2021 Keep Forever Help

[Gregg]

I may have read it wrong but isn't Ruschmann an either or for this trade?

If I am correct and he retains Ruschmann he could then flip him for a higher order draft pick.

[Ken]

You highlight his value in this format, but doesn't Adley have less value in a shallow 1 catcher league? I understand the round value, but that goes for Ryu too. Of course, I would try too, but given the limited number of keeper spots, it might be hard to get a good return for Adley in a 1 catcher mixed league, despite his supposed generational talent (if anyone can be the exception to the rule, it is him, but lots of folks have been burnt by catching prospects over the years).

Ah, as usual SM, you bring up interesting points. Lets dive in.

First, does a 1C league make catchers have less value. Yes, I'd say that's pretty well established and you are correct. Higher replacement level.

Now, does a "shallow" league make players less valuable. Hmm, well that's an interesting question. I'd say it makes stars and scrubs more reasonable, a shallow format leads to more talent on FAAB, so your replacement value is higher. There's less reason to invest in mid tier players since they are relatively close to what you can get for "free" later.

But what makes this league shallow? 14 team mixed isn't DEEP, but it's not particularly shallow either. 12 teams is shallow for sure. What about 3 OF? Well, that makes OF shallow, but from a $ standpoint it actually re-allocates *some* $ that would have normally gone to that 4th and 5th OF to other positions, one of which is catcher. Just moving from 5 OF to 3 OF splits the difference between 2C and 1C according to fangraphs' auction calculator. So I'd say we are likely overstating the negative effects of "shallow" in this context.

But separately, I think a "keep forever" league should increase the value of the top end prospects like Adley. That was my original point. Getting to have the entire career of a 1st overall pick is pretty valuable. In the long term I'd definitely value Adley's career over the remaining career left for Ryu. First, the amount of time left, Adley could potentially give you 10+ years? Ryu, no way. Second, pitcher vs hitter. Third, upside - Adley's upside is possibly a Buster Posey clone right? Ryu's upside going forward is what he is already, which is very good, but not near what Adley could be.

I think in trade value in this type league Adley >> Ryu.

[chancellor]

This is what makes the board fun - looking at the same possibilities/potential and coming up with different answers. For Adley vs. Ryu with virgonomic's keepers, I'd take Ryu in a minute. With Stras, Merrifield, and Darvish all being 32+ years old, plus three other stud hitters, this team is build to win now and for the next 2-3 years. Add in that if he'd keep Adley, it's highly probable that he'd end up with two players who may not contribute much or at all this year in Wander and Adley.

I was much more concerned about paying Realmuto and Voit to one team to get Ryu.

[Bene Futuis]

This is what makes the board fun - looking at the same possibilities/potential and coming up with different answers. For Adley vs. Ryu with virgonomic's keepers, I'd take Ryu in a minute. With Stras, Merrifield, and Darvish all being 32+ years old, plus three other stud hitters, this team is build to win now and for the next 2-3 years. Add in that if he'd keep Adley, it's highly probable that he'd end up with two players who may not contribute much or at all this year in Wander and Adley.

I was much more concerned about paying Realmuto and Voit to one team to get Ryu.

Agree with this across the board. I will admit, though, that I am biased against catchers, even of the "generational" talent type like Matt Wieters. Surely you can get some value back in trade for him, though.

[Ken]

This is what makes the board fun - looking at the same possibilities/potential and coming up with different answers. For Adley vs. Ryu with virgonomic's keepers, I'd take Ryu in a minute.

Ah, but what's interesting is that I don't even necessarily disagree with you on that point - I'm discussing the perceived trade value primarily. What fits on his team is a different question that's equally important.

But regardless of getting Ryu for this team, he should be able to get quite a bit of return for what is effectively "Adley's full career". It *should* be more than Ryu IMO.

To me it's like having $500 in your pocket and going to buy a tire because you have a flat and need to get somewhere urgently. Yes, you may need the tire fixed more than you currently need the $500, but that doesn't mean you should get scammed out of the $500.

[virgonomic]

The Ryu owner declined but he's new to the league so I will circle back to explain the keeper and draft process.

If I acquired Ryu and did not give up Adley, I'd offer Adley/Stras to the highest bidder.

Stras has been a huge liability. The year I won the championship I did it with him on the bench (not IR eligible) and had he been healthy last year I might have won.

[Sour Masher]

Ah, as usual SM, you bring up interesting points. Lets dive in.

First, does a 1C league make catchers have less value. Yes, I'd say that's pretty well established and you are correct. Higher replacement level.

Now, does a "shallow" league make players less valuable. Hmm, well that's an interesting question. I'd say it makes stars and scrubs more reasonable, a shallow format leads to more talent on FAAB, so your replacement value is higher. There's less reason to invest in mid tier players since they are relatively close to what you can get for "free" later.

But what makes this league shallow? 14 team mixed isn't DEEP, but it's not particularly shallow either. 12 teams is shallow for sure. What about 3 OF? Well, that makes OF shallow, but from a $ standpoint it actually re-allocates *some* $ that would have normally gone to that 4th and 5th OF to other positions, one of which is catcher. Just moving from 5 OF to 3 OF splits the difference between 2C and 1C according to fangraphs' auction calculator. So I'd say we are likely overstating the negative effects of "shallow" in this context.

But separately, I think a "keep forever" league should increase the value of the top end prospects like Adley. That was my original point. Getting to have the entire career of a 1st overall pick is pretty valuable. In the long term I'd definitely value Adley's career over the remaining career left for Ryu. First, the amount of time left, Adley could potentially give you 10+ years? Ryu, no way. Second, pitcher vs hitter. Third, upside - Adley's upside is possibly a Buster Posey clone right? Ryu's upside going forward is what he is already, which is very good, but not near what Adley could be.

I think in trade value in this type league Adley >> Ryu.

Upon reflection, I should not have brought up position scarcity at all, as it isn't the main or even a significant part of why I'd prefer Ryu to Adley. It isn't catcher value I have concerns about, it is catcher prospect values. In my league, also a 14 team 1 catcher league, not only do most catchers rightly go very cheap, catching prospects get significantly discounted as trade chips, because of the opportunity cost lost as you wait for them to develop (typically, they take longer), and because of their much greater fail rate. That doesn't mean I still don't roster catching prospects, because I do. Just over the last twelve months I have acquired and traded Adley, Campusano, and Fransisco Alvarez, 3 of the top 5 catching prospects. I ended up trading all for returns much lower than than prospect rankings would bring me if they played any other position. I just traded Adley last week for the 6th overall pick in our FYPD. I regret that move a little, because I do think Adley could be that very rare catcher prospect to overcome the long odds, but that was the best I could get for him--a pick that will end up getting me Veen, Gonzales, or Lacy, all ranked much lower than Adley on prospect lists. But that is the going rate, and I have Will Smith in the majors under control for a long time, so I did the deal.

So, to clarify, I would NOT trade for and keep Ryu over a top 5 prospect at any other position except catcher--I'd much rather have Franco or Kelenic or Rodriguez or Tork, especially in dynasty. But, in my league 14 team mixed, at least, catchers, even ones as special as Adley, have much less trade value than comparably ranked prospects. So, my take was specifically because Adley was a catcher prospect, not that an elite prospect in general should not have much more value than Ryu in a dynasty league. For my league, a fairer comparison than Ryu vs a top 5 prospect would be Ryu vs someone like Riley Greene or Kristian Robinson, because that is about the equivalent value in trades of Adley in my league (I picked them, specifically, because they have high ceilings, but will take some time to get there and have variance and risk, which I'd say Adley does purely because he is a catching prospect, even though I believe he is less risky than those two).

[Sour Masher]

Ah, but what's interesting is that I don't even necessarily disagree with you on that point - I'm discussing the perceived trade value primarily. What fits on his team is a different question that's equally important.

But regardless of getting Ryu for this team, he should be able to get quite a bit of return for what is effectively "Adley's full career". It *should* be more than Ryu IMO.

To me it's like having $500 in your pocket and going to buy a tire because you have a flat and need to get somewhere urgently. Yes, you may need the tire fixed more than you currently need the $500, but that doesn't mean you should get scammed out of the $500.

I like the analogy. In my league, however, catching prospects are not valued as highly as other top prospects, so the only question I am faced with is, do I accept that market forces dictate what I have is not worth that much. If I believe I have discovered a market inequity in my league, I could exploit it by acquiring all the catching prospects, which I pretty much did, but ultimately, I ended up corning a market no one really wanted to buy into and sold all my catchers except Will Smith, the one I decided to keep, for what the market would allow me to get (it was an experiment that I did not lose on, as I got the catchers cheap to begin with and got as much or more for them when I flipped them).

[chancellor]

The Ryu owner declined but he's new to the league so I will circle back to explain the keeper and draft process.

If I acquired Ryu and did not give up Adley, I'd offer Adley/Stras to the highest bidder.

Stras has been a huge liability. The year I won the championship I did it with him on the bench (not IR eligible) and had he been healthy last year I might have won.

Wait, what? You have Stras as a bottom four pick forever and you'd deal him? I'd have to get a kings ransom - spelled DEGROM or similar - to deal Stras from a bottom four draft position in a keep forever league.

[chancellor]

To me it's like having $500 in your pocket and going to buy a tire because you have a flat and need to get somewhere urgently. Yes, you may need the tire fixed more than you currently need the $500, but that doesn't mean you should get scammed out of the $500.

Yeah, that's where we differ. 3-4 years of a top tier SP against unknown results at a position that has a high injury and attrition rate; I feel like I got my tire and still have $400 in my pocket.

[Ken]

3-4 years of a top tier SP

Wait, what? Ryu isn't a top tier SP. Tier 3 or 4, sure. Top tier is DeGrom/Cole/Bieber.

[Ken]

Wait, what? Ryu isn't a top tier SP. Tier 3 or 4, sure. Top tier is DeGrom/Cole/Bieber.

Ryu has pitched more than 127 innings once since 2014. And more than 83 innings twice.

If he's anywhere close to a top tier SP for you, you're doing it wrong.

[chancellor]

Wait, what? Ryu isn't a top tier SP. Tier 3 or 4, sure. Top tier is DeGrom/Cole/Bieber.

OK, if you're limiting to first round picks, sure. But Ryu has been healthy two years running, provides premium ratios, good K rates, and is with a team that's likely on the upswing. If you're blaming Ryu for a COVID limited season, I'm not sure of your point. He's Virgonomic's 3rd SP on a 14-team mixed, with two other really good pitchers with him. I'd give up Adley for that, especially with the other pitchers being in a similar age window.

[Ken]

OK, if you're limiting to first round picks, sure. But Ryu has been healthy two years running, provides premium ratios, good K rates, and is with a team that's likely on the upswing. If you're blaming Ryu for a COVID limited season, I'm not sure of your point. He's Virgonomic's 3rd SP on a 14-team mixed, with two other really good pitchers with him. I'd give up Adley for that, especially with the other pitchers being in a similar age window.

I'm talking about tiers of pitchers. What are you talking about? He's nowhere near a 1st tier pitcher. Tiering isn't a novel concept.

I'm not blaming him for COVID, note above I said he has pitched more than 127 innings once since 2014. That's 7 years ago. Why are you talking about COVID?!?

[chancellor]

I'm talking about tiers of pitchers. What are you talking about? He's nowhere near a 1st tier pitcher. Tiering isn't a novel concept.

I'm not blaming him for COVID, note above I said he has pitched more than 127 innings once since 2014. That's 7 years ago. Why are you talking about COVID?!?

Because its disingenuous to insinuate he wasn't healthy in 2020 due to a limited number of games due to COVID.