2K21: Bo Bichette

[Pauly]

Curious what the pen thinks of Bichette. When I evaluate him, I feel like his numbers from two short seasons are having way too much of an influence on his overall projections.

First of all, every projection system I have seen has him stealing ~20-25 bases. That drives his value through the roof for drafters, but Im not very confident he approaches that total. He did it in the minors, but didnt run at those rates in those two short seasons, and I am also of the belief that Toronto wont be putting up too many green lights with that hitting lineup.

Bichette's statcast metrics dont exactly blow you off the page, and in fact, they show that he loves hitting fastballs and struggled against breaking pitches (shocking, I know). But if this becomes his first full season, I would think that he is going to see a TON a breaking balls as pitchers change their book on him.

All in all, he is a nice player and of course he could take a step forward and/or adjust when every pitcher thorws him a ton of breaking stuff...plus he has lots of "protection" in that lineup, but his current ADP in draft champions leagues (month of Feb only) puts him squarely in the middle to late second round...which to me looks like it has bust written all over it, especially if he cant live up the the SB numbers based on his minor league production.

Dont jump down my throat...just tell me why I'm incorrect

[chancellor]

"Bust" might be strong, but your concerns about SBs are real, and there's still the question on how Toronto will sort out their hitting order.

Buuuut...his bat to ball skills are very strong, his speed is excellent (supporting a higher than average BABIP), and the power looks very much for real. So, I'm thinking more 90-30-90-12-.300, which probably doesn't support his 23ish draft pick position, but I can't call that a bust, either.

[The Feral Slasher]

"Bust" might be strong, but your concerns about SBs are real, and there's still the question on how Toronto will sort out their hitting order.

Buuuut...his bat to ball skills are very strong, his speed is excellent (supporting a higher than average BABIP), and the power looks very much for real. So, I'm thinking more 90-30-90-12-.300, which probably doesn't support his 23ish draft pick position, but I can't call that a bust, either.

I think those numbers are more in line with my expectations. 20 steals seems unlikely

[Pauly]

"Bust" might be strong, but your concerns about SBs are real, and there's still the question on how Toronto will sort out their hitting order.

Buuuut...his bat to ball skills are very strong, his speed is excellent (supporting a higher than average BABIP), and the power looks very much for real. So, I'm thinking more 90-30-90-12-.300, which probably doesn't support his 23ish draft pick position, but I can't call that a bust, either.

Thanks. I honestly dont think he will hit .300 unless he really adjusts well to the pitch mix changes that are inevitably coming for him. Thinking more like .270-.280. Again, not bad or anything, just not 20ish pick material to me.

[Ken]

Is there data behind the idea that teams with good hitters don’t give their runners as many green lights? I get the concept theoretically but I think it’s way overused relative to what the numbers show ( from what I’ve seen in passing, very little correlation at all )

[Pauly]

Is there data behind the idea that teams with good hitters don’t give their runners as many green lights? I get the concept theoretically but I think it’s way overused relative to what the numbers show ( from what I’ve seen in passing, very little correlation at all )

This is really hard to come up with data. How about this....
Here are the teams atop MLB's all-time single-season home run list.

1. 2019 Twins: 307 homers, 28 SB
2. 2019 Yankees: 306 homers, 55 SB
3. 2019 Astros: 288 homers, 67 SB
4. 2019 Dodgers: 279 homers, 57 SB
5. 2018 Yankees: 267 homers, 63 SB
6. 1997 Mariners: 264 homers, 89 SB
7. 2005 Rangers: 260 homers, 67 SB
8. 2019 A's: 257 homers, 49 SB
9. 2010 Blue Jays: 257 homers, 58 SB
10. 1996 Orioles: 257 homers, 76 SB

In 2019, the 15th ranked team stole around 70 bases in a season.
In 2015, the 15th ranked team stole around 84 bases in a season.
In 2010, the 15th ranked team stole around 90 bases in a season.


So maybe that means that high HR hitting teams steal less than the average team...but it is still anecdotal

[cavebird]

The projection seems right, except I think it might be .285 if he gets all the breaking balls he is almost certainly going to get sooner or later. His BABIP should be high because of his speed, but I don't see his career .361 happening in a full season.

[Ken]

This is really hard to come up with data. How about this....
Here are the teams atop MLB's all-time single-season home run list.

1. 2019 Twins: 307 homers, 28 SB
2. 2019 Yankees: 306 homers, 55 SB
3. 2019 Astros: 288 homers, 67 SB
4. 2019 Dodgers: 279 homers, 57 SB
5. 2018 Yankees: 267 homers, 63 SB
6. 1997 Mariners: 264 homers, 89 SB
7. 2005 Rangers: 260 homers, 67 SB
8. 2019 A's: 257 homers, 49 SB
9. 2010 Blue Jays: 257 homers, 58 SB
10. 1996 Orioles: 257 homers, 76 SB

In 2019, the 15th ranked team stole around 70 bases in a season.
In 2015, the 15th ranked team stole around 84 bases in a season.
In 2010, the 15th ranked team stole around 90 bases in a season.


So maybe that means that high HR hitting teams steal less than the average team...but it is still anecdotal

I would look at the general pattern more than the outlier like top 10 all time personally. I don't see the Blue Jays as a top HR team all time, they were 8th last year and they added Springer and Semien who would have pushed them up maybe into top 5 range.

So when we are looking at teams in the top ~5 in HR each year, I'm not seeing much SB suppression. If you look at 2018 in fact, MIL and CLE, 4th and 6th in HR, were 1st and 4th in SB. In 2019 the top 6 teams (several of which had truly historic HR numbers as you noted), did not have as many SB, but MIL, in 7th in HR also was 7th in SB. In 2020, SDP, 4th in HR, led the league in SB.

So looking at that data, I don't see any indication that a top 5 power hitting team can't also have lots of green lights. The anecdotal suggestion that it turns off green lights doesn't seem to be the case from the data.

[Ken]

Bichette's statcast metrics dont exactly blow you off the page, and in fact, they show that he loves hitting fastballs and struggled against breaking pitches (shocking, I know). But if this becomes his first full season, I would think that he is going to see a TON a breaking balls as pitchers change their book on him.

Interested in this data. Can you point me to the details on this one

[Pauly]

Interested in this data. Can you point me to the details on this one

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

scroll down to pitch tracking to see the pitch mix

[madducks]

Interested in this data. Can you point me to the details on this one

[Todd Zola]

Correlating Team HR and Team SB over the past 10 years. There may be a slight pattern of higher HR teams running less, but it certainly isn't enough to make broad brush generalizations.

2011: -0.12
2012: -0.2
2013: -0.06
2014: -0.24
2015: -0.14
2016: -0.32
2017: 0.07
2018: 0.02
2019: -0.19
2020: -0.11

[chancellor]

Thanks. I honestly dont think he will hit .300 unless he really adjusts well to the pitch mix changes that are inevitably coming for him. Thinking more like .270-.280. Again, not bad or anything, just not 20ish pick material to me.

Agree on the not 20ish pick material. Disagree on his capability to adjust to a different mix of pitches. In any case, neither of us are getting him in our mixed league draft.

[Moonlight J]

If he stays in the 3 spot behind the OBP skills of Springer and Semien, it will sharply impact his SB opps. If I managed the Jays, I'd put Biggio & his LH bat + OBP skills + pitches per plate appearance in the third spot of that lineup and push Bichette down to 6th to allow him to run and make it easier for bottom of the lineup to drive in runs.

[joncarlos]

Last year I was way wrong. I said this:

All of this is to say, I worry that there's more AVG/plate discipline risk here than people think. If BT is also worried about how much he'll run, then I think he has to be a stayaway given his ADP in the 70s.

Oops. I love Boba as a player but I am still really hesitant to buy him as an early to mid second rounder this year.