2K21 Offseason Transactions Thread

[madducks]

Red Sox sign OF Hunter Renfroe for 1 year/$3.1 million.

Royals re-sign RP Greg Holland for 1 year/$2.75 million.

[revo]

Rangers trade Rafael Montero to Seattle. No return info yet.

[madducks]

Rangers trade Rafael Montero to Seattle. No return info yet.

Rangers get RHP Jose Corniell and a player to be named later.

[chancellor]

I'd have thought Montero would have brought back a better prospect than Corniell. Gotta like Montero in Seattle, though - if the flyball tendency sticks around from last year, Seattle is a much better park to swallow some of those up.

[Ken]

I'd have thought Montero would have brought back a better prospect than Corniell.

Really? Man I had the opposite thoughts, not sure how we could be so opposite ends of the spectrum.

Montero signed as a minor league free agent after 2018.
Montero is 30 years old and only has 2 years of team control left.
Montero is a relief pitcher.
Montero put up a 3.83 FIP this year and 3.7 FIP in 2019 (pretty bad for a RP), and his career numbers are terrible (1.57 WHIP, 4.45 FIP).
The Rangers are in rebuild mode and have very little leverage.

In return they got the Mariner's #22 prospect. They have to be ecstatic to get any kind of actual prospect for that kind of profile, I can't imagine he had much trade value.

[chancellor]

Really? Man I had the opposite thoughts, not sure how we could be so opposite ends of the spectrum.

Montero signed as a minor league free agent after 2018.
Montero is 30 years old and only has 2 years of team control left.
Montero is a relief pitcher.
Montero put up a 3.83 FIP this year and 3.7 FIP in 2019 (pretty bad for a RP), and his career numbers are terrible (1.57 WHIP, 4.45 FIP).
The Rangers are in rebuild mode and have very little leverage.

In return they got the Mariner's #22 prospect. They have to be ecstatic to get any kind of actual prospect for that kind of profile, I can't imagine he had much trade value.

In todays world with bullpens being critical to teams success, I am in the opposite boat - I can't imagine how he had so little trade value. He's had about a year and a half in a hitters park with a WHIP around 1.00, has a 96-97 MPH power arm, and even in what I'd call a down 2020 compared to 2019, still had better than 1K per inning, better than a 3:1 K:BB ratio, and was 8/8 in save opportunities. His conversion from swingman to full-time RP has been really successful. And he still has two years of team control.

I'd think that was worth more than a 17-year old who's likely four or more years out and only hit 91 MPH in the Instructional League.

[Ken]

In todays world with bullpens being critical to teams success, I am in the opposite boat

It's a strange perspective for me. Bullpen arms are still a dime a dozen outside of the absolute elite. Is there evidence otherwise?

One of the reasons they are used more now is because teams got smart and realized that it's cheap to acquire them and they are "disposable".

Unless you are arguing that Montero is an elite RP, the market says he should not have much value. And that would be a difficult argument.

I can't imagine how he had so little trade value. He's had about a year and a half in a hitters park with a WHIP around 1.00, has a 96-97 MPH power arm, and even in what I'd call a down 2020 compared to 2019, still had better than 1K per inning, better than a 3:1 K:BB ratio, and was 8/8 in save opportunities.

Lets be honest, no one making baseball decisions cares about saves now, right? That's a fans' stat.

1K/inning is an absolute minimum for a reliever. If you aren't hitting that, then you are replacement level.

3:1 K:BB isn't actually that good for a reliever.

His conversion from swingman to full-time RP has been really successful. And he still has two years of team control.

Only 2 years of control is not an attractive number when trading.

I'd think that was worth more than a 17-year old who's likely four or more years out and only hit 91 MPH in the Instructional League.

Wait, we are pulling radar guns and complaining about 91 MPH for a 17 year old? You don't think he has room to grow? Really strange take.

[Teenwolf]

Yes, a slightly above average relief pitcher such as Montero, with 2 years of very cheap control is worth a depth pitching prospect. The 9th inning experience is far from useless, he's been tested in high pressure and succeeded.

Now, we just saw Raisel Iglesias, a far superior reliever by every metric, traded for nothing but sweet salary relief and a terrible RP with 88 MPH gas who's likely to be cut before opening day. The difference is that Iglesias earning $9 mil has negative or negligible value added, whereas Montero at 1/4 the price has some value added.

The trade is entirely about salary. If Montero was a free agent, he might get $6 mil over 2 years, whereas his year over year arbitration figures could be cheaper and don't guarantee the 2nd year. So the slight cost savings, the added year of team control, thats worth a low level prospect.

[Ken]

Yes, a slightly above average relief pitcher such as Montero, with 2 years of very cheap control is worth a depth pitching prospect. The 9th inning experience is far from useless, he's been tested in high pressure and succeeded.

Slightly above average may even be pushing it. He has been basically replacement level every year other than 2017. No one is buying him for his 2017 numbers.

And I think the 9th inning experience is overstated. He has 8 career saves.

Now, we just saw Raisel Iglesias, a far superior reliever by every metric

I agree with you there.

traded for nothing but sweet salary relief and a terrible RP with 88 MPH gas who's likely to be cut before opening day. The difference is that Iglesias earning $9 mil has negative or negligible value added, whereas Montero at 1/4 the price has some value added.

The trade is entirely about salary. If Montero was a free agent, he might get $6 mil over 2 years, whereas his year over year arbitration figures could be cheaper and don't guarantee the 2nd year. So the slight cost savings, the added year of team control, thats worth a low level prospect.

Montero is getting $2mm and you think he might get $6mm over 2 years in free agency. I actually agree with you, that's about right. $1mm of value over his contract next year is worth a ~low level prospect. If I'm expecting a low level prospect, a top ~20 prospect who is still 17 and lots of room for growth sounds great to me.

[GwynnInTheHall]

So I should ditch Hirano?

[madducks]

Giants sign SP Anthony DeSclafani for 1 year/$6 million.

Rays re-sign C Mike Zunino for 1 year/$2 million with a club option for 2022.

Angels sign RP Alex Claudio for 1year/$1.125 million.

Mariners sign RP Keynan Middleton for 1 year/$800,000.

[madducks]

So I should ditch Hirano?

I have a feeling that Hirano and Montero will both make a case for the other in 2021 but end up with 10-12 saves each. Smells like a committee to me.

[Teenwolf]

I have a feeling that Hirano and Montero will both make a case for the other in 2021 but end up with 10-12 saves each. Smells like a committee to me.

I like their RP prospect Sam Delaplane to possibly take over as closer quickly upon arrival. Dominated AA in 2019, and he turns 26 in March, so I expect to see him in the bigs this year. Fangraphs gives him a 60 fastball, 70 slider, 40/45 command.

I know relief prospects carry a ton of volatility, but Karinchak gives me faith that they sometimes work out.

Others recommend stashing Andres Munoz, former Padres reliever who hit 101 MPH before TJ surgery.

[revo]

I have a feeling that Hirano and Montero will both make a case for the other in 2021 but end up with 10-12 saves each. Smells like a committee to me.

FYI, Hirano is a free agent.

[madducks]

FYI, Hirano is a free agent.

Good to know. At the time of the Montero acquisition, Rotoworld had Hirano listed as the closer for the Mariners. I just checked again and now they have Montero listed as the Mariners closer. Closer Monkey still hasn't changed. But, they don't update during the off-season. At age 37 (next season) and coming off of 2 bad years in a row, Hirano may not get much interest from other teams.