2K21 Closer thread

[joncarlos]

Isn't the combination of Hader and Williams the equivalent of a top tier SP, just with Saves instead of Wins? One system projects the following combined stats for them: 10W, 41S, 153 IP, 234K, 2.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. That's like getting deGrom's stats in his 2018 & 2019 Cy Young seasons...plus adding Saves to the mix.

Yeah, but for 2 spots.

deGrom + a 30 round MR that you started all year would get you ... I don't know, 17 W, 3 Sv, 260 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.70 ERA, 330 K?

[Ken]

Yeah, but for 2 spots.

deGrom + a 30 round MR that you started all year would get you ... I don't know, 17 W, 3 Sv, 260 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.70 ERA, 330 K?

exactly, the opportunity cost of that roster spot is not 0.

[ThatRogue]

Yeah, but for 2 spots.

deGrom + a 30 round MR that you started all year would get you ... I don't know, 17 W, 3 Sv, 260 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.70 ERA, 330 K?

But that requires taking deGrom in the 1st round AND hitting on a really good 30th round MR, who would project to have around 4W, 3 Sv, 1.10 WHIP, 3.00 ERA and 60K in 50 IP. Hader plus Williams frees up your first round pick for something else.

exactly, the opportunity cost of that roster spot is not 0.

Agreed, but is the value of equivalent stats from a second first round pick worth giving up a 5th plus a 12th? Remember, you're getting the stats from whomever you would draft instead of deGrom, plus deGrom's equivalent stats (though with fewer innings which lessens the ERA and WHIP benefit), plus 41 saves.

[Ken]

Agreed, but is the value of equivalent stats from a second first round pick worth giving up a 5th plus a 12th? Remember, you're getting the stats from whomever you would draft instead of deGrom, plus deGrom's equivalent stats (though with fewer innings which lessens the ERA and WHIP benefit), plus 41 saves.

I'm simply talking about comparing 2 players against 1. It's generally not useful to do, you are ignoring the other spot on your roster. I'm not referring to drafting, but instead to using all of your available players.

If you are using up 2 spots to get the stats of 1, then you are falling behind.

Also in your analogy on the draft side, you left out getting a 5th and 12th round pick if you *dont* take Hader and Williams, which is significant, similar to your example of the player you would get instead of DeGrom.

Ultimately it's rarely useful to compare the combined stats of 2 players against 1 other player. It really just doesn't tell you anything at all.

[Bene Futuis]

What was that strategy called? The "three MRs equal one stud SP" one? It used to get discussed a lot around here, maybe by our esteemed Rogue himself. I remember discussion revolving around creating the equivalent of Johan Santana with a combination of late / cheap MRs, which certainly dates me.

[ThatRogue]

I'm simply talking about comparing 2 players against 1. It's generally not useful to do, you are ignoring the other spot on your roster. I'm not referring to drafting, but instead to using all of your available players.

If you are using up 2 spots to get the stats of 1, then you are falling behind.

Also in your analogy on the draft side, you left out getting a 5th and 12th round pick if you *dont* take Hader and Williams, which is significant, similar to your example of the player you would get instead of DeGrom.

Ultimately it's rarely useful to compare the combined stats of 2 players against 1 other player. It really just doesn't tell you anything at all.

That's a fair and valid point. I guess the true comparison is whether 1) a 1st round player, plus using the 5th and 12th round picks in a way that adds up to deGrom's stats PLUS 41 saves is a better use of resources than 2) actually drafting deGrom, plus the stats you'd get from whomever you get with your 5th and 12th round picks.

[ThatRogue]

What was that strategy called? The "three MRs equal one stud SP" one? It used to get discussed a lot around here, maybe by our esteemed Rogue himself. I remember discussion revolving around creating the equivalent of Johan Santana with a combination of late / cheap MRs, which certainly dates me.

I certainly can't take credit for it. Didn't Ron Shandler promote it on his site, some time back?

[chancellor]

I certainly can't take credit for it. Didn't Ron Shandler promote it on his site, some time back?

Paul Sporer did an analysis on it in his younger days on here, and then Bodhezifa also did one. I can't remember which was more in depth. Given the lower innings SPs are throwing now, it may well merit a re-check.

[Bene Futuis]

Paul Sporer did an analysis on it in his younger days on here, and then Bodhezifa also did one. I can't remember which was more in depth. Given the lower innings SPs are throwing now, it may well merit a re-check.

The LIMA (low investment mound ace) plan! Honestly, I think that plan is more relevant than ever for 2021. Relievers are going to be crucial this year.

[chancellor]

The LIMA (low investment mound ace) plan! Honestly, I think that plan is more relevant than ever for 2021. Relievers are going to be crucial this year.

You're right - they didn't look at it that way, it was more of a "who and how many MRs do I need to equal a top tier SP", but it fits that mentality perfectly. And I agree on RP's completely with you. I expect vulture wins to be greater than ever this year.

[harmon]

You're right - they didn't look at it that way, it was more of a "who and how many MRs do I need to equal a top tier SP", but it fits that mentality perfectly. And I agree on RP's completely with you. I expect vulture wins to be greater than ever this year.

Taking a stab at some projections. A squad heavy with MR types points to:

Wins - middle of pack (need to click on right guys and not realistic to beat those teams that invest in high end starters)
ERA and WHIP - middleish (these are not your high end guys)
K - lower end
S - lower end

Say in a 10 teamer if you're the only one using this strategy and all goes real well that you get 6(W)+7+7(ERA and WHIP)+3(K)+2(S) = 25 pitching points. Might get lucky in saves here and there and pick up an extra couple of points or possibly get a closer. for part of the year In a "normal" year with this system wins and K's would be lower by 3 or 4 points due to less innings.

Say best case 28 of 50 points this year for minimal investment. Tilting more to long relievers might result a bit differently.

Does anyone have stats on the overall % of points typically needed to finish in the top 10%, 20%, 30%?

[Gregg]

You're right - they didn't look at it that way, it was more of a "who and how many MRs do I need to equal a top tier SP", but it fits that mentality perfectly. And I agree on RP's completely with you. I expect vulture wins to be greater than ever this year.

We have daily moves, a 13 man reserve roster (that is drafted after the auction), and $100 worth of FAAB (for the year). If I have a competitive team (not rebuilding) I will load up my reserve roster with MR's and move them in and out to maximize their innings. This is opposed to a rebuilding year where I will grab as many prospects instead.

This gets me "more" of all pitching stats (if I guess right). I do not have to sacrifice the idea of a two or three for one roster spot dilemma. It can also allows me to grab a pitcher that might get high K's and wins but lousy era and whip as the streaming will help balance that out.

Not lima but does allow me to make an extra good starter out of two or three relievers.

[Bene Futuis]

Without looking, guess which pitcher induced the lowest hard hit rate in baseball last year.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Without looking, guess which pitcher induced the lowest hard hit rate in baseball last year.

Tallion.

[Ken]

Tallion.

uhhh, Pedro Martinez