape for 2012 (see roster in sig), with an excellent farm system and lots of farm picks in my quiver.
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