Extension question

[The Feral Slasher]

I'd extend to these prices:

Juan Soto -20
Mike Yaz - 7
Walker Buehler - 12
L Hendricks - 7 (no extension, closer over 30, no way)
Dinelson Lamet - 2 (very tempted, but risky and even though I think he stays healthy, he is likely to regress)
L McCullers -6 (ceiling not high enough to extend)

I think I am leaning toward this...still pondering Hendricks and Lamet. I have rarely been burned in long terms so I might have less risk aversion than most here. Thanks everyone for the input

[Gregg]

For those who are recommending extending Hendricks, I'm assuming you also would have extended Blake Treinen after 2018? Yes, just one single example, but I think it is a good example of closers in general, even the "best" closer.

It would have depended on Treinen's salary. It would depend on how my league values closers both at auction and when trading. In the case of Treinen if he was $2 I certainly would have given him a year. And I wouldn't lose much sleep over the 5 bucks. It is part of the game.

Would I be thrilled to get Hendricks at this year's auction for $12? Yes I would. I can tell you that would not happen. All players are injury risks. 12 bucks for Hendricks is a bargain for this year and makes him tradeable in the event that in season dumping is needed.

[Teenwolf]

30 years old and as of 2 years ago he was a AAAA guy who hit 10-15 HR. No speed to speak of at the mlb level on a bad team that wont get him R/RBI. No, not close to a star for me.

When I say star I'm talking about someone in the top ~3 rounds of a redraft adp. Yaz goes in round 9.

How is it that 58 games in 2020 makes Isaiah Kiner-Falefa a "different hitter", while the past 161 games over 2 years for Yastrzemski is overshadowed by everything he did prior to the last 2 years? That makes no sense in any way.

This is what you said on IKF "in 2020 he was a different hitter so quoting his career stats doesn’t really move the needle."

Yastrzemski improved in 2020 to be one of the best bats in MLB, especially in OBP format. Improved from 122 OPS+ up to 165, which is elite by any standard. To produce the power he did with the discipline marks he did (24.4% K, 13.3% BB) shows the skills are sustainable. .370 BABIP might be slightly due for regression.

So you have completely opposite trajectories for these players despite both showing year-over-year gains because Yastrzemski is 30 to IKF's 26, and IKF was developed as a catcher so he automatically has more in the tank? What if Yastrzemski did a Highlander type ritual summoning the skills of his grandfather in the last few years and we don't know about it? There's all kinds of ways for athletes to unlock another level.

I don't know how Jose Bautista made the adjustments he did at age 29 to become a superstar for a 5 year run, but it happened. Come to think of it, Edwin Encarnacion was kinda shit until 29 years old too. It's not so uncommon.

Also, Yaz collected 4 SB in 161 games. Not nothing. Projections average 6 SB.

In 703 minor league games, Yastrzemski has 61 SB, 33 CS.

In 489 minor league games for IKF, he has 53 SB, 26 CS.

Are those drastically different speed track records, enough so to call Yastrzemski speed "non-existant" while IKF is a lock for 10-15 SB despite poor success rates?

I just think you're way too caught up in pushing these atypical development guys as square pieces into a round hole. There are myriad paths to development.

But I know as a Ranger fan you might forget what a superstar bat looks like. It's been a while since Beltre retired. ... come to think of it, how many years before Beltre found another gear? From age 19-30 Beltre was around 100 OPS+ for his career and he ended up putting up around 130 OPS+ from age 31-38! Career arcs are anything but linear, even for HOF players.

[Sour Masher]

For the first part about IKF, I believe Ken was saying that he has seen with his own eyeballs that IKF's better results were a result of evident and positive changes in his approach, thus assuring us that the change is stats is not just SSS noise. I think that is valuable to know. And it is true that catchers take longer to develop their bats.

Perhaps someone who is a SF homer could share if Yaz's results were likewise based on an evolution of approach. I do agree that being 30 does not automatically make it impossible that he too is blossoming into better than he was. I'm a fan. The guy who comes to mind who went from next to nothing to legit player at age 30 is Raul Ibanez. He had a great after 30 run.

[The Feral Slasher]

For the first part about IKF, I believe Ken was saying that he has seen with his own eyeballs that IKF's better results were a result of evident and positive changes in his approach, thus assuring us that the change is stats is not just SSS noise. Perhaps someone who is a SF homer could share if Yaz's results were likewise based on an evolution of approach. I do agree that being 30 does not automatically make it impossible that he too is blossoming into better than he was. I'm a fan.

This (yaz hitting approach) was discussed in an article in the Athletic last summer if i recall.

[Sour Masher]

This (yaz hitting approach) was discussed in an article in the Athletic last summer if i recall.

Yeah, I read that one. It was GLOWING about him. I think he is legit. I don't know if he will have a run as long as Ibanez for out of nowhere after 30 success, but I'd feel very good about having him the next two years, at least.

[Teenwolf]

For the first part about IKF, I believe Ken was saying that he has seen with his own eyeballs that IKF's better results were a result of evident and positive changes in his approach, thus assuring us that the change is stats is not just SSS noise. I think that is valuable to know. And it is true that catchers take longer to develop their bats.

Perhaps someone who is a SF homer could share if Yaz's results were likewise based on an evolution of approach. I do agree that being 30 does not automatically make it impossible that he too is blossoming into better than he was. I'm a fan. The guy who comes to mind who went from next to nothing to legit player at age 30 is Raul Ibanez. He had a great after 30 run.

I appreciate a first hand account. I felt the same way about the legitimacy of Jose Bautista's breakout because I'd watched a lot of live games myself.

I can also buy a breakout for a 26 year old developed as a catcher with gold glove SS defense guaranteeing playing time. I simply don't see a high ceiling when the breakout in question resulted in a 91 OPS+ on a profile that still holds 20 grade power and questionable SB rates that are the primary source of his value.

Your Ibanez comp is superb. Breakout at age 29, produced solidly above average numbers up to age 41 season! He also carries a similar discipline profile to Yastrzemski. It's an easier profile to add power to a disciplined bat than vice versa.

[Pauly]

Not to get in between anything between teenwolf and Ken, but I think the point is more that you get more guaranteed profit out of yaz by playing him just for this year at 2 bucks. With no keepers in an OBP league he projects to around 9 dollars on the auction calculator. Unless you think he takes another significant step forward in 2021, you are taking a big chunk of the profit potential away by adding another year.

[The Feral Slasher]

Not to get in between anything between teenwolf and Ken, but I think the point is more that you get more guaranteed profit out of yaz by playing him just for this year at 2 bucks. With no keepers in an OBP league he projects to around 9 dollars on the auction calculator. Unless you think he takes another significant step forward in 2021, you are taking a big chunk of the profit potential away by adding another year.

Steamer has him at 13....which means in auction he would likely go for 15-20. So to me their is value even keeping him at 7. I guess it comes down to level of confidence he can maintain production for 2 seasons.

[chancellor]

Steamer has him at 13....which means in auction he would likely go for 15-20. So to me their is value even keeping him at 7. I guess it comes down to level of confidence he can maintain production for 2 seasons.

And the Steamer projection is on the low side, IMO.

[Bene Futuis]

Juan Soto -5 extend 3 yrs
Mike Yaz - 2 extend 1 yr
Walker Buehler - 2 extend 2 yrs
L Hendricks - 7 no extension
Dinelson Lamet - 2 no extension
L McCullers -6 no extension

Disagree that McCullers doesn't have a high ceiling but extending pitchers fresh off of injuries is asking for trouble. Extending relievers is the same. Very little risk with Yaz at $7, imo, and that fits your window to compete perfectly.

[Sour Masher]

Juan Soto -5 extend 3 yrs
Mike Yaz - 2 extend 1 yr
Walker Buehler - 2 extend 2 yrs
L Hendricks - 7 no extension
Dinelson Lamet - 2 no extension
L McCullers -6 no extension

Disagree that McCullers doesn't have a high ceiling but extending pitchers fresh off of injuries is asking for trouble. Extending relievers is the same. Very little risk with Yaz at $7, imo, and that fits your window to compete perfectly.

Looks like we agree on the contracts, but not on the reasoning for McCullers. I didn't mean McCullers didn't have a high enough ceiling on a per inning basis to warrant an extension. I meant I think his IP ceiling is capped. I'd prefer to keep him at 6 rather than push to 11, given I don't see him getting over 140 IP in either year. Lamet has the same issue, though I think his ceiling is higher both in terms of IP and in terms of production per IP.

[Teenwolf]

I will say that occasionally overextended non-studs can result in being forced to keep an at-value guaranteed contract and dump better keepers without guaranteed contracts, especially in mixed league settings, but I would need a very strong keeper list to play Yaz out at $2.

Last year I had 2 shares of Voit at $3 in 12 tm AL, and $2 in 18 tm mixed. I extended the AL, played out the mixed. Wish I had bought into Voits strong batting metrics despite a later age breakout. Wish I extended both.

Yaz shares some similarities to Voit, in terms of putting up strong 160 game breakout numbers that aren't fully bought into because of age.

[Bene Futuis]

Looks like we agree on the contracts, but not on the reasoning for McCullers. I didn't mean McCullers didn't have a high enough ceiling on a per inning basis to warrant an extension. I meant I think his IP ceiling is capped. I'd prefer to keep him at 6 rather than push to 11, given I don't see him getting over 140 IP in either year. Lamet has the same issue, though I think his ceiling is higher both in terms of IP and in terms of production per IP.

They're all going to be capped, IP-wise! All of them!!!!!

[hacko]

Juan Soto -5 extend 3 yrs
Mike Yaz - 2 extend 1 yr
Walker Buehler - 2 extend 2 yrs
L Hendricks - 7 no extension
Dinelson Lamet - 2 no extension
L McCullers -6 no extension

Disagree that McCullers doesn't have a high ceiling but extending pitchers fresh off of injuries is asking for trouble. Extending relievers is the same. Very little risk with Yaz at $7, imo, and that fits your window to compete perfectly.

I agree...