2k21: Tyler O'Neill

[joncarlos]

The Cards traded away Dexter Fowler and so it seems like they've opened up a full-time outfield spot for O'Neill, along with Bader in CF and Dylan Carlson in the other corner. Justin Williams is out of options and probably makes the roster as a 4th outfielder. Williams is a lefty and O'Neill a righty, so I guess you never know... but the bigger threat to O'Neill's playing time is probably Tommy Edman, who could slide into the outfield when Matt Carpenter plays second base.

Last year O'Neill hit 173/261/360 in 157 PAs, but he did cut his K% from 35.1% in 2019 to "only" 27.4% last year, and he also had a solid 9.6% walk rate. I think he can improve on that .189 BABIP. He also hit 7 bombs and stole 3 bases in 50 games.

BATx Projection: 566pa, 230/300/422, 23 HR, 7 SB, 68 R, 70 RBI
ATC Projection: 439pa, 223/291/417, 19 HR, 6 SB, 56 R, 57 RBI

Oh, by the way, O'Neill's sprint speed last year was in the 99th percentile. Too bad his exit velo was only in the 36th percentile. Kinda weird for a guy who goes 5'11 and 200 pounds. His xBA was only in the 6th percentlie, so he did deserve some of that low BABIP (hence the low AVG projections), but his infield fly ball rate wasn't crazy and he didn't hit a ton of fly balls or have a crazy launch angle. I think I'm closer to his BatX projection, maybe even a little more bullish on the AVG and speed but a little less bullish on the playing time.

[chancellor]

He's going to have to really suck at the plate to get replaced - that GG last year is legit, and the Cards love his defense, so I'd err on the side of higher PA's and more toward the BATx projection. I like him as a near-endgame play; he has real power locked in there somewhere, and as you've noted, a good bit of speed, too.

[Sour Masher]

Given is body builder background, I am shocked by his speed and exit velocity. I don't get that exit velocity from a guy who everyone assumes would have beastly power.

[joncarlos]

Given is body builder background, I am shocked by his speed and exit velocity. I don't get that exit velocity from a guy who everyone assumes would have beastly power.

I did use average EV. But even his max was only 107.4.

I would have thought he would have at least gotten ahold of one or two for a 110+, even if his average was low because of his contact issues.

He did have a maxEV of 111.8 in 2019 which ranked him 2nd among Cards that year (behind only Marcell Ozuna) so it's still in there somewhere

[Todd Zola]

O'Neill is one of the best examples of why average exit velocity unto itself is misleading. His AEV on fly balls is exceptional, but the mark on grounders is very low. This is indicative of an extreme uppercut swing, which also helps explain the strikeouts since the barrel is in the hitting zone for a shorter time than a more level cut.

[cavebird]

I wonder what his launch angles are. I imagine they are ridiculously high (on flyballs) and ridiculously low/negative (on the grounders). I would think the average for that would also be useless.

[Todd Zola]

I wonder what his launch angles are. I imagine they are ridiculously high (on flyballs) and ridiculously low/negative (on the grounders). I would think the average for that would also be useless.

O'Neill is a little in the intuitive direction.

League Average Fly Ball Launch Angle 39.9
O'Neill Average Fly Ball Launch Angle 40.4

League Average Ground Ball Launch Angle -12.6
O'Neill Average Ground Ball Launch Angle -13.1