It's a Long Slow-Draft Coming

[onejayhawk]

The draft has slowly wandered through most of four rounds. We were in round 13 when the last uninjured player in the top 200 was taken. We don't believe in the Bard. Currently, the top draftable player on the board is an old friend, Jean Segura. His breakout year helped me win a championship a decade ago. I would not mind having him again but that's not going to happen.

We still have four full rounds until I pick again. Hopefully, the pace picks up.

What I need is an OF who has a significant increase in playing time. Any suggestions?

[madducks]

Jack Suwinski has some great home ballpark numbers. He's dreadful on the road though. Andrew McCutchen's numbers could get a boost from coming home to Pittsburgh.

James Outman has potential but no guarantee of playing time...yet.

[harmon]

I'm not sure where things sit in your available players list but I'll just throw out a few names of interesting guys that are going fairly late. Maybe these are later than where you are (?)

Vierling, Cutch, Friedl, Donovan, Colas, Kirilloff, Bae, and N.Jones and Bleday (traded guys with potential for increased time)

[onejayhawk]

Those are some good names. Nolan Jones is on the radar as a prospect. He's definitely a possibility. I had not thought of Colas starting the season in MLB. He's another possibility. Bae less so but still on the list.

Donovan was kept on option. Some others--Vierling, Cutch, Kiriloff--are old friends. How far has Kiriloff fallen? Outman and Friedl are a bit too much pure speed for this slot, but I'll watch them. On Suwinski and Bleday. I reserve my opinion.

How far will Grichuk get knocked back by his injury? 6-8 weeks is only about Tax Day. In any event, he might last with the potential stay on IL.

Update: I am now on the pending list, meaning within 20 picks. Donovan was kept and Kiriloff was drafted about 50 picks higher than I would have.

I found this in a Justin Mason chat.

OF cliff: Who have you been getting a lot for your last couple of OF spots?

10:37

Justin Mason: TJ Freidl

10:37

Justin Mason: Brandon Marsh

10:37

Justin Mason: Jarred Kelenic

10:38

Justin Mason: Kyle Isbel, Leody Tavares, Edward Oliveras.

Fredl was mentioned. Marsh I am very familiar with as well as the last three.

Why is Kelenic lasting to the ends of drafts? I know his career average is sub .200 but he should be able to hit and the guy is only 23, plus he has enough defensive skills that the team will want to play him. Is he Brandon Marsh II or not even that good?

Isbal fits the playing time issue since the competition for CF, Drew Waters is hurt. Taveris has an actual track record now and it could be worse. Olveras is a glove but his big arm plays. I'm throwing Oswaldo Cabrera in the mix because he has a useful CI designation.

Update: The drafting of Bryon Bello--one of my targets--marks the approximate place where I kept Dylan Cease, circa 325.
Update: Colas goes a full round in front of me. I did not expect Garrett Mitchell to make it back to me and he didn't, but it was tantalizingly close.

Now 8th up.

Update: Now on deck. I had a reality check moment when i thought that Luis Garcia was still available, but a recheck proved I had just missed that he was kept on option. I am now re-weighing OF and SP options.

I'm waiting for daylight in Europe. The team picking is managed from Germany. He's a Cardinal fan. I suspect he will take Yepez. If not, I am thinking about doing it myself. I am leaning to the practical, say Michael Kopech or Ross Stripling. It's too early to go full dynasty mode, but in the current mix are Brett Baty and Brandon Pfaadt.

[onejayhawk]

I finally got to pick, circa #350, and took Michael Kopech. This is partly practical for 2023 when I have health risks in the top rotation and partly looking to 2024 when I will lose Zack Wheeler for good.

Looking ahead, there has been a run on elite setup men. Jason Adam was on my shortlist but did not make it back to me. Jose Alvarado is still available, then it's down a tier to Joe Jimenez, and James Karinchak. Aaron Ashby and his injury are stii out there. I may skip all of them and take multiple higher risk guys later.

I seriously considered taking Yepez this round as well as Brandon Marsh to fill my OF slots.

In practical terms, the draft is in a transitional phase for the next two rounds. The back end of the draft is about 90% dynasty oriented with the remainder filling out bullpens and the occasional desperate stab for immediate starter or positional help. For now, the mix is more 60/40, hence the run on closer candidates. The reason for the change has to do with the option rules. Players taken in round 22 and later have a much cheaper first option year.

Update: Most of the next round has passed. Currently 4th up. From my watch list, Karinchak and Kelenic are gone. From a shorter list, Bailey Ober goes. My current eye is on Wesneski and Ashby on the pitching side and nothing really impresses on the bat side. Brandon Marsh has upside and he fills a need.

Update: I went with Marsh. He fills my OF roster and still has some upside. Just before me, Eury Perez was drafted, Two rounds early IMO.

Update: The next round saw some more targets fall--Oswaldo Cabrera, Alex Wood, Brett Baty. I decided that I needed to move on Yepez.

[onejayhawk]

Since we have reached the first option-rule transition round, it's time to grab the high-upside players while they last. You can hope for AA and a 2025 arrival, like Jackson Chourio and Pete Crow-Armstrong. A tier down, are names like Curtis Mead, Tyler Soderstrom and several SP. I hope to get two and go back to practical picks for 2023.

Update: Chourio was gone but I picked up Pete Crow-Armstrong. In round 23 I hope to get someone with less upside but closer to MLB.

Update: One of the better managers just referred to his remaining selections as lottery tickets. Close to 400 picks into the draft, I see his point. With seven slots still open, I am above average for the league.

Update: I was able to get Curtis Mead who is both 2B and 3B so also CI and MI. I hope he comes up soon. I can use him. Probably a prospect SP while the rest of the league is mostly filling out bullpens and getting backups.

Update: Out of the blue I was offered Jhoan Duran and Seranthony Dominguez for Patrick Sandoval and my next pick. That's a lot of sweetener in the deal so hell, yeah. Now I'm glad I grabbed Pfaadt when I did.

Update: For what it's worth, he made the trade to draft Shane Baz.

[onejayhawk]

We have reached the point in the draft where Liam Hendricks (cancer) and Aaron Ashby (shoulder injury) are being selected. For 2023 potential, Jonathan Schoop and Zach Plesac. Even in a redraft league, I would go for Bobby Miller or Ryne Nelson.

Five picks out. Actually, Bobby Miller looks like a possibility. He would come with options to 2028 though the last two years get expensive. Also, considering hometown boy Owen White. The next tier down looks rich--Addison Barger, Cade Cavelli, Gordon Graceffo, Luis Ortiz and I mentioned Ryne Nelson. I hope to get two picks out of this hash.

[The Feral Slasher]

We have reached the point in the draft where Liam Hendricks (cancer) and Aaron Ashby (shoulder injury) are being selected. For 2023 potential, Jonathan Schoop and Zach Plesac. Even in a redraft league, I would go for Bobby Miller or Ryne Nelson.

Five picks out. Actually, Bobby Miller looks like a possibility. He would come with options to 2028 though the last two years get expensive. Also, considering hometown boy Owen White. The next tier down looks rich--Addison Barger, Cade Cavelli, Gordon Graceffo, Luis Ortiz and I mentioned Ryne Nelson. I hope to get two picks out of this hash.

we are all on the edge of our seats....

[onejayhawk]

we are all on the edge of our seats....

Thanks.

Grichuck and Jasson Dominguez go off the board. I'm now in the hole with two of the best managers up and on deck.

For what it's worth, three of the players mentioned earlier in the thread--Friedl, Taveras, and Nolan Jones are in the top 10-12 options on the public board. On the pitching side, the top SP (not counting Montas) is José Quintana, who would be solid at this point, but it gets weak fast.

Update: Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones went back-to-back. I took Jackson Merrill while I had the chance.

I had Henderson, De La Cruz, and Hall from 2022. This is the prospect list as of now. Ranking is by Fangraph.
.

Rk	Name	Team	Age	Highest Level	Position	ETA	FV
1	Gunnar Henderson	BAL	21.6	MLB	SS	2023	65
6	Elly De La Cruz	CIN	21.1	AA	SS	2024	60
10	Jackson Merrill	SDP	19.8	A	SS	2026	60
14	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	20.9	A+	CF	2025	60
16	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	24.4	AAA	SP	2023	55
27	Curtis Mead	TBR	22.3	AAA	LF	2023	55
32	Owen White	TEX	23.5	AA	SP	2023	55
64	DL Hall	BAL	24.4	MLB	RP	2023	50
89	Ryne Nelson	ARI	25.1	MLB	SP	2023	50

Wyatt Langford Florida U - OF
.

Update: Slow going on the weekend. There is a run on $2 catchers.

Update: There are still decent SP prospects who should get the call this season. I took Owen White of the Rangers. Two rounds left.

Update: We are down to the last 20 picks out of 480. I am 4th up and will take a SP. For the last pick of the draft, we will see what is left.

Update: I too Ryne Nelson with my 29th pick. I expect him to at least make the team so I am planning on putting him on the roster until the inevitable injury hits. There are some usable SP who will be on WW at the start, eg José Quintana.

Update: Halfway through the final round we hit a snag. Two players are out for extended periods without leaving picks or a heads-up.

Final update: I closed the draft by taking Wyatt Langford currently at Florida U. I have three cheap option years then three more that escalate price.