Judge Jude's 2021 Anatomy of an Auction

[Judge Jude]

a couple more swipes today, the man-crush intensifies.

but in a race like this, I can be kingmaker!

in this scenario, on the other end, I always pay the freight because, as we know, FLAGS FLY FOREVER. some of these contenders, not so much.

maybe I'll check back on May 15th listing the tastiest bait for each contender.
Turner now has 7 SB.
all 6 contenders have between 13 and 22 total.

ONROTO:
Spin: Turner notched his 10th multi-hit effort of the 2021 season and also recorded his 27th career multi-steal performance. We're a long ways from the finish line, with five months remaining in the regular season, but Turner is on pace to record a 40-homer, 40-steal campaign. The 27-year-old fantasy superstar is hitting .308/.351/.549 with 12 runs scored, six homers, 10 RBI and seven stolen bases across 97 plate appearances.

[Judge Jude]

was going to post something like this on May 15, but the drumbeats of trade talks are in the wind already so....

currently there are FIVE teams within 12 points of the lead, and several other within 23 points and projected to place a lot closer. I see 8 teams with a realistic shot at the title, out of 11, in some cases assuming they really go for it.

CLIFF NOTES: I likely move Nola 32 and a mid-priced bat (see below) for a cheap SP. ideally, also move Blackmon 32 for something else. you may prefer to just check out the "targets" and suggest your favorites, and skip the rest. this got unwieldy, lol


TEAM 10

Titles - 4, but in 1988-89 and 1995-96

Owner profile - lost his Rotisserie skills mojo a quarter-century ago but enjoys the camaraderie. retired, and just got another grandkid. liable to be overly protective of his cubs (not the Chicago kind).

Team weaknesses - projections have him placing 9th in AVG, but silly part-time AVGs for Narvaez and JD Davis have masked that so far. maybe could use another closer, but I can't help him there.

Best targets - Carlson 5-S2 (would be 5-S1 in 2022 and could be 10 in 2023 and 5 in 2024 before FA); Burnes 20-S2, Flaherty (would be 15-O in 2022), Gallen 10-S1, farmhand Max Meyer.

Possible angles - back up the U-Haul for Carlson, offering Blackmon 32, an INF upgrade, and maybe even Nola for, say, Carlson, a Pagan 6-S2 as a possible 2022 closer, and a bum. his hitting and pitching both would get upgraded, but Carlson may be untouchable.
alternative is to get a quality arm for Nola, and he wins an offensive upgrade with one of my "Janis Ian Trio" - Gregorius 17, Segura 17, Pollock 17 - for a bum. or even Nola for Meyer and a bum.

TEAM 12

Titles: 2 - the last two, in 2018-19 - partly on the backs of me trading him farmhands Albies, Acuna, and Buehler. had not won in 20+ tries before that.

Owner profile - somewhat inscrutable but he likes to make deals.

Team weaknesses - fairly well-balanced but could use more Ks. ok, really a little more of anything.

Best targets - WSmith 5-S1 the catcher best of a thin lot on offense. Darvish 5-S1, Eflin 10-S2, farmhand Josiah Gray who might pitch 50 Dodgers IP and get to 5-S1 next year.

Possible angles - Darvish carried him to a final-day, 0.5-point win in 2019, but this owner is NOT sentimental. Nola and multiple bats enough? not sure, but Blackmon 32 is raking this month which helps.

TEAM 11

Titles: 3, all since 2003 but not in 7 or 8 years.

Owner profile - pretty moderate. not always easy to deal with, but he's willing to pounce in the right spot.

Team weaknesses - also need a closer but... let's move on. pretty balanced otherwise, with strong SPs. Cain 14 could intrigue if he starts running again.

Best targets - Alonso and Robles each are 5-S1 but Alonso will be untouchable for this Mets fan and Robles - hard to figure out. key items seem to be Thor 16-S2 and PLopez 1-S1 (so could be 6 in 2022 and 11 in 2023).

Possible angles - we're already playing footsie along the lines of Nola and a "Seventeen" for PLopez and a bum.

TEAM 3

Titles - 3, last only a few years ago.

Owner profile - Known as being almost impossible to deal with - and I almost never do. nice guy, but admits he has no interest in "a deal that helps both teams."

Team weaknesses - plenty so far, off his slow start. but projects to be fine except in starting pitching, where he needs at least one more good arm.

Best targets - Soto (would be 15-O in 2022 and then out), Bohm 5-S2, Yelich 20-S1. Bart, SHoward, SSanchez on the farm.

Possible angles - Nola and an "Ian" for Bohm and a P bum likely not enough for this finicky owner. he once dealt his beloved Heyward - at the very peak of his powers at age 20 and cheap - for two big bats and nosed me out for a title. couldn't blame either owner for the swap, although of course Heyward soon cratered.

TEAM 8

Titles - 4, last just a couple of years ago

Owner profile - took him almost 20 years to get his first title because he loves to contend every year, so is reluctant to make a dump trade of future assets. but he has winced and done it before.

Team weaknesses - projections hate this team, but he always contends and he is contending so far. obvious weakness for now is last in RBI and shaky in AVG.

Best targets - Musgrove 6-S1, SP Rogers 3-S2, Riley 5-S1, Swanson 14-S2, Ke-Bryan Hayes 5-S2, Chisholm 5-S2, farmhand Mitchell.

Possible angles - not sure what he thinks he needs (which is everything). love this Rogers (he has both) and like Swanson even after a bad start. he'll never move Hayes or Chisholm - too sentimental with farmhands. doubt he makes an early deal, wants to see how things shake out probably.

TEAM 5

Titles - 3, all in recent years

Owner profile - probably the league's funniest owner (I once saw him do standup at an amateur night at a comedy club, which also tells you he has stones). another wheeler-dealer, occasionally to a fault.

Team weaknesses - projections say he badly needs a power bat or two (and a closer).

Best targets - CWalker 5-S1, Hoerner 5-S2, Woodruff 11-S1, Fried 3-S1, DeSclafani 1-S2

Possible angles - he acquired Hoerner in a rare 2020 trade (we didn't have a season) and is wed to no one. ok maybe Fried. RED FLAG: I own his "June" farm pick, which this year is July 15. I'll have the first pick, but my lean is to not helping this team move me backwards in the pecking order.

TEAM 9

Titles - none, but once had a perfect 60 hitting points and 101.5 points in 12-team 5x5 and finished 2nd (sorry, buddy!).

Owner profile - low-key, friendly, loves the game. that one time 16 years ago is the only time he ever sold his soul. always finishes middle of the pack. has a co-owner, with all the passive/aggressive that can entail.

Team weaknesses - balanced so far, but projects to last in SB and a stick and an arm short of having a chance.

Best targets - Lux 5-S2, Yastrzemski 10-S1, Gallegos 1-S2, farm NGonzales and Gore.

Possible angles - he may think his pitching is ok (um), so if I move Nola and an "Ian" for a pitcher, maybe I move Blackmon here for a prospect or pick.

[joncarlos]

I still believe in Lux. Of all the guys that might be attainable he's probably my favorite. Will Smith is fine and maybe in 2022 with a DH the Dodgers let him get closer to 110-120 games. Bohm would be awesome but seems unlikely. I don't have a lot of faith in Walker or Hoerner as cornerstone guys. I'm always hesitant to build around pitching if I can avoid it. I'd be trying to do a smaller deal with another team to scare the Bohm or Hayes owners into doing something with you, but it doesn't sound likely to work.

[Judge Jude]

have zeroed in on Team 8 - and on Jazz Chisholm.

5-S2 contract, would be 5-S1 in 2022, and either 5-O in 2023 and out or - presumably - 10-L2 in 2022 with a manageable 15-L1 option in 2023 and out.

TTurner 44 for Chisholm - he actually wins the deal this year.

and he's on a tear that has given him a lead of:
80 74.5 69.5 67.5 66 65 59 56 (and 3 dregs including moi)

and if that looks fairly competitive, this is the biggest margin all year for a leader over 2nd and 3rd by a TON

of course, he's not going to give me Chisholm for TTurner straight up. but as a rebuilder, that's ok.
most obvious add is I give SP Nola 32 for P bum of his choice.

a nice H/P points gain combo - but would anyone be content with that?

this contender's worst category is RBI.
add Blackmon 32 - ahead of the summer heat in Denver for another bum - and is that enough?

if pushed, I could add a Segura 17 for a lame duck, listless BAnderson - and seek a modest future farm pick.

how far would you be willing to go? is Chisholm all that Jazz, for sure?

[harmon]

of course, he's not going to give me Chisholm for TTurner straight up.

Are you sure about that? Turner has to be super attractive for a first place team. If you haven't tried it, I wouldn't be embarrassed to ask.

Turner is also keepable at 44 for next year.

[Judge Jude]

well, the owners in this league can be very difficult to deal with.

one of the reasons I have won sometimes has been that I was willing to make that sort of a deal (with Chisholm's hot streak and uniquely cheap and long contract, even I would want more).

I can only keep 11 for next year's freeze list. I have quite a few SP candidates (active + IL), so for example my adding Nola for not much back doesn't impact my 2022 plans. I haven't built to where I'm looking for 3 or 4 pieces.

this owner basically replied, "feel free to outline your proposal."

he noted he wasn't feeling well, but is listening. I was a little testy in my response, noting that he is the one fighting for a pennant yet I came to him. gave him the outline of Turner, hitter, SP for Chisholm and spare parts.

yet he wants me to, as I noted, "add the whipped cream, the sprinkles, and a spoon so you just have to take in your treat in one smooth maneuver."

every year, contenders just sit on their hands and watch other owners add the key pieces and take them out down the stretch. it's a mystery to me.

in our last season (2019), I proposed to pretty much back up my entire dump truck for Tatis Jr. in this same contract.
the other owner - who has never won - told me he couldn't do it because "I can't win."
he was right; he lost the pennant by 0.5 points (!).

why play, if you won't ever go for it?

[Art Vandelay]

well, the owners in this league can be very difficult to deal with.

one of the reasons I have won sometimes has been that I was willing to make that sort of a deal (with Chisholm's hot streak and uniquely cheap and long contract, even I would want more).

I can only keep 11 for next year's freeze list. I have quite a few SP candidates (active + IL), so for example my adding Nola for not much back doesn't impact my 2022 plans. I haven't built to where I'm looking for 3 or 4 pieces.

this owner basically replied, "feel free to outline your proposal."

he noted he wasn't feeling well, but is listening. I was a little testy in my response, noting that he is the one fighting for a pennant yet I came to him. gave him the outline of Turner, hitter, SP for Chisholm and spare parts.

yet he wants me to, as I noted, "add the whipped cream, the sprinkles, and a spoon so you just have to take in your treat in one smooth maneuver."

every year, contenders just sit on their hands and watch other owners add the key pieces and take them out down the stretch. it's a mystery to me.

in our last season (2019), I proposed to pretty much back up my entire dump truck for Tatis Jr. in this same contract.
the other owner - who has never won - told me he couldn't do it because "I can't win."
he was right; he lost the pennant by 0.5 points (!).

why play, if you won't ever go for it?

Flags fly forever

[Judge Jude]

the Chisholm owner gets this from me last night:


"you're now in first place.
even while Jazz is hot, Trea Turner is the best player in the WNRL and keepable at 44.
imagine getting Turner AND upgrades on offense and/or starting pitching for all that Jazz."

he responds:

"fire away. I'm ready to deal if you want to talk"

so I have identified the stud I am willing to surrender, and the bargain that I want.
I even offer to boost his SP and offense.

and STILL I am supposed to supply every. single. name.

it's like every one of these aging owners has decided that they should be the one precious owner who just sits back and wants any other owner to put in 100 pct of the effort.

even though as I noted, he has a lot more at stake than he does. I'm doomed in 2021 and in great shape in 2022.
he is on a hot streak but still has many teams to try to fend off. but if he makes a preemptive strike, he can induce some white flags and "shorten the playing field" considerably.

I think Jazz is the exact piece I want, or I'd be "hate-trading" with someone else.


but soon enough I'll start dipping my toes in other waters again. no other owner has been very proactive, either.

p.s. this is the same owner who bitterly whined about my late-May 2017 deal where I got an overpriced Harper and a lame duck Suarez basically for what he called "just a couple of farmhands."

the rest of the league surrendered, and I coasted home.
my trade partner - who got farmhands Acuna and Buehler in the deal - leveraged them into his first 2 titles in 2018 and 2019.

flags fly forever, indeed.

[tinitoys]

Ask for Rogers and jazz for trea and gray, let’s see if he’s willing to do that deal

[Judge Jude]

well, to this owner's credit, he actually CALLED me. like on a phone.

(why yes, 6 of the other 11 owners in the league ARE retired and the youngest owner is about 55.)

apparently, he's afraid to ask for too much and then offend another owners. and frankly, that may be the case for most of them.

we've all known each other for at least 20 years, and I am not aware of any issues (one owner went on a mini-rant against a tech-challenged rival during a break in our Zoom auction this year - not knowing we all could hear him. having someone gripe about someone else being a dolt when it comes to tech, while that griper is being a dolt by broadcasting it to all was - well, kind of amusing).

tini, that is an interesting approach. this owner is notoriously "clingy" with his bargains, so even changing his mind on Jazz alone has been a chore. he loves him some Rogers.

I did mention that Nola will be a lot more valuable than Rogers in September, when the latter might be shut down with the Marlins out of contention. feels like a better fit for both of us (I really like SGray at 16 for the next 2 years whereas Nola at 32 is awfully pricey. we have no in-season salary cap so no concern there).

I thought me might ask for Nola and a bat, in which case I'd ask for something else in return like a good prospect or farm pick.

since he felt bad for not pulling his weight in trade talks, he very tentatively mentioned Blackman - who is 32 units.

Blackmon hit about .200 in April but has rebounded in May, and this guy watches like 12 hours of baseball a day so he would have noticed.

since Blackmon turns 35 in July, he has no keeper value no matter how much he heats up. and I don't see him as the centerpiece of any trade this year.

so am tempted to just move TTurner 44 and Blackmon 32 for Jazz 5 and a bum like.... Tauchman, AStevenson, or AYoung. probably the latter, since it would then allow me to waive Vogelbach for returning Solano without using a waiver move.

this also would allow me to net another piece for Nola and Segura or Gregorius separately....

[Judge Jude]

so this same owner has Pirates 3B stud prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes at the same 5-S2 contract as Chisholm.

Hayes is about to return, but off a wrist injury, so who knows re 2021 power.

would you rather chase Chisholm, or Hayes, in a swap giving up TTurner?

[tinitoys]

Jazz by a mile

[harmon]

Jazz by a mile

Whoa, i don't know about that, not by a mile anyway. Both nice pieces.

[Sharky]

Chisholm. But if you can get Rogers, find a way to do that too. He’s a beast.

And I agree that Trea is keepable at 44. So Trea and Nola should be a good start.

[Judge Jude]

he won't yield Jazz and MIA Rogers in same deal - it took him like 20 years to start dealing any bargains at all, really