Worst Closing Landscape Ever?

[revo]

I've been playing fantasy baseball since 1993, and I don't ever remember a worse state of closers than this year.

From a fantasy baseball perspective, I don't know if that's a good or bad thing, as we're the supposed "experts," and that should give us a leg up with the dizzying collection of crap that are in positions to close, as opposed to the less-dedicated chum who would be lost in the soup.

That said, there are possibly only 8-10 closers who could be considered, at this time, to be "solid" or better. But we, the fantasy baseball aficionados, know that even among those 8-10, fully 25% will lose their jobs for some reason or another.

And even some good to great teams don't have clear-cut closing situations with just 2 weeks to go until the season starts -- the Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Rays, etc.

I'm so old I can remember when a "bad" closing situation in fantasy was landing a shlubby-but-stable-type as your 2nd closer, like a Joe Borowski, Rocky Biddle or Mike Williams. Back then, a discussion with leaguemates would be "wow, Borowski is your 2nd closer? That's a big hole." Now, you can end up with 2-3 Borowskis who have no set position and you may say to yourself, "ehh, I'll be OK with them."

I get it, the closer-by-committee has laid ruin to fantasy baseball. But regardless, this year is still abysmal.

[Big Tymer]

Indeed. I did 4 Draft Champions this year on NFBC and it wasn’t until my 4th draft that I decided to do a team build with a 3rd round closer (Hader) as before I could just never justify the early round pick and opportunity cost. In some of my drafts I would see Hader and Hendriks both go in Round 2. That’s just crazy. But it’s because the pool is so terrible and in DC with no pickups you need to leave the draft with your saves.

I think the better play in standard FAAB leagues is casting a wider net unless the prices of the few top guys are palatable. Makes me happy several of my leagues are Saves + Holds now…

[Gregg]

I've been playing fantasy baseball since 1993, and I don't ever remember a worse state of closers than this year.

From a fantasy baseball perspective, I don't know if that's a good or bad thing, as we're the supposed "experts," and that should give us a leg up with the dazzling collection of crap that is in positions to close, as opposed to the less-dedicated chum who would be lost in the soup.

That said, there are possibly only 8-10 closers who could be considered, at this time, to be "solid" or better. But we, the fantasy baseball aficionados, know that even among those 8-10, fully 25% will lose their jobs for some reason or another.

And even some good to great teams don't have clear-cut closing situations with just 2 weeks to go until the season starts -- the Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Rays, etc.

I'm so old I can remember when a "bad" closing situation in fantasy was landing a shlubby-but-stable-type as your 2nd closer, like a Joe Borowski, Rocky Biddle or Mike Williams. Back then, a discussion with leaguemates would be "wow, Borowski is your 2nd closer? That's a big hole." Now, you can end up with 2-3 guys who have no set position and you may say to yourself, "ehh, I'll be OK with them."

I get it, the closer-by-committee has laid ruin to fantasy baseball. But regardless, this year is still abysmal.

Which is why I traded for and will keep a $22X Liam Hendricks in my AL only 5x5. And will keep a $26B Edwin Diaz in my NL only 5x5.

I will look for a bargain in the auction or FAAB for fill in. But I should at least be mid pack with the ones I have going in.

[cleo]

The main problem that this has caused is many keeper leagues end up with getting a cheap setup guy on a FAAB for a few bucks that ends up in the closer role. Fast forward to the next year, and we have a number of teams that have their keeper lists populated with cheap closers. This causes massive inflation on true closers as well as pretty much all of the high end free agents. All of this makes it very hard to plan out your draft strategy. We have converted to a saves+holds method, but it really does not help much.

[Ken]

The main problem that this has caused is many keeper leagues end up with getting a cheap setup guy on a FAAB for a few bucks that ends up in the closer role. Fast forward to the next year, and we have a number of teams that have their keeper lists populated with cheap closers. This causes massive inflation on true closers as well as pretty much all of the high end free agents.

I'm curious, why? What you described would make me want to pay less for a closer not more. If you can get a cheap setup guy on FAAB instead, isn't that the play?

IMO inflation is spread across all positions, I don't think you can really look at it on a position by position basis because there is no requirement that $X be spent on that position (whereas there is a requirement that the full $ amount per team is allocated to all positions).

We have converted to a saves+holds method, but it really does not help much.

That's surprising. In the S+H leagues I'm in, closers prices have gone way down.

[cleo]

I'm curious, why? What you described would make me want to pay less for a closer not more. If you can get a cheap setup guy on FAAB instead, isn't that the play?

IMO inflation is spread across all positions, I don't think you can really look at it on a position by position basis because there is no requirement that $X be spent on that position (whereas there is a requirement that the full $ amount per team is allocated to all positions).



That's surprising. In the S+H leagues I'm in, closers prices have gone way down.

Like Revo pointed out, probably around 1/3 to half of all of these cheap 'closers' at the start of the season do not even end up with 10+ saves at seasons end.

I also forgot to add that we tried S+H for a few years and are now Saves count as 2 points and Holds are 1 point. So that puts back more value on the true closers.

[revo]

Indeed. I did 4 Draft Champions this year on NFBC and it wasn’t until my 4th draft that I decided to do a team build with a 3rd round closer (Hader) as before I could just never justify the early round pick and opportunity cost. In some of my drafts I would see Hader and Hendriks both go in Round 2. That’s just crazy. But it’s because the pool is so terrible and in DC with no pickups you need to leave the draft with your saves.

I think the better play in standard FAAB leagues is casting a wider net unless the prices of the few top guys are palatable. Makes me happy several of my leagues are Saves + Holds now…

Yup, it’s insanity to draft closers in the 2nd rd. In the DC league I’m in now, closers flew off the board in Rds 2-4. Rd 11 and guess who still doesn’t have one? Hellloooooo!

[Bene Futuis]

Yup, it’s insanity to draft closers in the 2nd rd. In the DC league I’m in now, closers flew off the board in Rds 2-4. Rd 11 and guess who still doesn’t have one? Hellloooooo!

I also do not like to draft closers early or pay top dollar for them, but this is definitely a perfect storm for "sure things" like Hader and Hendriks to go at a premium. Either you pay up or you fish the waiver wire (or nab a bunch of setup guys late). Hendriks just went for $22, Chapman for $23, and Kenly for $20 --- all too steep for my tastes, but I can see why. Sucks to be the guy whose "sure thing" a couple days ago was Will Smith, lol.

[revo]

It’s amusing to look at seasons in the mid-2000s and see all these closers with 25+ saves and 5.00+ ERAs and 1.40+ WHIPs. These guys wouldn’t last 3 weeks in the job with stats like that nowadays. Teams just don’t have the patience.

It was like managers just said “this guy’s our closer” as if he was the only pitcher on the team who could’ve ever possibly been used in save situations.

[revo]

I also do not like to draft closers early or pay top dollar for them, but this is definitely a perfect storm for "sure things" like Hader and Hendriks to go at a premium. Either you pay up or you fish the waiver wire (or nab a bunch of setup guys late). Hendriks just went for $22, Chapman for $23, and Kenly for $20 --- all too steep for my tastes, but I can see why. Sucks to be the guy whose "sure thing" a couple days ago was Will Smith, lol.

And the Jansen/Smith episode is another stake in the heart of closer “traditionalists.”

Here you have a guy in Smith who did exceptionally well last year andhelped his team win a World Series. And his payback? Losing his job because closers have become replaceable commodities.

[Bene Futuis]

The number of total saves league-wide has held pretty steady for some time at ~ 1,200. Each team gets about 40 saves per year, on average. Last year the Dodgers and Giants led the league with 56 saves while the D-Backs pulled up the rear with a measly 22 saves.

[Moonlight J]

Pitchers with at least 5 saves in a season, by season

Year▲	#Matching
1995	39
1996	44
1997	46
1998	53
1999	43
2000	50
2001	49
2002	46
2003	50
2004	45
2005	49
2006	49
2007	47
2008	48
2009	46
2010	48
2011	49
2012	49
2013	42
2014	49
2015	47
2016	53
2017	52
2018	59
2019	52
2020	31
2021	62

[Big Tymer]

Yup, it’s insanity to draft closers in the 2nd rd. In the DC league I’m in now, closers flew off the board in Rds 2-4. Rd 11 and guess who still doesn’t have one? Hellloooooo!

But I will say the Draft Champion I did with the Rd 3 Hader build was my favorite (attached):
NFBC Draft 4.jpg

[Ken]

Yup, it’s insanity to draft closers in the 2nd rd. In the DC league I’m in now, closers flew off the board in Rds 2-4. Rd 11 and guess who still doesn’t have one? Hellloooooo!

It's interesting that you say that. ADP should vary over time with closers. Early on in draft season, many closer roles were still unknown. Where was Kenley going? Where was Kennedy going to end up and would he take away another closers's job? What about Colome? Kimbrel?

So in that early draft market, there were fewer "knowns" and as such the top closers like Hader, Hendriks, Iglesias had more draft value, because the alternative was guessing and hoping that you didn't pick the team where Kenley or Colome or Kennedy signed. (Ask early Will Smith owners)

As the season draws nearer, and those fuzzy closer situations come into focus, those 2nd and 3rd tier closers have more stability and therefore your replacement value on your closer goes way up, making it worse to draft them earlier and better to wait.

So where you got your closers has different implications depending on WHEN you drafted. If you are still in round 11, sure, I agree with this approach. If you drafted months ago, probably not.

[revo]

It's interesting that you say that. ADP should vary over time with closers. Early on in draft season, many closer roles were still unknown. Where was Kenley going? Where was Kennedy going to end up and would he take away another closers's job? What about Colome? Kimbrel?

So in that early draft market, there were fewer "knowns" and as such the top closers like Hader, Hendriks, Iglesias had more draft value, because the alternative was guessing and hoping that you didn't pick the team where Kenley or Colome or Kennedy signed. (Ask early Will Smith owners)

As the season draws nearer, and those fuzzy closer situations come into focus, those 2nd and 3rd tier closers have more stability and therefore your replacement value on your closer goes way up, making it worse to draft them earlier and better to wait.

So where you got your closers has different implications depending on WHEN you drafted. If you are still in round 11, sure, I agree with this approach. If you drafted months ago, probably not.

Sure, but I'm talking about today, with what we know. And we know that only 8-10 closers are "secure." The other ~20 are a complete toss-up.