Holliday/Alex Gonzalez/Garret Jones for Stubbs

[overkill94]

12-team NL-only keeper league (OBP)

Very similar to the trade offer I posted a couple days ago, but obviously the stakes have been raised. I'm still in 2nd place, need help in hitting categories. Stubbs is at $15 until 2013 while all the players coming back would be unkeepable. I'm inclined to decline the deal mostly because Stubbs is my main steals guy and he's the one guy I'd prefer not to trade. The question now becomes, what kind of offer can I pull off with the following trade chips:

Espinosa - $5/2 years left on his contract
Sands - $4/2
Bonifacio - $1/1
Jay - $1/2
Stubbs - $15/2 (not going to trade him unless I get a ridiculous haul back)
Blanks - $1/2+
F. Martinez - $5/2

Anibal Sanchez - $1/1
James McDonald - $1/1
Axford - $10/1
Street - $12/1
Jordan Lyles - $5/2
Johan Santana - $11/2
Cueto - $7/2
Lohse - $10/2 (not an ideal dump candidate though)
Vogelsong - $10/2 (ditto)
Kuo - $1/1 (if he gets over his case of the yips)

plus the following minor leaguers at $5 each - Jedd Gyorko, AJ Pollock, and Brad Lincoln

[bweiser831]

who is gonzalez replacing in your lineup? i'm a big fan of stubbs, but i think i'd trade him straight up for holliday if i am not going to be crushed by the loss of steals. tough call.

[overkill94]

Gonzalez and Jones would replace Jay Gibbons and Eric Patterson (yes, I have holes). After Stubbs, my next highest steal guy is Espinosa with 6 - I really don't want to trade him. Plus, Stubbs is already a top-10 NL-only players himself, I wouldn't trade him straight-up for Holliday, especially with the keeper value factored in.

Any ideas on other trade packages I could put together?

[chancellor]

I'd just ask the owner who has Holliday - let him know politely that you can't deal Stubbs as you'd lose massive points in steals.

[overkill94]

I'd just ask the owner who has Holliday - let him know politely that you can't deal Stubbs as you'd lose massive points in steals.

Just swung a trade for Carlos Pena instead (sent Johan the other way) so I don't really have the cap space to take on Holliday right now. I might make another smaller deal including some of the marginal keepers, but I don't know if I'll make another big splash.

[bweiser831]

Gonzalez and Jones would replace Jay Gibbons and Eric Patterson (yes, I have holes). After Stubbs, my next highest steal guy is Espinosa with 6 - I really don't want to trade him. Plus, Stubbs is already a top-10 NL-only players himself, I wouldn't trade him straight-up for Holliday, especially with the keeper value factored in.

Any ideas on other trade packages I could put together?

Seriously? Top 10? Top 10 OF maybe and even then I'm not sure. The low BA and high Ks ... I'm always worried about finding out he's going to lose playing time or lose the leadoff spot in the order.

[overkill94]

Seriously? Top 10? Top 10 OF maybe and even then I'm not sure. The low BA and high Ks ... I'm always worried about finding out he's going to lose playing time or lose the leadoff spot in the order.

Going strictly by the numbers he's the #9 hitter in the NL (should've specified I meant hitters only). The strikeouts are something you have to live with, but even with his relatively low BA, he still has a respectable .345 OBP to complement his 18 steals (out of 20 attempts), 9 homers, 48 runs (tops in the league). He's a more valuable fantasy player than in real life, but few in the game can match his power/speed combo.

[joncarlos]

I guess my issue with the deal is that Garrett Jones and Alex Gonzalez are kinda bad. GJ is losing playing time to Xavier Paul and it's looking more and more like 2010 was his real ability. Gonzo is fine for a shortstop because he plays and has a little pop, but his OBP is atrocious. Holliday for Stubbs is a nice upgrade for you (even given the loss of steals). I guess the problem is that while Stubbs is a very good fantasy player (given his glove, I'm not so sure he's more valuable in roto than MLB, by the way) he's not a $20 profit guy at $15, so it's hard to get 2 studs for him. Getting Pena for a non-producer helps a lot more. I like Lyles but if you can get a haul for him I'd explore that.

[overkill94]

Yeah, all along I had hoped to make deals using players not currently helping my team, so trading Johan was ideal. Obviously I'd rather have Holliday than Pena, but it still addresses my needs and is a huge upgrade over the empty slot Jay Gibbons had been filling.

Lyles is another guy who I don't think will provide much value for me this year but should bring back a decent haul. Looking over some of the possible dumping teams' rosters, the following players would still keep me under the cap:

Corey Hart
Stephen Drew
Aramis Ramirez
Hunter Pence
Chipper Jones
Jimmy Rollins

Would any of these guys make sense in a straight-up deal for Lyles?

[chancellor]

Hart or Pence ought to be big help, especially if you're short in the OF.

[overkill94]

Yeah, I think I'll put out a feeler on Pence, see if I can do a 1-for-1, might throw in someone like FMart or Blanks if necessary.

Turns out the Holliday owner ended up making the following trade:

Holliday ($46/2)
G. Jones ($17/2)
A. Gonzalez ($15/2)
Arroyo ($10/0)
Motte ($4/1)

for

Andres Torres ($10/1)
Stauffer ($14/2)
Javier Lopez ($10/2)

Am I right to be insulted that he demanded Stubbs ($15/2) from me but then ended up settling for this package? Torres is a decent keeper at $10, but he was something of a fluke last year. I don't think Stauffer is a keeper at $14 either.

[GladHeAteHer]

No reason to be insulted. Maybe the owner in question was going to be forced to cut Jones last night because of another he had coming up. Also, he probably has 2 other guys who are coming up and has cap issues. He also might have thought that Arroyo was having a horrible year and might be a huge Stauffer fan. Between the upgrade from Arroyo to Stauffer, the fact that Torres is keepable and Stauffer might also be, along with the fact that he cut salary the deal might look really good to him.

Oh, and I was going to come back at you for Espinosa, but was away from my computer. When I got back you had already traded for Pena, unfortunately.

[overkill94]

Wow, you have a lot of insight

[bweiser831]

I don't like the trade he made. To me, he should get one definite keeper. A guy who he can start to rebuild around. Don't see it on Torres or Stauffer. Like both guys, but not in exchange for Holliday.

I wouldn't be insulted, but I would definitely shoot him back an e-mail that says you think you're offers were significantly better.