xBA/xBABIP

[Moonlight J]

came across this today in doing some Kotchman research

http://www.baseballprof.com/2011/08/introducing-expected-batting-average-favorite-stat/

Thought it was an excellent read. Thoughts?

[cardboardbox]

Fangraphs needs to add xBA to their stats. Then the only reason to go to bhq would be for their forums.

[DJBeasties]

Fangraphs needs to add xBA to their stats. Then the only reason to go to bhq would be for their forums.

I don't like their forums but I do love their content, analysis and evolving data. The hard-hit data and new HH/ct% metrics are awesome.

[cardboardbox]

I don't like their forums but I do love their content, analysis and evolving data. The hard-hit data and new HH/ct% metrics are awesome.

They do have good content and data although I find that by they time a player does enough to get their writers' attention, he's already taken in my league. However, that same player was probably already discussed for a week in the forums.

[Moonlight J]

HH/ct is pretty much wOBACON by a different name, no?

[DJBeasties]

Weighted Oh-bacon?! Sounds delicious but I'm unfamiliar with the metric. I bet it's similar but can't confirm. hard-hit % is what HQ uses.

[Todd Zola]

My problem with it is it downplays the possibility that a hitter could have a skill that separates his xBA/xBABIP from the real thing. When a pitcher's xERA (FIP, xFIP, tRA, whatever) differs, we attribute it to "luck". Maybe it is also luck with a hitter, but a player may also be "skilled" in % grounders (or fly balls) that go for hits in a means that is not accounted for in the calculation.

[Kevin Seitzer]

My problem with it is it downplays the possibility that a hitter could have a skill that separates his xBA/xBABIP from the real thing. When a pitcher's xERA (FIP, xFIP, tRA, whatever) differs, we attribute it to "luck". Maybe it is also luck with a hitter, but a player may also be "skilled" in % grounders (or fly balls) that go for hits in a means that is not accounted for in the calculation.

I'll second that.

[Moonlight J]

My problem with it is it downplays the possibility that a hitter could have a skill that separates his xBA/xBABIP from the real thing. When a pitcher's xERA (FIP, xFIP, tRA, whatever) differs, we attribute it to "luck". Maybe it is also luck with a hitter, but a player may also be "skilled" in % grounders (or fly balls) that go for hits in a means that is not accounted for in the calculation.

Pretty much known as the Magic of Kotchman debate in the Rays blogosphere

http://www.draysbay.com/2011/8/9/2353325/why-kotchman-will-be-a-bad-signing

http://www.draysbay.com/2011/8/9/2352593/kotch-kotch-walk-off-kotchman-rays-win-kotchman-kotchman-magic

[cardboardbox]

Since I traded Kotchman away as filler in a dump deal he has gone: .339 5 hr 37 r+rbi. I was contemplating trading Derrek Lee instead who had put up: .266 10 hr 50 r+rbi. I guess it worked out ok but the main reason I dealt Kotchman instead of Lee is because I didnt think Kotchman would continue to start the rest of the season. Sure could have used the extra avg instead of hr right now.