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A Different Auction Strategy (at least for me)...

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  • #1

    A Different Auction Strategy (at least for me)...

    12 team NL only, and I have several big buck players. Now, I'm thinking of keeping them and going into the auction with very little to spend, but hoping that Stars and Scrubs is the right strategy for this group. 5x5 with traditional categories.

    2B Jake Cronenworth 1B,2B,SS | SD (9 B)

    SS Corey Seager SS | LAD Expiring 2021

    OF Mookie Betts OF | LAD (56 B)

    OF Trent Grisham OF | SD (9 C) Extend?

    OF Christian Yelich OF | MIL (57 C)



    P Daniel Bard P | COL (5 B)

    P Luis Castillo P | CIN (37 B)

    P Jordan Hicks P | STL (2 B)

    P Dinelson Lamet P | SD (1 C) (Extend?)

    P Dustin May P | LAD (5 A)


    Other potential keepers...

    CI Asdrubal Cabrera 1B,3B | WAS (2)

    DH Jesus Aguilar 1B | MIA (13)

    DH Jurickson Profar (11)

    P Kenley Jansen P | LAD (28)

    P Corey Knebel P | LAD (4)

    P Emilio Pagan P | SD (4)

    P Tanner Rainey P | WAS (3)

    P Trevor Rosenthal P | SD (15)

    P Max Scherzer P | WAS (42)

    P Bryse Wilson P | ATL (5)

    So, my selected 10 have a total cost of 196 out of a 260 dollar budget. Obviously I couldn't be a part of anything much until late in the auction...is this good enough to go to war with, or am I being foolish?

    All thoughts and opinions are welcome...thanks in advance.
    "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
    - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

    "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
    -Warren Ellis
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Just before getting into it when I add your 10 keepers I get $201 not $196 and that's without Seager whose salary is not showing.

    Comment

    • #3
      At first pass, without beer or knowing inflation, I'd be really inclined to leverage recency bias and throw Yelich in and if you really like him, buy him back. Given how badly he fared last year, and seeing Mookie cost you 56 last year, I suspect you'd be able to get Yelich back for a little less and on a new contract.

      Given the depth of your league, I'd also have a really hard time throwing Aguilar and Profar back in for a combined $24. Profar seems to have settled into that super-utility role and ought to be as close to a lock for 15-20 HRs and 9-15 SBs and great positional flexibility. Aguilar dropped a little power in Miami, but got back to a .270ish BA. Given the reduction in 1B quality, a .270ish BA, 20-25 HR, 80 RBI for $13 seems like a really good value.

      I'd extend Grisham, probably one year. If you believe he can consistently go 25-25, then two years can make sense too. He's a guy I'm concerned might have his power numbers dinged with the softer ball.
      I'm just here for the baseball.

      Comment

      • #4
        In addition to the above, I'd add that when keeping that much salary I'd be tempted to keep Pagan to leverage the possibility he becomes the closer at some point. mostly, because if you only have $60 for 15 players you shouldn't waste a big chunk on saves alone.

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        • #5
          Hard to recommend anything without know how much Betts and Yelich would go for if they were tossed back as a baseline.

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by Pauly View Post
            Hard to recommend anything without know how much Betts and Yelich would go for if they were tossed back as a baseline.
            True, but I kinda figured he knows they'd go for similar prices. though I would predict Yelich is the most likely to get a discount based on 2020.

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by Pauly View Post
              Hard to recommend anything without know how much Betts and Yelich would go for if they were tossed back as a baseline.
              Figure he got Betts after a 135-29-80-16-.295 season which followed an absolute monster season in 2018, for $56.
              I'm just here for the baseball.

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by chancellor View Post
                At first pass, without beer or knowing inflation, I'd be really inclined to leverage recency bias and throw Yelich in and if you really like him, buy him back. Given how badly he fared last year, and seeing Mookie cost you 56 last year, I suspect you'd be able to get Yelich back for a little less and on a new contract.

                Given the depth of your league, I'd also have a really hard time throwing Aguilar and Profar back in for a combined $24. Profar seems to have settled into that super-utility role and ought to be as close to a lock for 15-20 HRs and 9-15 SBs and great positional flexibility. Aguilar dropped a little power in Miami, but got back to a .270ish BA. Given the reduction in 1B quality, a .270ish BA, 20-25 HR, 80 RBI for $13 seems like a really good value.

                I'd extend Grisham, probably one year. If you believe he can consistently go 25-25, then two years can make sense too. He's a guy I'm concerned might have his power numbers dinged with the softer ball.
                Originally posted by chancellor View Post
                Figure he got Betts after a 135-29-80-16-.295 season which followed an absolute monster season in 2018, for $56.
                Last season, Betts was also the shiny new toy in NL-only leagues and in my experience, those guys always go for a couple of dollars more than normal. (Lindor will probably be slightly overpriced in NL-only this year.) I agree with Chance, as I'd probably be inclined to toss both Betts and Yelich, and try to get them back for about $5 (combined) cheaper.

                I'd also keep Aguilar and would strongly consider Profar. Would definitely gamble on a one year extension on Grisham, and probably go two because of the decline of SBs leading to fewer power/speed threats.
                2021 Auction Anatomy
                2021 Keeper Decisions
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                2020 Pre-Auction
                2015 Auction Anatomy
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                2011 Auction Anatomy

                RotoJunkie Posts: 4,314
                RotoJunkie Join Date: Jun 2001
                Location: U.S.A.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Good points folks, sorry about the Seager salary omission, it's 15 dollars.

                  I did have several people tell me after last years auction that they wished that they'd bid more on Mookie, so I don't think that he'd go cheaper. Same with Yelich, this is a group that's not afraid to spend on studs, so while he may go a few bucks less, I can also lose him if he goes a few bucks more.

                  Getting a Profar over Cronenworth vibe for sure, I can definitely see that. I'll look at Paqan too, unless they re-sign Rosenthal, who I also have, but at 15 bucks.
                  "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                  - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                  "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                  -Warren Ellis

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    I'd probably also pass on at least Yelich at that price. Prefer Croenenworth over Profar, particularly at those prices, but both are reasonable in an only league. Would not extend Lamet. A lot of moving parts on the relief side of things so I bet your choices will begin to take shape as spring training rolls on.

                    Honestly, I'd toss back both Betts and Yelich and maybe Castillo, although the latter will likely exceed $40 at auction. Depends on what kind of talent you think will be available to you come auction day.
                    More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      In a league that deep, I can see keeping both Profar and Cronenworth, but geez, the big worry is that Kim/Myers/Grisham/Pham end up grabbing the 2B/3 OF jobs and leaving them both with little playing time. Maybe target Kim at auction and at least get one spot in that lineup locked down?

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Looking at all the comments, and taking them to heart. Gonna throw back either Mookie or Yelich, can't exactly decide who yet. Keep Aguilar and one of eithe Cronenberg or Profar, leaning Profar right now. They gave him a pretty substantial contract, and his Septenber was pretty nice. I think that Cronenberg is probably going to be the one squeezed out, unless Kim bombs.

                        Still torn on Castillo, since I don't think I can buy an ace at that price, as Bene pointed out.
                        "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                        - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                        "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                        -Warren Ellis

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Hornsby View Post
                          Good points folks, sorry about the Seager salary omission, it's 15 dollars.

                          I did have several people tell me after last years auction that they wished that they'd bid more on Mookie, so I don't think that he'd go cheaper. Same with Yelich, this is a group that's not afraid to spend on studs, so while he may go a few bucks less, I can also lose him if he goes a few bucks more.

                          Getting a Profar over Cronenworth vibe for sure, I can definitely see that. I'll look at Paqan too, unless they re-sign Rosenthal, who I also have, but at 15 bucks.
                          And this is why I would keep Mookie. If I lost out on Mookie to you last year I would make sure I got him this next time or make you pay more. There are a few players I overpay for. Mookie is one of them.

                          Yelich is the one I would gamble on throwing back and rebidding.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                            And this is why I would keep Mookie. If I lost out on Mookie to you last year I would make sure I got him this next time or make you pay more. There are a few players I overpay for. Mookie is one of them.

                            Yelich is the one I would gamble on throwing back and rebidding.
                            Agree.

                            And P.S. - yeah, keep Castillo at that price for sure.
                            I'm just here for the baseball.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Fascinating. I have the same decision to make in a league. FWIW, Hornsby, I am leaning towards having only $53 out of a $300 budget available. I'll make a post soon and see what people think. It can be a tough call.

                              Comment

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