2k22 Chris Sale

[Bene Futuis]

Back for a full season after injury rehab, will we see the same Chris Sale as before? He's being drafted as about the 12th pitcher overall at or around the 48th pick. Fangraphs likes him as about a $18 pitcher in a 12 teamer mixed. Tough to draw many conclusions about his health or effectiveness after his ~47IP stint in 2021 but he came out of it healthy.

Maybe a lower IP projection of ~150IP but still averaging 10-12K/IP and an ERA in the lower 3s? What do you guys think?

[Gregg]

I would really like to have Sale. 12th pitcher overall seems a bit aggressive for a 12 team mixed.

He will surely be kept at $17 in out AL only 5x5 12 team. The only question is will there be a salary raise. If he were on my team I certainly would give him a year.

[Sour Masher]

I wouldn't touch him at his current ADP, and I am a bit surprised by it, but I do like it more than some (the problem with his ADP is that it aggregates those that think he is a top 10 arm and those that put him in the 20s...I am in the middle). Not because he could not end up being the 12th best arm, because he could, but because that seems to be his ceiling given the almost certainty that he will be on a inning cap and likely will be coddle for a good part of the year, and has some risk. I'd love to have him too, but I agree with Gregg--12th pitcher off the board is too rich for my blood in a mixed league. Now, once 20 or so guys are gone, or maybe earlier if your team looks like it needs a home run pick or auction acquisition to compete, I can see going for Sale. Or if you care more about ratios than overall counting stats, than a pick in the teens makes a lot of sense. And in a keeper league, I can see spending the extra buck or two, because he should be even better in 2023, if 2022 goes as planned.

But I don't prefer him to guys I think will get more innings, like

[revo]

He's only 32 but it feels like he's been around for 20 years. It's kind of amazing that through all his years of dominance (2012-2018) he didn't win the Cy Young at all (7 straight Top 6 finishes, but no award).

I don't think we'll see 30-32 starts from him any longer. I would guess his ceiling is 25-27 starts, or 140-170 IP, which is why I think SP12 is too high for him.