Extension question

[Gregg]

I would be interested in those who would not increase Hendricks what your overall philosophy is on closers?

Do you punt saves? Do you just trade for some saves mid year? How much do you spend annually on closers?

If Hendricks was 2 bucks would you give him a year?

[Sour Masher]

I would be interested in those who would not increase Hendricks what your overall philosophy is on closers?

Do you punt saves? Do you just trade for some saves mid year? How much do you spend annually on closers?

If Hendricks was 2 bucks would you give him a year?

To me, the turn over at closer is so high, the risk of losing the one you extend vs the chances of you finding a new one cheap does not lend itself to extending a closer. Especially a guy over 30 without a very long track record.

[The Feral Slasher]

To me, the turn over at closer is so high, the risk of losing the one you extend vs the chances of you finding a new one cheap does lend itself to extending a closer. Especially a guy over 30 without a very long track record.

I'm trying to assess the risk of Hendricks losing his job in 2021. Extending him costs me 5 extra on this years budget and worst case I cut him and lose 5 on next years as well. I need to look at what I stand to gain if he holds the job for 2 solid years. THen assess probabilities. I guess I'm of the opinion that it is ok to miss on 20 or 30 percent of extensions because the penalty is small (for one year extensions) IF the potential best case scenario offers possibility of large "profit" in the 2nd year. Maybe I have not been burned by enough bad contracts.

[Pauly]

I would be interested in those who would not increase Hendricks what your overall philosophy is on closers?

Do you punt saves? Do you just trade for some saves mid year? How much do you spend annually on closers?

If Hendricks was 2 bucks would you give him a year?

If you are like me, you draft guys like Jonathan Hernandez every year so you can replace Hendricks with the next great thing for pennies and never have to extend the most volatile players in baseball.

[Gregg]

I'm trying to assess the risk of Hendricks losing his job in 2021. Extending him costs me 5 extra on this years budget and worst case I cut him and lose 5 on next years as well. I need to look at what I stand to gain if he holds the job for 2 solid years. THen assess probabilities. I guess I'm of the opinion that it is ok to miss on 20 or 30 percent of extensions because the penalty is small (for one year extensions) IF the potential best case scenario offers possibility of large "profit" in the 2nd year. Maybe I have not been burned by enough bad contracts.

I started a closer thread awhile ago. Two of our longtime and respected contributors have Hendricks in the top 3 of closers. He can be had for two years for $12 bucks. Does it get better than that? All pitchers have risk. Seems like this is a good gamble.

I tried to trade for $22 Hendricks in our AL only 5x5. Did not get it done. Just sayin.

[Bene Futuis]

To me, the turn over at closer is so high, the risk of losing the one you extend vs the chances of you finding a new one cheap does lend itself to extending a closer. Especially a guy over 30 without a very long track record.

Pulled from an article I just read:

2015-16 Closer Turnover: 43.3%
2016-17: 43.3% total, 40.0% new closers, 3.3% returning closers
2017-18: 53.3% total, 40.0% new closers, 13.3% returning closers
2018-19: 46.7% total, 36.7% new closers, 10.0% returning closers


There might be situations in which I'd extend a closer but he'd have to be young, dominant, never been injured, strikingly handsome, great personality, and loves long walks on the beach and candlelit dinners.

[The Feral Slasher]

I started a closer thread awhile ago. Two of our longtime and respected contributors have Hendricks in the top 3 of closers. He can be had for two years for $12 bucks. Does it get better than that? All pitchers have risk. Seems like this is a good gamble.

I tried to trade for $22 Hendricks in our AL only 5x5. Did not get it done. Just sayin.

I suppose there is a a scenario where i could trade him to a dumper in May/June after banking a few saves....while picking up a replacement closer and more. Assuming anyone would look at a $12 closer as something worth trading for....and clearly there is some hesitation from lot of people.

[The Feral Slasher]

Pulled from an article I just read:

2015-16 Closer Turnover: 43.3%
2016-17: 43.3% total, 40.0% new closers, 3.3% returning closers
2017-18: 53.3% total, 40.0% new closers, 13.3% returning closers
2018-19: 46.7% total, 36.7% new closers, 10.0% returning closers


There might be situations in which I'd extend a closer but he'd have to be young, dominant, never been injured, strikingly handsome, great personality, and loves long walks on the beach and candlelit dinners.

well, I'm not young....but anyway. I was going to look at the probability of top 5 or top 10 closers losing their jobs in recent years, but haven't got to it yet

[Bene Futuis]

Looks like Liam Hendricks is worth about $15 (uninflated) in a league with your parameters, just for another data point to work with.

[The Feral Slasher]

Looks like Liam Hendricks is worth about $15 (uninflated) in a league with your parameters, just for another data point to work with.

Thanks ! Appreciate your input...preliminary glance shows a lot of job losses even amongst top closers the last few years

[Sour Masher]

I'm trying to assess the risk of Hendricks losing his job in 2021. Extending him costs me 5 extra on this years budget and worst case I cut him and lose 5 on next years as well. I need to look at what I stand to gain if he holds the job for 2 solid years. THen assess probabilities. I guess I'm of the opinion that it is ok to miss on 20 or 30 percent of extensions because the penalty is small (for one year extensions) IF the potential best case scenario offers possibility of large "profit" in the 2nd year. Maybe I have not been burned by enough bad contracts.

Wait, you can cut guys you extend and only pay a $5 penalty? You don't lose the keeper spot by cutting him? If so, I'd extend Liam and Dinelson for sure, if I am understanding that right.

[The Feral Slasher]

Wait, you can cut guys you extend and only pay a $5 penalty? You don't lose the keeper spot by cutting him? If so, I'd extend Liam and Dinelson for sure, if I am understanding that right.

I am confirming the rules, but I believe so.

[Sour Masher]

I am confirming the rules, but I believe so.

Yeah, that very much changes what I would do. In my league, if you have a guy under contract, he has to stay on your roster all year unless you trade him. Then, you can buy him out, but you lose the keeper spot, you pay 100% of his next year's salary, and 50% of all other years on the contract. If I were in a league like yours where you do not lose the keeper spot and only have to pay $5 to dump a bad contract, it takes a ton of the risk out of extending pitchers. I would definitely give another year to Hendriks and Lamet. I like McCullers at $6 this year, so I'd still just ride that out with him.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yeah, that very much changes what I would do. In my league, if you have a guy under contract, he has to stay on your roster all year unless you trade him. Then, you can buy him out, but you lose the keeper spot, you pay 100% of his next year's salary, and 50% of all other years on the contract. If I were in a league like yours where you do not lose the keeper spot and only have to pay $5 to dump a bad contract, it takes a ton of the risk out of extending pitchers. I would definitely give another year to Hendriks and Lamet. I like McCullers at $6 this year, so I'd still just ride that out with him.

El Diablo is in the details -as I've heard said.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yeah, that very much changes what I would do. In my league, if you have a guy under contract, he has to stay on your roster all year unless you trade him. Then, you can buy him out, but you lose the keeper spot, you pay 100% of his next year's salary, and 50% of all other years on the contract. If I were in a league like yours where you do not lose the keeper spot and only have to pay $5 to dump a bad contract, it takes a ton of the risk out of extending pitchers. I would definitely give another year to Hendriks and Lamet. I like McCullers at $6 this year, so I'd still just ride that out with him.

yep, If I just opt out of the last year it just costs me 5 bucks. This brings up the point about knowing your leagues rules and what it costs if you need to break a contract. EDIT: it is 5 per year, in this example only 5