Anyone want to help with an ESPN Mock Draft Laboratory?

[Todd Zola]

Looking for volunteers to help with a Mock Draft Laboratory. I have a hypothesis I want to test and need help filling a few ESPN mocks. They take 90 minutes and, at least last season, everyone stayed to the end (well, almost). 10-team mixed 5x5 with 13H/9P (1-C). I write a piece for ESPN Insider on the results.

No, I won't tell you the hypothesis until after the five mocks are finished.

If you want to join one, here are the times

SATURDAY 2/27 3:00 PM ET
MONDAY 3/1 4:00 PM ET

Shoot me a PM with your email. Thanks.

[mgwiz22]

Now that it's done what were you testing for?

[Todd Zola]

Now that it's done what were you testing for?

The piece just went up on ESPN+, I'll be sending a note to the participants soon, but in brief, I concocted a personal "do not draft" list, consisting of 2020 under/over performers to see how the market views them. I used standard deviation of the five spots (after converting them to expected earnings) to get number. The premise being the range of picks could be even broader for this type of player, which helps when using ADP to help pave the way. The premise proved correct, the StDev for 10 of the 12 players I discussed was well above the average.

[Sour Masher]

The piece just went up on ESPN+, I'll be sending a note to the participants soon, but in brief, I concocted a personal "do not draft" list, consisting of 2020 under/over performers to see how the market views them. I used standard deviation of the five spots (after converting them to expected earnings) to get number. The premise being the range of picks could be even broader for this type of player, which helps when using ADP to help pave the way. The premise proved correct, the StDev for 10 of the 12 players I discussed was well above the average.

Thanks for the heads up--I had to snoop around for it. Glad I found it. Great idea for an article. In my main league, my only real need are SPs, and the two guys on your list for this experiment that are available are Bauer and Maeda. They are both guys I planned on targeting, depending on the bidding. I've read your take on Bauer before, so I knew you think he will keep doing whatever he needs to do to not revert back into a pumpkin. But it was an eye opener to see you would take him over that other top arm on your list. That definitely got my attention.

I've been debating spending whatever it takes to land Gerrit Cole, the other big name SP available in my league, but I'm becoming increasingly comfortable with the idea of spending less to land Bauer and probably being better off on the whole. Then again, given the variance, it is possible people in my league will feel the same way and the price difference will not be very big. The tough part is that I really want one of them, and it will be tough to know when to stop bidding on Cole, if he it out there first, given the variance on Bauer. I could bow out on Cole only to discover my league is on the high side on Bauer.

[Pauly]

The piece just went up on ESPN+, I'll be sending a note to the participants soon, but in brief, I concocted a personal "do not draft" list, consisting of 2020 under/over performers to see how the market views them. I used standard deviation of the five spots (after converting them to expected earnings) to get number. The premise being the range of picks could be even broader for this type of player, which helps when using ADP to help pave the way. The premise proved correct, the StDev for 10 of the 12 players I discussed was well above the average.

do you post your espn+ content on masterball?

[Todd Zola]

do you post your espn+ content on masterball?

Sorry, no.