scatterplots for AL & NL only Tout Wars values so far

[Moonlight J]

These represent the profit or loss with current player values compared to what was spent on draft day.

AL:



NL:

[virgonomic]

As a statistics teacher I should be able to interpret these.

AL has 100/275 players earning a profit.
NL has 120/300 players earning a profit.
NL has greater maximum loss than AL.
AL has greater maximum profit than NL.

Any other conclusions?

[The Dane]

As an English and Speech teacher, this is over my head.

[OaklandA's]

If I reading the graphs correctly, it looks like there are many more players at -10 (or worse) than there are at +10 (or better).

[virgonomic]

If I reading the graphs correctly, it looks like there are many more players at -10 (or worse) than there are at +10 (or better).

The horizontal axis is player #. The curve crosses -10 on the vertical axis at about 40 (on both graphs), so only 40 players were worth -10 or lower.

More players lost profit than earned it, which surprised me.

[Sharky]

Enjoyed the article on BP, Jason. Good stuff. What do you think the implications are for auction strategy for 2012 and beyond? Does it support any particular approach (e.g. "spread the risk" vs. "stars and scrubs")?

[OaklandA's]

The horizontal axis is player #. The curve crosses -10 on the vertical axis at about 40 (on both graphs), so only 40 players were worth -10 or lower.

Right, and it looks like there are only around 20 players in each league that are over +10.

[Moonlight J]

I've done this 3 years in a row and there have always been more loss than profit in the mid year. I can't recall end of year, but I know that of the 3 years, even the year I came 2nd place in NL, I was still in the negative.

It's all about minimizing risks -- you have to assume about half your roster is going to lose value. You do what you can to control that value. In both leagues, 3 of the top 10 value gainers so far have been closers and at least 2 of the biggest 10 losers have been closer.

[Moonlight J]

Additionally, there were more profitable players in the NL and less losses in the NL than the AL so far

[onejayhawk]

Who are the some of the playerss at the extreme right, both leagues?

J

[Moonlight J]

Who are the some of the playerss at the extreme right, both leagues?

J

1. Craig Kimbrel: +$24

2. Michael Bourn: $+22

3. Matt Kemp: +$20

4. Jose Reyes: +$19

5. Lance Berkman: +$18

6. Drew Storen: +$17

7. Ryan Madson: +$16

8. Daniel Murphy: +$15

9. Jair Jurrjens: +$14

10. Carlos Beltran: +$14

1. Melky Cabrera +$26

2. Brennan Boesch +$25

3. Jordan Walden +$23

4. Jeff Francoeur +$22

5. Curtis Granderson +$20

6. Kyle Farnsworth +$18

7. Asdrubal Cabrera +$18

8. Brandon League +$17

9. Alex Avila +$17

10. Mike Trumbo +$16

[cool hand]

what software/engine are you using to generate the player values? also, is it the net difference between the current value and the preseason generated value, or the actual auction value?

[Moonlight J]

what software/engine are you using to generate the player values? also, is it the net difference between the current value and the preseason generated value, or the actual auction value?

http://www.stallvalue.com/valuesin/index.html

Net difference between their current value and what their actual value is right now according to that system.