RJEL - Putsy

[Ken]

Should have used my draft room

[TranaGreg]

I didn't find the 3B dropoff excessive. Pre-auction inflated values (from Rotolab, tuned to steep Stars and Scrubs which is what RJEL is; what they went for in parentheses): Ramirez - $51 ($52), Machado - $36 ($43), Rendon - $35 ($40), Donaldson - $27 ($30), Arenado - $21 ($32), Turner - $18 ($23), Escobar - $17 ($13), Segura - $14 ($12). Arenado is the outlier in terms of predicted vs. spent, and that's attributable to the idea that he's gonna regress not to 2020, but rather to 2019 or before, numbers). You could get one at nearly any tier you needed. And 13 of 18 GMs going in already had a 3B (though 10 needed a CI - all that not accounting for position flexibility). Problem is that by the time you get down to Escobar or Segura (or my Castro), inflation has pretty much gone away, so you're not really getting any _savings_ in the true sense, but you are getting value for your auction $. Take those inflated values and knock them down by 33% or so for those two, and their purchase price is about at true value. I didn't see any particular position that had steep dropoffs - though the pickings overall at 2B were pretty thin going in.

good assessment - for me going from Arenado to Turner was a step down that I didn't want to take ... maybe I'm tainted tho by having Turner a couple of years where he was kind of meh ...

[TranaGreg]

Should have used my draft room

yeah, well, I saw your SQL ...

[TranaGreg]

fwiw, last year I spent most of my money on Verlander, Schwarber, DeJong, Votto, and Paxton. I spent $140 on $11 worth of value. I'm not saying that's at all representative, and actually I don't even know what my point is now, I just wanted to complain after thinking about it again.

that really sucks. I hope that doesn't happen to you this year.

ummm ... not really ...

[Ken]

yeah, well, I saw your SQL ...

Haha, touche sir -- you have a better implementation?

[TranaGreg]

Haha, touche sir -- you have a better implementation?

my coding days are long behind me ... I tried to follow but would need some dedicated time ... and probably a whiteboard.

I probably still could come up with the data model tho, fourth normal form & all that.

[Ken]

my coding days are long behind me ... I tried to follow but would need some dedicated time ... and probably a whiteboard.

I probably still could come up with the data model tho, fourth normal form & all that.

Nice, I bet you could pick it up again quickly. The app came together nicely. That algorithm that I was originally struggling with is solved, it takes less than a second now for all cases.

We're running 1 auction tonight and one on Saturday.

Sorry to dertail the thread, here, let me get it back on track:

good assessment - for me going from Arenado to Turner was a step down that I didn't want to take ... maybe I'm tainted tho by having Turner a couple of years where he was kind of meh ...

Justin Turner's career has been interesting. He was definitely a late bloomer, went from mediocre "just a guy", to a solid AVG contributer and put up some counting stats too. Seems like the "professional hitter" types tend to age more gracefully than others, his game doesn't rely on athleticism.

[The Feral Slasher]

I didn't find the 3B dropoff excessive. Pre-auction inflated values (from Rotolab, tuned to steep Stars and Scrubs which is what RJEL is; what they went for in parentheses): Ramirez - $51 ($52), Machado - $36 ($43), Rendon - $35 ($40), Donaldson - $27 ($30), Arenado - $21 ($32), Turner - $18 ($23), Escobar - $17 ($13), Segura - $14 ($12). Arenado is the outlier in terms of predicted vs. spent, and that's attributable to the idea that he's gonna regress not to 2020, but rather to 2019 or before, numbers). You could get one at nearly any tier you needed. And 13 of 18 GMs going in already had a 3B (though 10 needed a CI - all that not accounting for position flexibility). Problem is that by the time you get down to Escobar or Segura (or my Castro), inflation has pretty much gone away, so you're not really getting any _savings_ in the true sense, but you are getting value for your auction $. Take those inflated values and knock them down by 33% or so for those two, and their purchase price is about at true value. I didn't see any particular position that had steep dropoffs - though the pickings overall at 2B were pretty thin going in.

Well I feel better about buying Escobar anyway

[TranaGreg]

...
Justin Turner's career has been interesting. He was definitely a late bloomer, went from mediocre "just a guy", to a solid AVG contributer and put up some counting stats too. Seems like the "professional hitter" types tend to age more gracefully than others, his game doesn't rely on athleticism.

Interesting ... I was at a Dodgers-Jays game in '16 that I got to early to watch BP (hey the Dodgers don't get up to Canada every year!) and I was struck by how Turner approached it - he was lacing line drives everywhere, and clearly very systematically ... made me realize he was never going to develop a lot of power because he didn't want to. So many guys use BP (esp in a park they haven't been to in a while) by cranking it, but he just didn't want to.

Lots can be learned about hitters by watching how they approach BP.

[bryanbutler]

Interesting ... I was at a Dodgers-Jays game in '16 that I got to early to watch BP (hey the Dodgers don't get up to Canada every year!) and I was struck by how Turner approached it - he was lacing line drives everywhere, and clearly very systematically ... made me realize he was never going to develop a lot of power because he didn't want to. So many guys use BP (esp in a park they haven't been to in a while) by cranking it, but he just didn't want to.

Lots can be learned about hitters by watching how they approach BP.

Agreed. When I was living in Pasadena we used to go to a lot of Dodger and Angel games, and we'd typically go early. Not expressly to watch BP, it was more to get more drinking in, but BP was going on. I remember one time the Phillies were in town, and during warmups, most of the guys were stretching, running around, etc., but not John Kruk. He was just lying on the grass by 3B. Just lying there, doing pretty much nothing. The entire time. One of the funnier baseball moments I've seen .

[Gregg]

Agreed. When I was living in Pasadena we used to go to a lot of Dodger and Angel games, and we'd typically go early. Not expressly to watch BP, it was more to get more drinking in, but BP was going on. I remember one time the Phillies were in town, and during warmups, most of the guys were stretching, running around, etc., but not John Kruk. He was just lying on the grass by 3B. Just lying there, doing pretty much nothing. The entire time. One of the funnier baseball moments I've seen .

Was he enjoying a cig?

[Erik]

Agreed. When I was living in Pasadena we used to go to a lot of Dodger and Angel games, and we'd typically go early. Not expressly to watch BP, it was more to get more drinking in, but BP was going on. I remember one time the Phillies were in town, and during warmups, most of the guys were stretching, running around, etc., but not John Kruk. He was just lying on the grass by 3B. Just lying there, doing pretty much nothing. The entire time. One of the funnier baseball moments I've seen .

There's a reason why he said "lady, I'm not an athlete, I'm a baseball player."

[mjl]

that really sucks. I hope that doesn't happen to you this year.

ummm ... not really ...

well, other than Mondesi, Paxton, Tatis, and Ketel Marte, my team made it through the first week uninjured, so everything looks pretty great so far.

[bryanbutler]

well, other than Mondesi, Paxton, Tatis, and Ketel Marte, my team made it through the first week uninjured, so everything looks pretty great so far.

Painful (pardon the pun). My COVID-Bell, and longer than expected Springer and Lewis pale by comparison. The "risk" part of my injury risks is sure panning out, though admittedly there was no news about Bell's COVID-positivity...

[GwynnInTheHall]

Explains why my team is even still relevant........