MLB Trade Deadline--RJ Style

[Bodhizefa]

JD Drew is 36 years old and has all of 4 HRs and 4 doubles(!) in 231 PAs. He's currently sporting a .652 OPS (79 OPS+). This is the final year of his contract. If the Sox think Reddick can take over for Drew full-time when Crawford returns, that's another story. Otherwise, you have an AL East powerhouse starting a player in a power position with the batting skills of a light-hitting SS. He's a candidate to be DFA'd shortly, IMO.

Let's also keep in mind Beltran is on pace for over 110 RBIs. He's having a great season and is well over his injuries, as he plays every inning of every game. He would be an enormous upgrade over Drew.

Again, same with Lowrie. Furcal, if healthy, would represent a big upgrade here. Lowrie is already 27 -- is he really still a "prospect?" Is he even an everyday starter, when healthy? After 800 PAs, he's a .258 hitter. If you can't say Yes with any conviction, how is that not worth the big upgrade that is Furcal?

SS and RF have been two blights on this team. If this were not a team like the Sox that "has" to get to the playoffs, I'd understand. But is there anything better that we know of available on the trade market?

Using the "when healthy" argument against Lowrie while not mentioning it in regards to Furcal seems a bit biased, no? My honest opinion is that Scutaro is already better than Furcal, so the Red Sox have not one but TWO greater options at shortstop than Rafael (if/when Lowrie is healthy).

And yes, I think the Red Sox would gladly take a run with Reddick and whomever else they have at Triple-A than pay an exorbitant Beltran price. Heck, they could go after any number of second tier outfielders (Ludwick, for example) and not have to pay out the nose for what you project to be the cost of Beltran from the Mets. If that's what it would cost to acquire Carlos, I can't imagine anyone would be in on it. I think the buyers will be able to drive the prices way down on their targets as the sellers really don't have too much leverage. How many teams could even realistically afford Beltran's paycheck for the rest of the year? A handful? Less? I just think you're overestimating the value that these free agents-to-be are worth on the trade market is all.

I love Beltran and think he's a great player, but I wouldn't deal any upper level talent to acquire him, especially if he's going to cost $9+ million for the rest of the year in addition to trade cost.

[revo]

Using the "when healthy" argument against Lowrie while not mentioning it in regards to Furcal seems a bit biased, no? My honest opinion is that Scutaro is already better than Furcal, so the Red Sox have not one but TWO greater options at shortstop than Rafael (if/when Lowrie is healthy).

And yes, I think the Red Sox would gladly take a run with Reddick and whomever else they have at Triple-A than pay an exorbitant Beltran price. Heck, they could go after any number of second tier outfielders (Ludwick, for example) and not have to pay out the nose for what you project to be the cost of Beltran from the Mets. If that's what it would cost to acquire Carlos, I can't imagine anyone would be in on it. I think the buyers will be able to drive the prices way down on their targets as the sellers really don't have too much leverage. How many teams could even realistically afford Beltran's paycheck for the rest of the year? A handful? Less? I just think you're overestimating the value that these free agents-to-be are worth on the trade market is all.

I love Beltran and think he's a great player, but I wouldn't deal any upper level talent to acquire him, especially if he's going to cost $9+ million for the rest of the year in addition to trade cost.

I dunno. The Red Sox are 1.5 games from winning the AL East, and 2.5 games from playing golf in the off-season. I think they ensure they make the playoffs by paying a higher price to get a Beltran and not seeing what Reddick can do for them (which has been very nice thus far). If Reddick continues his solid play, perhaps they go with him. My guess is they go out and get someone else. Ludwick would make sense as well, but it's only a $5m difference in salaries and Beltran would net the Sox a 1st round comp pick when he walks (unsure about Ludwick).

Furcal is healthy right now -- Lowrie is not. The Dodgers should trade Furcal, who's also a FA at year's end, and Boston still makes sense for him. But the Dodgers need to get something of value, or the comp pick will be a better ROI.

[Moonlight J]

Houston mgmt really screwed up

The rest of your post was just filler. Apply that phrase to everything they've done

[Hornsby]

They're playing that Bourjos guy.

Who's probably the best defensive OFer in the game right now, hit .329 in June, and already has 3 steals in July, brining his total to 11.

Umm, have you seen JD Drew's numbers?

Have you seen JJ Reddick's numbers?

Marco Scutaro?

Better than trading valuable prospects for the man of glass...

[Hornsby]

You do realize that Myers has been awful this year right? IMO, Nova > Myers when all factors are considered.

Myers has a track record of some success, while Nova has a track record of no success. There's a reason that the Yankees sent him down rather than keep him in the bullpen where he could have some value with 2 starters coming back from injury and probably being on a short leash.

[revo]

Have you seen JJ Reddick's numbers?

Which one: the 49 ABs or the .450 BABIP?

So you think the Sox are good to go with a rookie with a career .244/.283/.417 line? And if August rolls around and the answer is "well, we thought we were," then what?

[Hornsby]

Which one: the 49 ABs or the .450 BABIP?

So you think the Sox are good to go with a rookie with a career .244/.283/.417 line? And if August rolls around and the answer is "well, we thought we were," then what?

No, I think that the Red Sox go with a vet been there in the past for them, and can afford to, since they lead the majors in runs with those 2 "soft" spots you refer to in the lineup. They need a 5th starter, and maybe a 4th before anything else...offense is not the problem there, if there is one.

[Bodhizefa]

They need a 5th starter, and maybe a 4th before anything else...offense is not the problem there, if there is one.

And maybe a 3rd if Lester is hurt badly. I still think the M's match up with the Red Sox pretty well as the M's have a boatload of pitching and the Red Sox have guys who could slot into left field for the M's immediately.

[Hornsby]

And maybe a 3rd if Lester is hurt badly. I still think the M's match up with the Red Sox pretty well as the M's have a boatload of pitching and the Red Sox have guys who could slot into left field for the M's immediately.

Yeah, I agree that would be a pretty good fit for both teams. As you pointed out in an earlier post, Bedard would be a really nice fir, having pitched in the East for a while, and having success there. Anyone else the M's have that they might consider dealing? Pineda, Fister, and Vargas are all young and under control for a long time, as is Felix.

[Bodhizefa]

Yeah, I agree that would be a pretty good fit for both teams. As you pointed out in an earlier post, Bedard would be a really nice fir, having pitched in the East for a while, and having success there. Anyone else the M's have that they might consider dealing? Pineda, Fister, and Vargas are all young and under control for a long time, as is Felix.

I think the M's would deal either Vargas or Fister if they could get a solid left fielder under team control for a while in return. Thing is, Bedard would make the most sense for a team like the Red Sox as he would possibly be their 2nd best starter in a playoff rotation. Health concerns will always be a caveat for him, but it's at least worth a thought.

My real trade desire at the moment? M's deal Vargas, Nick Franklin, and James Jones to the Astros for Hunter Pence and Fernando Rodriguez.

[revo]

No, I think that the Red Sox go with a vet been there in the past for them, and can afford to, since they lead the majors in runs with those 2 "soft" spots you refer to in the lineup. They need a 5th starter, and maybe a 4th before anything else...offense is not the problem there, if there is one.

This morning from MLB Trade Rumors:
As the trade deadline approaches, the Red Sox are probably going to be looking for position players rather than pitchers, GM Theo Epstein told Peter Gammons in an appearance on NESN (video link).

"I don't see a ton of pitching help out there unless it's the few guys who can really make an impact, who will take your farm system to get," Epstein said. "I think we could benefit from a complementary position player in the right spot."

Epstein cited the organization's pitching depth as a reason why the club won't seek out arms before the deadline. For the time being, he says, the club won't look to tap into that depth to replace John Lackey in the rotation. The 32-year-old has a 7.47 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 through 13 starts this season.

[Hornsby]

This morning from MLB Trade Rumors:
As the trade deadline approaches, the Red Sox are probably going to be looking for position players rather than pitchers, GM Theo Epstein told Peter Gammons in an appearance on NESN (video link).

"I don't see a ton of pitching help out there unless it's the few guys who can really make an impact, who will take your farm system to get," Epstein said. "I think we could benefit from a complementary position player in the right spot."

Epstein cited the organization's pitching depth as a reason why the club won't seek out arms before the deadline. For the time being, he says, the club won't look to tap into that depth to replace John Lackey in the rotation. The 32-year-old has a 7.47 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 through 13 starts this season.

I believe that in the business they call that "disinformation". I don't believe a word of what any GM says in any sport prior to a deal...maybe about 50% of it after the deal.

If Lester is hurt for any length of time, their #2 guy is Miller? Wakefield? Lackey? Aceves? Sorry, they can't win with that rotation, and Theo knows that...so do the other GM's, but he's not going to give them public ammunition that they can use against him in a deal. And what is the organizational depth at pitcher now? They dealt Kelly, tried Doubront, and Rananudo is too young. He's blowing smoke about the depth of pitching.

[revo]

I believe that in the business they call that "disinformation". I don't believe a word of what any GM says in any sport prior to a deal...maybe about 50% of it after the deal.

If Lester is hurt for any length of time, their #2 guy is Miller? Wakefield? Lackey? Aceves? Sorry, they can't win with that rotation, and Theo knows that...so do the other GM's, but he's not going to give them public ammunition that they can use against him in a deal. And what is the organizational depth at pitcher now? They dealt Kelly, tried Doubront, and Rananudo is too young. He's blowing smoke about the depth of pitching.

More disinformation:

According to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Phillies and Red Sox are among the most aggressive suitors, "if not the most aggressive," for Mets' outfielder Carlos Beltran.
Interestingly, Rosenthal notes that the interest in Beltran is so high that the Mets might trade him "several days or more" before the July 31 deadline and pay less of his remaining salary than initially expected. The Red Sox and Phillies both have concerns about luxury tax ramifications, so they would likely want to Mets to cover a substantial portion of the roughly $6 million left on his contract -- at least in a perfect world -- but Rosenthal opines that both teams have demonstrated a past willingness to spend on the right players. Of course, Beltran is the best bat on the market right now, so we'll likely hear a new favorite every day until a deal is done.
Source: FOXSports.com
Jul 19, 6:43 PM

FYI, Beltran got on base five times tonight. Start the clock....

[Hornsby]

More disinformation:

According to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Phillies and Red Sox are among the most aggressive suitors, "if not the most aggressive," for Mets' outfielder Carlos Beltran.
Interestingly, Rosenthal notes that the interest in Beltran is so high that the Mets might trade him "several days or more" before the July 31 deadline and pay less of his remaining salary than initially expected. The Red Sox and Phillies both have concerns about luxury tax ramifications, so they would likely want to Mets to cover a substantial portion of the roughly $6 million left on his contract -- at least in a perfect world -- but Rosenthal opines that both teams have demonstrated a past willingness to spend on the right players. Of course, Beltran is the best bat on the market right now, so we'll likely hear a new favorite every day until a deal is done.
Source: FOXSports.com
Jul 19, 6:43 PM

FYI, Beltran got on base five times tonight. Start the clock....

Meh, and Reddick was 3-4 tonight, his average at .367. And the Red Sox continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored by a wide margin. Would the Red Sox take Beltran if the Mets pick up the majority of his remaining salary? Sure...always better to have too many bats than too few. But I doubt that they part with anyone that could be considered a top prospect for him.

[revo]

Meh, and Reddick was 3-4 tonight, his average at .367. And the Red Sox continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored by a wide margin. Would the Red Sox take Beltran if the Mets pick up the majority of his remaining salary? Sure...always better to have too many bats than too few. But I doubt that they part with anyone that could be considered a top prospect for him.

If that's the way the Sox will go, clearly they won't get him. Too bad, Beltran has become a difference-maker again. And the Sox may need that in a highly competitive AL East.

The Mets strategy on Beltran is simple: get the best package of prospects available. Period. They are not hard up for a salary dump, like in the KRod situation. It's only $6m, not potentially $17.5m. Every team knows he's available; every team knows he's the best hitter on the market. And it's a seller's market this year.

If the reports are true and the Mets pick up his entire salary, then even teams like Pittsburgh and Cleveland have to be in on the bidding. And we know they have the prospects. The Mets hit the jackpot with the resurgence of Beltran with the resurgence of a few small-market teams who have hoarded prospects.

Can the Mets get a Jason Kipnis? Pedro Alvarez? Jarrod Parker? The sky's the limit. But they will land an A-list prospect for him.