Dynasty Breakout Prospects

[Teenwolf]

Suspended no one has mentioned Adael Amador, 19 yr old Rockies SS in Low A. Pretty highly ranked J2 signee from a few year ago who is showing a strong hit tool hitting .311 so far with an OBP over .400. 7 HRs and 7 SBs. Hit well in Rookie ball too.

Rockies hitting prospects are always so tough to evaluate because all of their minor league parks are launching pads.

You're right about Amador though. He's been making a lot of noise in the prospect world.

Generally, I'm looking to highlight and target prospects that can be acquired cheaply or free (available dynasty guys). My bias is towards full-season ball players, as the extra development time for short season guys requires a higher payoff to justify the investment. Also, easier to see age->level breakouts in full season ball than short season. So many tooled up prospects destroy SS ball, then hit a steep learning curve in full season.

Last week, someone in Dynasty spent $25 FAAB on a short season guy I liked, Junior Marin 2B KC. I would've considered him near the top of my list of available guys, but not for that much FAAB. Short season is too volatile to invest with that much confidence, for my taste anyway.

[Teenwolf]

Some great names coming up here! I love to see it!

So, I have a soft spot for huge power that comes with tons of walks and K's. Commonly referred to as '3 true outcomes' hitters. Especially in OBP leagues, the appeal of this profile is a Joey Gallo type final product if everything works out.

With this profile I'm looking for ISO and enough walks to turn a K-addled BA into an above average OBP. Next i look at BABIP and flyball rates to see how much it looks sustainable. I'm holding 3 of these types.

Heriberto Hernandez 1B/OF TB - 36.5% K, 11.8% BB. 22.5 yrs old in A+ ball, slightly old for level. .223/.330/.451 line, good for 112 wRC+. Bit of a letdown, but these power guys all seem to develop slower. Or maybe stall out, who knows.

Anthony Garcia OF NYY - I invested heavily in this guy this year (and Heriberto last year). Very slow to click. 38.9% K, 21.7% BB, with .209/.384/.424 good for 140 wRC+. 21.7 yrs old still in lo-A is a concern.

Allan Cerda OF CIN - 22.5 yrs old in A+ (3 weeks senior to Heriberto). I drafted him, cut him a few weeks ago and picked him back up after a hot stretch. 37.5% K, 16.5% BB. Hitting .224/.375/.472 good for a 141 wRC+.

All 3 guys very close across the board. Biggest difference is flyball rate, where Cerda leads the pack, Garcia next, Hernandez last. Heriberto also lags in BB rate. BABIP looks slightly less sustainable for Cerda given his flyball rates, but he also has the best power among 3 close ISO numbers.

Cerda is killing it. Since I posted this, he's raised his batting line up to .240/.390/.532. 2 HR tonight (12 HR in 53 games now), gets him a closer look. 25 of 41 hits are XBH.

More info on Cerda. I read a very compelling article in the offseason about Cerda's absurdly high flyball rate. They showed that Cerda's nearly 60% FB rate was elite, and extrapolated his approach by using HR/FB rates. It made me drool. They said something that stuck with me. "Lifting the ball is a skill." Something we rarely think about, but it's true. Look at Yandy Diaz, or countless other guys with big raw power but lacking the ability to lift the ball. Very Moneyball-esque to find an underutilized stat with real world application and exploit it.

So if you can still get in cheaply or freely, now is the time. I'm sure he gets a promotion to AA very soon.

[Teenwolf]

Matthew Lugo SS BOS - Only 21.1 yrs old, hitting .294/.350/.556 in Hi-A with fantastic rate stats. 16.5% K, 6.5% BB. Great production for such a young hitter. Also possesses 55 grade speed, 6/9 on SB attempts this year, 15/19 in double the PA last year. Probably end up a 5-10 SB guy. I slightly worry about the contact-oriented approach limiting OBP down the line, but 6.5% walk rate is only slightly below average.

Jorge Barrosa OF ARZ - Getting pushed hard for his age. Produced decently as a 20 yr old in A and Hi-A last year (100 wRC+ in 61 games, with 4 HR, 20/27 in SB with 17.6% K, 8.1% BB). High SB rates for a 55 runner! In 2022, got bumped to AA (only 21.3 yrs) and hitting well, .253/.352/.442 with 6 HR, 6/9 SB in 41 games. 16.6% K rate, 12.2% BB rate showing he's in control at the dish for a 21 yr old in his first AA exposure. Low BABIP (.277) shows he's been slightly unlucky as well. Could be a future 2-hole hitter, with some HR and SB ability. Great age to level prospect and as far as I can see, still totally slept on.

[Teenwolf]

Jordan Diaz 3B OAK - Hitting well in AA as a 21.8 yr old (.308/.351/.561 with 11 HR in 54 games). Previously viewed as a high ceiling bat with somewhat limited HR power, his ISO has gone up 3 years running while maintaining high BA and low K rates. Highest K rate over 5 levels is 15.9%. In AA, 14.6% K, 5.3% BB. Unlimited runway to grab a starting job in Oakland. Approach is too contact heavy to thrive in OBP leagues, but seems like a much better asset for BA leagues.

[Teenwolf]

I usually highlight guys that are available even in the deepest leagues, but I'm making an exception today.

Xavier Edwards 2B TB - Known for his superb plate skills (BB/K), great speed but poor SB success rate, and complete lack of power. A mixed bag, if you will. It's hard to carry a zero HR bat unless they're nabbing 30+ SB. So as Edwards has battled injury (79 gms in '21), his stock seems to have fallen a bit. There's also insane MI depth on TB.

BUT WAIT... after coming into this year with 1 solitary HR in 1087 PA, this year he's hit 3 HR in only 84 PA (20 gms) at AAA, . Still somehow only 22, I would target him in any league I could still get him cheaply due to prospect fatigue (not my share though!). AL only would be risky though, given his likelihood to be dealt.

Needs more work on SB, as he's 1/3 on attempts. But emerging power added to his profile is a huge development. Lots more time until he's fully baked, but I bet he gets a shot to play 2B for some team in the 2nd half. Currently hitting .333/.381/.526.

Mind you, small sample and no clue if any of the 3 HR are inside the park jobs.

Edit to add: today's HR was 363 ft off Max Meyer.

[The Feral Slasher]

I usually highlight guys that are available even in the deepest leagues, but I'm making an exception today.

Xavier Edwards 2B TB - Known for his superb plate skills (BB/K), great speed but poor SB success rate, and complete lack of power. A mixed bag, if you will. It's hard to carry a zero HR bat unless they're nabbing 30+ SB. So as Edwards has battled injury (79 gms in '21), his stock seems to have fallen a bit. There's also insane MI depth on TB.

BUT WAIT... after coming into this year with 1 solitary HR in 1087 PA, this year he's hit 3 HR in only 84 PA (20 gms) at AAA, . Still somehow only 22, I would target him in any league I could still get him cheaply due to prospect fatigue (not my share though!). AL only would be risky though, given his likelihood to be dealt.

Needs more work on SB, as he's 1/3 on attempts. But emerging power added to his profile is a huge development. Lots more time until he's fully baked, but I bet he gets a shot to play 2B for some team in the 2nd half. Currently hitting .333/.381/.526.

Mind you, small sample and no clue if any of the 3 HR are inside the park jobs.

Edit to add: today's HR was 363 ft off Max Meyer.

you had me at "great speed but poor SB success rate, and complete lack of power"

[Teenwolf]

you had me at "great speed but poor SB success rate, and complete lack of power"

LOL, the tools are there though!

How's this for a comp?

At 21, Jose Ramirez went 19/30 SB in AAA, with only 5 HR in 60 games. Including this power outburst, he had 12 HR in 1344 minor league PA. But the plate skills were already elite, with 8.5% K, 7.1% BB.

At 21, Xavier Edwards went 19/30 in SB in AA, 0 HR in 79 games, but with similarly elite plate skills, 11.3% K, 10% BB through his first 1173 PA.

This is why the power breakout at 22 years old gets me super pumped. This is a player type to target.

Minor league SB rates... Edwards 76/101 (75.2%)... Ramirez 101/145 (69.7%)

[Gregg]

For leagues that allow in-season prospect pickups (Dynasty mostly), or have mid-season farm drafts, I wanted to start a thread for out-of-nowhere breakout prospects. It's the thing I follow closest, so I thought I'd share who I'm picking up or dropping and some quick summaries.

Jacob Amaya SS LAD - Turns 24 in Sept. Obliterating AA (.297/.404/.601), but the most insane thing is the discipline metrics (11.4% K, 15.7% BB). Said to possess 55 grade speed that he rarely uses, but also recently read he is a superb defensive SS. Huge riser this year. Could be like last year's J. Miranda, only Miranda has putrid defense, so Amaya has a big leg up.

Lenyn Sosa SS CWS - Turns 23 next January, so quite young to be killing AA (.356/.409/.588). Relying more on BABIP than Amaya (.366 vs Amaya's .287). Contact first approach looks better for BA formats (12.6% K, 6.6% BB). No speed, and no word on defense.

I'll continue to add more later and welcome others to add breakout prospects of their own.

Lenyn Sosa was called up yesterday. He is available for FAAB bids next Wednesday night.

I plan to put a $6 bid on him. A lot will depend on how much hype he gets and if he starts out cold or hot. It is in my best interest for him to start out cold. ha because it is all about me.

[pitbull]

Lenyn Sosa was called up yesterday. He is available for FAAB bids next Wednesday night.

I plan to put a $6 bid on him. A lot will depend on how much hype he gets and if he starts out cold or hot. It is in my best interest for him to start out cold. ha because it is all about me.

I'm also going to bid on him but it a little more tricky. If I bid $1 and now I'm looking at possible keepers next year there will be a $5 increase. Plus other in the league might not and bid more. If he hits it seems like he has a path to playing FT. So many variables.

[Teenwolf]

Okay, a weird profile here.

Ryan Spikes 2B TB - On the surface, he has some flaws. 2B is pretty low on the defensive spectrum, and he's rated by Fangraphs as having below average speed. He's also a short guy, at 5'9.

Why are we interested? He's got a 60 grade hit tool ceiling from Fangraphs, and he's young for low A at 19.3 yrs old. I read that he was showing off premium exit velocities this spring, so I watch-listed him, then snagged him last weekend. Started the year hurt, but the power is actualizing now. After his 2 HR game today, that gives him 5 HR in 18 games, with a .310/.410/.592 line. It's somewhat BABIP inflated, but the .282 ISO shows that maybe some of the high BABIP is earned through high exit velocity.

So many of my favourite watchlist targets have been scooped up by other teams now, but Spikes makes a nice little flyer.