2K11: Jayson Werth

[DJBeasties]

Is this guy going to be undervalued for leaving Philadelphia or will playing for the Nationals make him more pedestrian that what we have seen from him?

[DJBeasties]

Well, this guy is just not on a radar!

[Hammer]

I am down on him when you consider a weaker lineup, harder park to hit in and in the first year of a multi-year deal . Ive seen him as a top 10 OF in some places and I think he fits in around 18 or 19.

[revo]

according to ESPN park factors, the difference between Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park the last couple of seasons was negligible. Obviously the Phillies lineup is better than the Nats, but the Nationals aren't the Mariners.

I like Werth as much as I have the last few years after he established himself. I'll go:

.282/90/28/90/13

[Moonlight J]

according to ESPN park factors, the difference between Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park the last couple of seasons was negligible. Obviously the Phillies lineup is better than the Nats, but the Nationals aren't the Mariners.

This is not being said enough

[Medici]

Average HR Factor the past 3 years according to ESPN
PHI - 1.05
WAS - 0.97

Not a massive gap, but that's the difference between borderline top 10 and borderline bottom 10.

[Hammer]

Average HR Factor the past 3 years according to ESPN
PHI - 1.05
WAS - 0.97

Not a massive gap, but that's the difference between borderline top 10 and borderline bottom 10.

Does anyone know how to translate that into HR differential?

[billbuckner]

Ah yes. Our annual "How much is he Werth?" thread.

[billbuckner]

Someone had to do it

[Hammer]

The Nats' park factor was way overblown back when Alfonso Soriano got traded there and apparently it still is.

I think Werth performs pretty close to what he did in 2010, but with a slight regression in BA (his BABIP was .352 last year).

I like Revo's projections and think that Werth may even end up hitting more HRs than last year if his HR/FB rate gets back up a couple points to 2009 (or even just career) levels.

where is it way overblown?

[Hammer]

How about the fact he has to face Lee, Oswalt, Hamels and Hallady a total of 17 times instead of the garbage pitchers Washington tosses out there?

[Hammer]

He'll likely get 600+ PAs in 2011. You think we should devalue him based on the 68-ish times he faces those guys?

68-ish against quailty pitching as opposed to stiffs?Its certainly a factor. that over 10% of his ab's.

[Hammer]

Places

where besides your mind?

[billbuckner]

[Erik]

I think Werth performs pretty close to what he did in 2010, but with a slight regression in BA (his BABIP was .352 last year).

I agree and will add that we could see a slight PROgression in RBI because a) he will no longer be hitting behind Ryan Howard and b) he had the worst avg with RISP in the ENTIRE National League last year.