Dynasty Breakout Prospects

[Teenwolf]

For leagues that allow in-season prospect pickups (Dynasty mostly), or have mid-season farm drafts, I wanted to start a thread for out-of-nowhere breakout prospects. It's the thing I follow closest, so I thought I'd share who I'm picking up or dropping and some quick summaries.

Jacob Amaya SS LAD - Turns 24 in Sept. Obliterating AA (.297/.404/.601), but the most insane thing is the discipline metrics (11.4% K, 15.7% BB). Said to possess 55 grade speed that he rarely uses, but also recently read he is a superb defensive SS. Huge riser this year. Could be like last year's J. Miranda, only Miranda has putrid defense, so Amaya has a big leg up.

Lenyn Sosa SS CWS - Turns 23 next January, so quite young to be killing AA (.356/.409/.588). Relying more on BABIP than Amaya (.366 vs Amaya's .287). Contact first approach looks better for BA formats (12.6% K, 6.6% BB). No speed, and no word on defense.

I'll continue to add more later and welcome others to add breakout prospects of their own.

[Teenwolf]

Gordon Graceffo SP STL - Just turned 22 yrs old. Started the season in Hi-A, put up amazing numbers there. The durability is fantastic, 8 GS, 45.2 IP (5.7 IP/GS is great these days). In those 45.2 IP, 27 H, 56 K, 4 BB. 11 K/9, 0.8 BB/9. ERA was 0.99. FIP of 1.70, xFIP 2.74.

Moved up to AA. Debuted with 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB.

FB tops out at 100, other arsenal details are hazy. Scouting the statline, he looks like he's a control artist with room to grow.

[Teenwolf]

Ricky Tiedemann SP TOR - Super late pick this year in my Dynasty draft is blowing up. I heard in the spring that he was throwing much harder than previously advertised (previously sat 92, topped 94, now sits 95/6, tops 98), and he's only 19 until August, so it makes sense he bulked up.

Anyway, fangraphs has him 6th on the jays list, with the FB lagging behind the slider and changeup and the command, all 55 ceilings. I think he will be this year's Kyle Harrison, rising to a 50-100 range prospect on several lists. Made A ball look easy (30 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 whip, 44.5 K%, 11.8% BB).

Up to high-A and still dominating, in a small sample over 2 starts and 9.2 IP. Similar metrics though. Incredible for a 19 year old.

Big crush for me. I really want to see him live sometime this year, pitching for my local Vancouver Canadians.

[Teenwolf]

Well, I'm happy to provide a scouting report from a live look at Ricky Tiedemann, as he didn't disappoint. He threw 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. He's been limited to 5 IP max all season, and this game he only had something like 68 pitches through his 5 IP, so they're definitely babying his arm, which at 19 until August, I'm kind of okay with it. So he gets 100-120 IP this year before being expected to throw 150+ next year.

Fastball was sitting 94-95 and topping 96 the whole game, but there was a long bat-around 4th inning that he sat through for about 40 minutes, and was slightly slower in the 5th, sitting 93-94, topping out at 95. From a lefty, that velo is excellent. The FB played as nearly unhittable, with tons of swinging strikes, and I believe 5 of the 6 K's came on the FB. The other pitches were more of chase pitches that induced mostly weak contact but didn't get much swing and miss, only 2 whiffs that I counted not on fastballs.

He seems like he needs more time to refine his secondary pitches, but the FB is looking like a good primary weapon, and the command seems to have come along some from his early season wildness. After giving up 13 BB in 30 IP at low-A, he's only given up 2 BB in his first 14.2 IP at A+.

2nd game of the double-header got rained out, so I'm hoping I get to use my rain check to see another Tiedemann start next weekend!

[Teenwolf]

Bryan Ramos 3B CWS - This is a good age/level guy who's quietly put up slightly above average numbers at low-A last year (109 wRC+) and A+ this year (123 wRC+), and just turned 20. The contact rates are strong, 21.8 K%, 10.1 BB% in low-A and 16.4 K%, 7.4 BB% in A+. The power is graded as 60 raw from fangraphs, and he's tapping into it more. ISO up from .172 to .200 this year.

He popped up as a name in the spring for me after strangely appearing within the top 50 of the projected career WAR list on fangraphs among much more highly touted prospects. So I took a late stab, and I'm liking his progress so far. Could be a big riser this year.

[heyelander]

Andrew Painter SP PHI promoted to High-A. He's young, just turned 19, and I'm not sure where he would be showing up on Top-100 lists right now, but he's done nothing but improve his stock this season.

BP had him at 82 before the season started. Since then he's gone

38.2 IP, 69K, 17H, 16BB, 16.1 K/9, 4.31 K/BB

He's only pitching 3-4 innings a start right now and he's only been using 2 pitches so far, but his FB is mid-upper 90s and has good command of his slider. He also has a changeup and curveball but hasn't been using them so far this season.

[Roy Hobbs]

Taj Bradley is tearing up AA.

[Sour Masher]

Well, I'm happy to provide a scouting report from a live look at Ricky Tiedemann, as he didn't disappoint. He threw 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. He's been limited to 5 IP max all season, and this game he only had something like 68 pitches through his 5 IP, so they're definitely babying his arm, which at 19 until August, I'm kind of okay with it. So he gets 100-120 IP this year before being expected to throw 150+ next year.

Fastball was sitting 94-95 and topping 96 the whole game, but there was a long bat-around 4th inning that he sat through for about 40 minutes, and was slightly slower in the 5th, sitting 93-94, topping out at 95. From a lefty, that velo is excellent. The FB played as nearly unhittable, with tons of swinging strikes, and I believe 5 of the 6 K's came on the FB. The other pitches were more of chase pitches that induced mostly weak contact but didn't get much swing and miss, only 2 whiffs that I counted not on fastballs.

He seems like he needs more time to refine his secondary pitches, but the FB is looking like a good primary weapon, and the command seems to have come along some from his early season wildness. After giving up 13 BB in 30 IP at low-A, he's only given up 2 BB in his first 14.2 IP at A+.

2nd game of the double-header got rained out, so I'm hoping I get to use my rain check to see another Tiedemann start next weekend!

I just traded for him. I hope he keeps it up. He looks promising.

[Teenwolf]

Junior Tilien 2B NYM - I just picked him up last Sunday, and i like what i see. Turns 20 in September. Hurt for part of the year, he's hit the cover off the ball since returning. .304/.360/.638 in low-A, with 21.3% K, 8.0% BB rates. 6 HR in only 19 games, with strong plate skills is a good combo. I hope he sees some Hi-A time as a teenager.

Also, short-season leagues started up on Monday. I've only hung onto 2 guys at that level. Michael Bleis OF BOS and Junior Caminero 2B TB. I don't have any other guys that low on my watch list even, so hopefully within a week we can see a few statistical breakouts at the level to start tracking.

[Teenwolf]

I just traded for him. I hope he keeps it up. He looks promising.

Tiedemann threw another gem today. 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. 84 pitches.

I don't think you'll be disappointed. I'm sure whatever you paid, you might be paying 2-5x that if you waited until the offseason.

[Sour Masher]

Tiedemann threw another gem today. 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. 84 pitches.

I don't think you'll be disappointed. I'm sure whatever you paid, you might be paying 2-5x that if you waited until the offseason.

I gave what I thought was a surplus sell high arm--Mikolas. Then, of course, he threw a gem himself. Eventually, I will be okay--I just need Woodruff, Peralta, and Scherzer back, and I also have Ryu and Odorizzi out. I don't believe Mikolas can keep this up, and when all healthy, I have plenty of pitching. Unfortunately, right now, I don't have a lot of healthy arms. Woodfruff's numbness has me worried. Still, if needed, I think I can flip Tiedemann for a better/more trusted major league arm.

[Sour Masher]

Junior Tilien 2B NYM - I just picked him up last Sunday, and i like what i see. Turns 20 in September. Hurt for part of the year, he's hit the cover off the ball since returning. .304/.360/.638 in low-A, with 21.3% K, 8.0% BB rates. 6 HR in only 19 games, with strong plate skills is a good combo. I hope he sees some Hi-A time as a teenager.

Also, short-season leagues started up on Monday. I've only hung onto 2 guys at that level. Michael Bleis OF BOS and Junior Caminero 2B TB. I don't have any other guys that low on my watch list even, so hopefully within a week we can see a few statistical breakouts at the level to start tracking.

I snagged Junior. I traded his teammate Alex Ramirez for Corey Kluber and picked him up at the same time. He may be just as good or even better, given he at least has some pop, though Alex has gotten more love so far, cracking a couple of top 100 lists. I think he falls back off as he has been ice cold lately.

[Sour Masher]

Just scouting the stat line, two other young under the radar pitchers doing well are Dahian Santos of the Blue Jays (68ks in 36 IP with a 2.7 era and a 1.11 whip in A ball) and Coleman Crow of the Angels (3 era and 1.04 whip with a k per IP in AA).

[Teenwolf]

Some great names coming up here! I love to see it!

So, I have a soft spot for huge power that comes with tons of walks and K's. Commonly referred to as '3 true outcomes' hitters. Especially in OBP leagues, the appeal of this profile is a Joey Gallo type final product if everything works out.

With this profile I'm looking for ISO and enough walks to turn a K-addled BA into an above average OBP. Next i look at BABIP and flyball rates to see how much it looks sustainable. I'm holding 3 of these types.

Heriberto Hernandez 1B/OF TB - 36.5% K, 11.8% BB. 22.5 yrs old in A+ ball, slightly old for level. .223/.330/.451 line, good for 112 wRC+. Bit of a letdown, but these power guys all seem to develop slower. Or maybe stall out, who knows.

Anthony Garcia OF NYY - I invested heavily in this guy this year (and Heriberto last year). Very slow to click. 38.9% K, 21.7% BB, with .209/.384/.424 good for 140 wRC+. 21.7 yrs old still in lo-A is a concern.

Allan Cerda OF CIN - 22.5 yrs old in A+ (3 weeks senior to Heriberto). I drafted him, cut him a few weeks ago and picked him back up after a hot stretch. 37.5% K, 16.5% BB. Hitting .224/.375/.472 good for a 141 wRC+.

All 3 guys very close across the board. Biggest difference is flyball rate, where Cerda leads the pack, Garcia next, Hernandez last. Heriberto also lags in BB rate. BABIP looks slightly less sustainable for Cerda given his flyball rates, but he also has the best power among 3 close ISO numbers.

These guys must carry a high bust rate, but the payoff of a possible Gallo type is too great to resist, for me at least.

[Big Tymer]

Suspended no one has mentioned Adael Amador, 19 yr old Rockies SS in Low A. Pretty highly ranked J2 signee from a few year ago who is showing a strong hit tool hitting .311 so far with an OBP over .400. 7 HRs and 7 SBs. Hit well in Rookie ball too.