Keeper Help? NL 4x4 $260

[Neilage]

Hey gang.

I was a much more active member of this group on the old site, way back when Nakedricci was the bartender.

Saves are scarce these days with so many teams using a committee.

Would you keep any of the following for NL Only, 4x4, $260?

Hector Neris $13
Richard Rodriguez $10
Alex Reyes $5
Tyler Rogers (SFG) $1

Also likely keeping these relievers:
Devin Williams $2
Brusdar Graterol $3

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Best of luck to everyone in their upcoming fantasy drafts.

[Teenwolf]

Tough question. If you have unlimited keeper spots for these guys, they all hold some appeal.

I rank them Rodriguez $10, Rogers $1, Reyes $5, Neris $13.

I think Neris $13 seems like the most likely to go for less at auction. I don't mind the gamble, but I would prefer to keep the $13 and go to auction looking for saves plays.

Rogers $1 is interesting, but much more likely to be held in MR. McGee has a lot of closing experience, and Rogers' repertoire is very atypical for closers, 85 MPH FB and funky submarine delivery. For $1, I like other RP's to collect saves more, but I could see keeping him.

Rodriguez is the one I have the most faith in to collect saves. For $10, I feel like the Pirates will continue their teardown, and give Rodriguez saves until the trade deadline to build him up as an asset. Maybe you could get him back cheaper, but I feel like the worst closers usually go for more than $10. Use your league history and judgment, but I'd be fine at that price for 2/3 season as likely closer.

Reyes $5 is a tough call. Very crowded bullpen, and Reyes probably sits 3 or 4 on the closer depth chart, but obviously carries insanely high pedigree that's starting to be realized by performance. His role probably keeps him cheap if you toss him back, maybe better to hope to land him at auction for a similar price and re-start the contract just in case he finally breaks out.

[joncarlos]

How many teams? In a 10-team, I'm throwing back Graterol. I like him, but Treinen is the #2 in that bulpen and Kenley has Roberts' confidence. Maybe in a 12-teamer he's OK.

I'm definitely keeping Rich Rod. He's the guy and even if he's moved in July, he can get 20 saves in 4 months, maybe? The Bucs won't win many but the ones they do win will be close.

Neris is a nope. Rogers is a nope for me too -I think you can get him back for that. Reyes is a maybe. Whether I like him more than Graterol, I'm not sure, but I don't think I do. Hicks and Gallegos and maybe even ANdrew Miller are ahead of Reyes for saves.

I'd definitely keep Williams too.

I just don't know about keeping 2 MRs or more. In a 12-teamer, maybe I'd be comfortable rolling out 4 relievers a week or going into the auction with a guy that could end up on the bench half the time. If I did, I'd keep Graterol and not Reyes.

[Neilage]

How many teams? In a 10-team, I'm throwing back Graterol. I like him, but Treinen is the #2 in that bulpen and Kenley has Roberts' confidence. Maybe in a 12-teamer he's OK.

I'm definitely keeping Rich Rod. He's the guy and even if he's moved in July, he can get 20 saves in 4 months, maybe? The Bucs won't win many but the ones they do win will be close.

Neris is a nope. Rogers is a nope for me too -I think you can get him back for that. Reyes is a maybe. Whether I like him more than Graterol, I'm not sure, but I don't think I do. Hicks and Gallegos and maybe even ANdrew Miller are ahead of Reyes for saves.

I'd definitely keep Williams too.

I just don't know about keeping 2 MRs or more. In a 12-teamer, maybe I'd be comfortable rolling out 4 relievers a week or going into the auction with a guy that could end up on the bench half the time. If I did, I'd keep Graterol and not Reyes.

Thanks a million for the feedback JC (and TW).

10-team league going into our 32nd season. No bench.


Saves went for a premium in our league even before the trend towards committees - so much so that I usually rely on grabbing saves through FAAB during the season. That is how I acquired all of the MRs I listed.

I believe I can get Graterol, Reyes, and Rogers (or their equals) in the auction for their combined $8. I agree. that having flexibility in the auction is the right strategy.

You've both sold me on keeping RichRod.

I feel like Neris is the most likely candidate for saves as the incumbent over Bradley. Hopefully, ST will provide more clarity. If the draft were today, I would likely keep him. Steamer currently projects Neris with 18 saves to Bradley's 8, but who knows what Lovullo will do.

My other pitchers are 4 SP:
Pablo Lopez
Sixto Sanchez
Mike Soroka
Marcus Stroman

[Teenwolf]

Let's examine the Phillies closer situation more closely.

Neris and Bradley are both FA after 2021, so there's no incentive to hold salaries down.

Neris has a higher K rate both in '20 and over career, and it's a pretty significant difference. Bradley 9.9 K/9 as reliever, Neris 11.4 K/9. Edge Neris.

Ratios are the same (Bradley's ratios inflated by age 22-23 starting pitching with ERA over 5). Recency bias gives slight edge to Bradley, but Neris had bad luck in a small sample. It's a wash.

Looking at how they've performed as closers, Neris performs a bit better as a closer than other situations, Bradley performs a bit worse as a closer than other situations. Slight edge to Neris.

Neris is 31.5 years old, Bradley 28.5 years old. Slight edge Bradley, but it probably isn't a factor.

End of the day, Neris gets a slight edge, but he's been known to stumble in the closer role here and there. The projection of Neris with 18 and Bradley with 8 seems good to me. $13 is fair enough, but without the job locked down, and in a 10 team league, I might pass and see what he goes for at auction. You know your league's penchant for spending heavily on closers more than I do, so use your judgment.

[joncarlos]

I dunno... the Phillies bullpen was historically bad last year, and while it wasn't really Neris' fault, I can see them wanting a change just to make things look different.

Neris had a 5.4 BB/9 last year. Bradley's was 1.47.

I wouldn't want to bet that kind of money on Neris - I think Girardi is going to want to pick a guy and stick with him. So I don't think it's going to be 18 and 8 or 20 and 10, I think it's going to be 27 and 4. Neris could be the 27 but it's a big gamble to find out.

[chancellor]

I dunno... the Phillies bullpen was historically bad last year, and while it wasn't really Neris' fault, I can see them wanting a change just to make things look different.

Neris had a 5.4 BB/9 last year. Bradley's was 1.47.

I wouldn't want to bet that kind of money on Neris - I think Girardi is going to want to pick a guy and stick with him. So I don't think it's going to be 18 and 8 or 20 and 10, I think it's going to be 27 and 4. Neris could be the 27 but it's a big gamble to find out.

Yeah, pretty much this. Other than K/9, Neris is worse than Archie, and I think that'll show up pretty quickly. Even if you throw out '20, Neris has consistently walked 3+/9, Archie has not. Archie's stuff is better. His ERA and FIP have consistently been lower.